Nebraska may have only five electoral votes, and except for one instance all of its electoral votes (Second Congressional District, basically Greater Omaha inside Nebraska in 2008) have gone for the Republican nominee for President after the LBJ landslide of 1964. But Nebraska can be a big political story in 2020 -- and even 2018.
Trump is only +2 in Nebraska
46% Approve
44% Disapprove
Source
The incumbent Governor and Senator Deb Fischer (who flipped a US Senate seat from D to R in 2012, not a good year for Republicans) have their work cut out to get re-elected.
Approval, Governor Pete Ricketts (R, incumbent) 37-40; deserves to be re-elected 39-42
Approval, Senator Deb Fischer (R, incumbent) 34-42; deserves to be re-elected 34-42
Trump approval overall, 46-44
But the three districts vote separately as in only one other state (Maine)
NE-01 45-46 (eastern Nebraska except for greater Omaha. including Lincoln)
NE-02 38-54 (greater Omaha within Nebraska)
NE-03 55-34 (central and western Nebraska, including Scottsbluff and Grand Island)
With the recognition that this poll has large numbers of undecided, perhaps because Nebraska has never been a pivotal state in any Presidential election or in the composition of Congress, it may not be the sort of state that pays much attention to elections of any kind.
For a state that is usually reliably Republican in its voting patterns, this is a very bad sign for Republicans in 2018 and for President Trump in 2020. Not very often does Nebraska say much about the national political scene, but on the whole this is a very bad sign for Republicans. Of courser, NE-03 is one of the surest electoral votes for a Republican, and if a Republican nominee for President got only 20 or fewer electoral votes, he would get NE-03. But when NE-01 and the state at large are shaky for the President, let alone the incumbent Governor and Senator up for re-election in 2018, the GOP is in really bad shape nationwide.
I do not believe that Nebraska's political culture has undergone a transformation; I simply see Donald Trump as a great disappointment in the Cornhusker State.
Note that I have needed to alter the legend to accommodate a bare lead with 45%.
Approval:
55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
100-Disapproval
55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red
States and districts hard to see:
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.
Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.
