Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Beet]

I have not once heard the theory that Dems were accidentally turning GOPers out.

The Democratic voter list was hacked. As one who usually canvasses for Democrats in major elections, that was a strong suspicion. 

NGP VAN was hacked. Guccifer 2.0 found a 0-day exploit and used it to get into Clinton's campaign. That system is so old and unwieldy. It hasn't fundamentally changed in a decade.

[pbrower2a]

I have not once heard the theory that Dems were accidentally turning GOPers out.

The Democratic voter list was hacked. As one who usually canvasses for Democrats in major elections, that was a strong suspicion. 

NGP VAN was hacked. Guccifer 2.0 found a 0-day exploit and used it to get into Clinton's campaign. That system is so old and unwieldy. It hasn't fundamentally changed in a decade.

True. It was developed for the 2006 campaign.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

I have not once heard the theory that Dems were accidentally turning GOPers out.

The Democratic voter list was hacked. As one who usually canvasses for Democrats in major elections, that was a strong suspicion. 

I can add some anecdotes: When phone banking two days before Election Night, a man from North Carolina picked up the phone and said that he was never going to vote for Crooked Hillary. I always assumed that it was some ancestral Dem who somehow stayed on some grossly outdated list, but if hacking was involved then that changes everything.

[pbrower2a]

I am careful to avoid predicting what any forthcoming indictment will be about. If such hacking as I saw with the Michigan VAN happened in other states and in numbers large enough to distort the electoral results to the extent that the results of the 2016 elections for President or some Senate seats became shams, then we may have not had a free and fair election.

Michigan did not have a Senate contest, but Pennsylvania and Wisconsin did... and Trump won bare victories there as did two of the biggest corporate stooges in the US Senate. There were other close senate races in Missouri and North Carolina, where Hillary Clinton had no reasonable chance of winning.

The worst possible interpretation of the 2016 Presidential election is a political coup through a rigged election. In such a case, democracy may have died in America in favor of government by cliques of well-heeled plutocrats who get to choose who our representation is where such is critical to determining that government by the Master Class, for the Master Class, and by the Master Class shall not perish in what will increasingly become an inequitable and repressive society. We already have a fascist economy, basically Big Government in the service of economic elites. Sure, there will be pockets of safe places for liberals who get to enjoy the privilege of paying New York rents on West Virginia incomes.

I give this warning to Republicans: if they think the Russians can help them, then think about what the Chinese can do. They are much more adept at manipulating databases, and they have strong incentives to have a more economically-equitable America. Destitute people are unlikely to buy as many consumer goodies made in China than are people with solid incomes. What the Russians may have done in 2016 the Chinese can do bigger and better -- and be far more adept at keeping the secret -- than could the Russians -- even in 2018, let alone 2020.

[Virginiá]

^ Can't help but be picky here - Russian hackers are notoriously more experienced and advanced in their methods/malware than Chinese hackers. The only thing I might credit China with having a possible edge in is the ability to wage a more effective propaganda campaign. They have a lot of people and resources that could be devoted to that.

[KingSweden]

I’m not a mod but this is some serious tinfoil stuff here and also not immediately related to the question of POTUS’s current approval ratings and the trends thereof. We should get back on topic.

[pbrower2a]

Here is the last poll that we had from Pennsylvania, the state from which I most crave seeing a poll. This polling is from late September, but it is highly likely that a poll of the Keystone State would be about the same now. It is from  the last page of "Trump approval ratings thread 1.1" and we are now in thread 1.3. It looks much like the most recent polling from Michigan, and Michigan  is one of the states that votes most like Pennsylvania.

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http://abc27.com/2017/10/09/poll-finds-low-approval-ratings-for-wolf-casey-trump/

A bit old now. Susquehanna Polling tends to skew Republican, so this is was awful.


Polling maps showing this data (and it will be shown once unless I se a poll of similar vintage from Arizona):



ONE-TIME DISPLAY TO SHOW A POLL FROM PENNSYLVANIA FROM SEPTEMBER 2017:  


Approval

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
47% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 46% medium red
under 42% deep red

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark red
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium red
50% or higher but negative pale red
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale blue
40% to 44% medium blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

I’m not a mod but this is some serious tinfoil stuff here and also not immediately related to the question of POTUS’s current approval ratings and the trends thereof. We should get back on topic.

Recognized. Polling can of course suggest when some skulduggery has happened.

The problem isn't that the discussion of electoral hacking is tinfoil stuff. The problem is that reality is beginning to look like something that in most times looks like tinfoil stuff.

Back to the discussion of polling -- fine. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Ipsos is getting really bad with the harsh swings weekly. The results look great, though. Reaction to "Guns first, then due process"?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Ipsos is getting really bad with the harsh swings weekly. The results look great, though. Reaction to "Guns first, then due process"?

Well, the last one was only a slight change from the one before (40/54->41/54).  This could be an outlier.  Let's see if other polls show a similar trend.  If so, then I would agree that the due process gaffe is likely a big factor.

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Ipsos is getting really bad with the harsh swings weekly. The results look great, though. Reaction to "Guns first, then due process"?

Well, the last one was only a slight change from the one before (40/54->41/54).  This could be an outlier.  Let's see if other polls show a similar trend.  If so, then I would agree that the due process gaffe is likely a big factor.

Tariffs and due process could both hurt his impressive standing with Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb. 25 - March 1, 1488 adults

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Ipsos is getting really bad with the harsh swings weekly. The results look great, though. Reaction to "Guns first, then due process"?

...and other stuff. Most people will not be affected by seizures of firearms if they tell a psychologist that they are contemplating suicide or that a court puts a restraining order in a divorce proceeding that precludes a seemingly-violent spouse is to be denied access to firearms.

The "Guns first, then due process" line came later than the asinine proposal to allow teachers and school administrators to keep guns in school, I would rather that a rattlesnake slither into a classroom than that anyone -- including I -- bring a firearm into a classroom. (A cop, OK..., if for legitimate purposes).

Of course I could be wrong on the cause. I assume nothing about a cause for an improvement or deterioration of any rating for any politician. Correlation is not causality, but it can suggest such. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to Zogby, Trump's approval rating is.....

50%

😂😂😂😂

Has to be the trashiest pollster I've ever seen.

His approval Wong 65+ is 44%.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/zogby-polls-trump-approval-rating-2nd-amendment/2018/03/03/id/846597/

[LimoLiberal]

According to Zogby, Trump's approval rating is.....

50%

😂😂😂😂

Has to be the trashiest pollster I've ever seen.

His approval Wong 65+ is 44%.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/zogby-polls-trump-approval-rating-2nd-amendment/2018/03/03/id/846597/

Could be trashy. Could be the only pollster finding the truth. We can't know.

[KingSweden]

According to Zogby, Trump's approval rating is.....

50%

😂😂😂😂

Has to be the trashiest pollster I've ever seen.

His approval Wong 65+ is 44%.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/zogby-polls-trump-approval-rating-2nd-amendment/2018/03/03/id/846597/

Could be trashy. Could be the only pollster finding the truth. We can't know.

On the contrary, when the pollster is Zogby, we can know - we know to discard with prejudice.

[Badger]

On the other hand, these are horrible numbers for Trump out of Michigan.

EPIC-MRA Feb 24-27

Underwater in Favorability 36-55
Underwater in Approval 37-60

He won Michigan.

http://wlns.com/2018/03/01/poll-most-michiganders-dont-like-trump/

Devastating for Democrats.

Well, I took limo liberal off of ignore briefly several weeks ago, and have mostly regretted it. Can someone please tell me how to put into effect the super ignore feature again?

[Badger]

What I find truly amazing is that Trump is able to average out >40% approval in any aggregator. Think of everything he has done, his obscene and untrustworthy character, the ongoing investigation(s) into him/his campaign. It's really something. This guy is a joke, but so many people don't care and even enjoy it, as if having a moron in office is refreshing.

This * 100

[Badger]

I have not once heard the theory that Dems were accidentally turning GOPers out.

The Democratic voter list was hacked. As one who usually canvasses for Democrats in major elections, that was a strong suspicion. 

Link to any credible reports please?

[Person Man]

What I find truly amazing is that Trump is able to average out >40% approval in any aggregator. Think of everything he has done, his obscene and untrustworthy character, the ongoing investigation(s) into him/his campaign. It's really something. This guy is a joke, but so many people don't care and even enjoy it, as if having a moron in office is refreshing.

This * 100

This is how natural selection works.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's been mentioned before: Herbert Hoover presided over the Great Depression, with 25% unemployment and people literally dying on the streets.
And yet, he took 40% in the 1932 election.
 

[LimoLiberal]

37-60 (-23) in Virginia.

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/stewart-leads-gop-senate-primary-but-66-undecided-majority-of-va-voters-strongly-disapprove-of-trump/

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 3/5

Approve: 48 (-1)
Disapprove: 52 (+2)

idk what it was before.

[junior chįmp]

Rasmussen 3/5

Approve: 48 (-1)
Disapprove: 52 (+2)

idk what it was before.

C o Ll a pse

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-1)