European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[CumbrianLefty]

And are you also really saying Corbyn will not be undermined if his base deserts him for Green on one side LibDem on the other?

Well it's possible that the mickey mouse elections and the patterns in them might matter a bit in that sort of sense, sure. Otherwise, no. Meaningless.

Its main effect may be to push the party to a less ambiguously pro-remain position - but as you will of course know, that process has been happening for some time now anyway.

[Velasco]

Razem just got the biggest amount of media coverage since last parliamentary elections because Pamela Anderson endorsed them on Twitter.

It's 4,9% time.

Wow, that's something

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Razem just got the biggest amount of media coverage since last parliamentary elections because Pamela Anderson endorsed them on Twitter.

It's 4,9% time.

Wow, that's something

They won't actually get that much of a boost. I just think it'd be really funny if they did.

[Velasco]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

I'm not sure why you think the Ibiza scandal really would suggest a collapse in the FPO. The kinds of people who vote FPO would hardly be scandalized by Russophilia, and indeed would view the scandal as vindication that the mainstream in their country is really out to get them (and obviously they are). The quaint world of the far right is totally self-confirmatory. That's why it's hard to beat them.

I wonder if far right voters in Austria or elsewhere realize of the huge ironic charge contained in the Ibiza scandal. I mean, the FPO folks are jingoist national-populists revealing they are ready to sell the beloved fatherland to spurious foreign interests. At the end, those vociferous 'patriots' are only in it for the money. It's vulgar and predictable.

[BigSkyBob]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

I'm not sure why you think the Ibiza scandal really would suggest a collapse in the FPO. The kinds of people who vote FPO would hardly be scandalized by Russophilia, and indeed would view the scandal as vindication that the mainstream in their country is really out to get them (and obviously they are). The quaint world of the far right is totally self-confirmatory. That's why it's hard to beat them.

I wonder if far right voters in Austria or elsewhere realize of the huge ironic charge contained in the Ibiza scandal. I mean, the FPO folks are jingoist national-populists revealing they are ready to sell the beloved fatherland to spurious foreign interests. At the end, those vociferous 'patriots' are only in it for the money. It's vulgar and predictable.

You would have a point if the rank-and-file decided to retain him, but, they didn't. so you don't have a point.

This is in contrast to the United States where Hillary Clinton accepted millions of donations to her foundation, which were fungible funds to run for President, from a Russian businessman in exchange for approving selling 20% of American Uranium mining capacity to the Russians, and the Democrats nominated her as their candidate anyway.

[parochial boy]

I didn't realise this was a thread about the 2016 US presidential election?

[Mike88]

Portugal: State of play and polling average, displayed in a table done by one of Portugal's most renown pollsters, Pedro Magalhães: (table with poll results from the first and second weeks of the 2019 campaign compared, in the same period, with 2014 and 2009).

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1131866703128870914

[Keep Calm and ...]

Ireland, RED C exit poll:


Dublin EU Constituency (3 seats)

Cuffe (GP-G/EFA): 23%
Fitzgerald (FG-EPP): 14%
Andrews (FF-ALDE): 12%
Daly (I4C-LEFT): 12%
Boylan (SF-LEFT): 10%
Gannon (SD-S&D): 6%
White (LAB-S&D): 5%
Durkan (FG-EPP): 5%
Higgins (*-*): 3%


Midlands-North-West EU Constituency (4 seats)

McGuinness(FG-EPP): 25%
Carthy(SF-LEFT): 15%
McHugh(GP-G/EFA): 12%
Flanagan(*-LEFT): 10%
Walsh(FG-EPP): 10%
Casey(*-*): 7%
Smith(FF-ALDE): 6%
Rabbitte(FF-ALDE): 3%
Hannigan(Lab-S&D): 3%
Healy-Eames(*-*): 3%


South EU Constituency (4 seats)

Kelly (FG-EPP): 16%
Ní Riada (SF-LEFT): 13%
Kelleher (FF-ALDE): 13%
O’Sullivan (GP-G/EFA): 12%
Byrne (FF-ALDE): 9%
Wallace (I4C-LEFT): 10%
Clune (FG-EPP): 9%
Doyle (FG-EPP): 4%
Nunan (Lab-S&D): 3%
Brennan(*-*): 2%

[cp]

I didn't realise this was a thread about the 2016 US presidential election?

Or friggin' nutcase conspiracy theories!

Reflect on your choices, Bigskybob.

[DavidB.]

^ Please stop this. Take it to Individual Politics. And especially stop with the U.S. 2016 nonsense.

Netherlands: Ipsos exit poll by age. Big ouch for the PvdA: even with 18% of the vote, 48% of their voters are 65 or older, even more than among 50Plus voters (LOL) and CDA voters. I suspect turnout among older voters has been really high. Only 13% of PvdA voters were younger than 35. I propose we call this season "PvdA II: Revenge of the Boomers".

https://twitter.com/NLUS_Politics/status/1131929392085647360

[ON Progressive]

What I'd really like to know is who the 18-34 year olds that are voting for 50Plus are.

[DavidB.]

What I'd really like to know is who the 18-34 year olds that are voting for 50Plus are.

People who aren't enthused by any other party and receive it as their Votematch result, then look into their views and like it. Also perhaps people who prioritize elderly care and are often in contact with older people, either privately (ill family members) or professionally (in nursing).

PS19 to EP19 voter movement. A lot of PVV and SP voters simply stayed home:
https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/05/24/552268/1600x900.jpg (zelfde partij = same party in EP19, andere partij = different party in EP19, thuisgebleven = stayed home). All of this really suggests a very skewed electorate: somewhat older and much higher educated, much less working-class compared to other elections.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I didn't realise this was a thread about the 2016 US presidential election?

BSBob must be new to you.

Also perhaps people who prioritize elderly care and are often in contact with older people, either privately (ill family members) or professionally (in nursing).

^^ I'm 26 and could see myself voting for 50PLUS for this reason if I were pissed at the left-wing parties.

[Tender Branson]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

From the interviews with FPÖ-voters:

"I'm sticking with H.C. (Strache), I'm sticking with the FPÖ - no matter what happens. After all, we all have secrets and they put him in a trap and intoxicated him. The other parties are traitors for the country. I'm wondering what the videos of smoke-filled backrooms involving EU politicians would show, etc. etc."

[YL]

From the interviews with FPÖ-voters:

"I'm sticking with H.C. (Strache), I'm sticking with the FPÖ - no matter what happens. After all, we all have secrets and they put him in a trap and intoxicated him. The other parties are traitors for the country. I'm wondering what the videos of smoke-filled backrooms involving EU politicians would show, etc. etc."

Not very surprising to anyone who has read Altemeyer's The Authoritarians.

[Diouf]

Comments to CTK suggest turnout in Czechia will be slightly higher than five years ago. A representative from Moravskoslezský (third largest region which includes Ostrava) says turnout there is expected at 18-20% compared to 15% in 2014. In Ústecký, turnout was just below 14% in 2014, but is expected to land at 15% today. And Prague is apparently seeing turnout towards 30%, compared to 26% in 2014. So turnout could go just over 20%, compared to 18.2% in 2014.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Aximage poll on the EP election campaign:

Q: Do you think people are enlighten about what all the different parties proposed to do in the next European Parliament?

76.1% No
12.0% Yes
11.9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 16 and 20 May 2019. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.80%.

[Tender Branson]

A non-scientific Krone poll suggests 76% turnout tomorrow ...

Would be nice of course, but it will be much lower than that.

[Mike88]

Amazing map:

Europe from Left to Right
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-05/elections-in-europe-eu-countries-results-map-english

[Helsinkian]

Amazing map:

Europe from Left to Right
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-05/elections-in-europe-eu-countries-results-map-english

So PiS is far-right but Fidesz is merely conservative?

[Diouf]

I have made a polling average of the last polls from the three pollsters, who have continously polled on the EP question (Norstat, Epinion & Megafon). YouGov had a poll today in BT, but the percentages combined to 103,5%, so that shows the seriousness with which even the pollsters treat this election.
Below I will make the distribution of seats among the electoral alliances and parties in the order the polling average predicts. I have tried to name the expected MEPs. Denmark have 13 seats (14 if UK leave). I have also shown those who are closest to a seat (15-18) The percentage at the end is the D'Hondt coefficient for that seat.

1. Centre-left Alliance (1st Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Jeppe Kofod) 32.4%
2. Government Alliance (1st Liberal. Current MP Søren Gade) 28.2%
3. Centre-left Alliance (2nd Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Christel Schaldemose). 16.2%
4. DPP (1st DPP. Current MP Peter Kofod) 14.7%
5. Government Alliance (2nd Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Løkkegaard) 14.1%
6. Far Left Alliance (1st People's Movement against EU. Incumbent MEP Rina Ronja Kari) 12.7%
7. Green Alliance (1st Social Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Helveg Petersen) 12.0%
8. Centre-left Alliance (1st SPP. Incumbent MEP Margrethe Auken) 10.8%
9. Government Alliance (3rd Liberal. Probably farmer & local councillor Asger Christensen/communicator Linea Søgaard-Lidell or business student & regional councillor Bergur Løkke Rasmussen) 9.4%
10. Centre-left Alliance (3rd Social Democrat. Likely Ph.D fellow Niels Fuglsang) 8.1%
11. DPP (2nd DPP. Incumbent MEP Anders Vistisen) 7.4%
12. Government Alliance (1st Conservative. Business woman Pernille Weiss) 7.1%
13. Centre-left Alliance (4th Social Democrat. Likely deputy union leader Marianne Vind) 6.5%

14. Far Left Alliance (1st Red-Green. Current MP Nikolaj Villumsen) 6.4%

15. Green Alliance (2nd Social Liberal. City councillor Karen Melchior or former MP Nadeem Farooq) 6.0%
16. Government Alliance (4th Liberal. Probably farmer & local councillor Asger Christensen/communicator Linea Søgaard-Lidell or business student & regional councillor Bergur Løkke Rasmussen) 5.6%
17. Centre-left Alliance (2nd SPP. Current MP Karsten Hønge will probably win the seat, but prefer to stay as MP, so it would go to former mayor Kirstine Bille or former deputy leader Peter Westermann) 5.4%
18. DPP (3rd DPP. Current MP Pia Adelsteen) 4.9%.

The first 10 seats seem very safe: 4 to the centre-left (3 Social Democrats, 1 SPP), 3 to the government (3 Liberals), 1 each for DPP, Far Left Alliance (Tight. People's Movement on 6.6% and Red-Greens on 6.1% in polling average) and Green Alliance (1 Social Liberal).
DPP looks likely to get a second seat, although one poll had them with only 1 seat and closer to what they poll in the general election. They should be helped by absence of New Right and Tough Line here.

The 12th, 13th and potential 14th seat look quite tight between the four alliances. The Government Alliance is favoured to take its fourth seat (Conservatives narrowly win on 5.3% compared to a 5.0% Liberal coefficient). The Centre-left alliance is marginally favoured to win its 5th seat (Social Democrats narrowly take it on 5.5% coefficient ahead of SPP coefficient of 5.2%), while the second Far Left seat could be the 14th seat which comes into effect if UK leaves. As mentioned above, it is tight between the two parties in the alliance, but in the campaign the People's Movement against EU have overtaken the Red-Green Alliance in most polls. However, the Green Alliance is not far from winning a second seat for the Social Liberals. Similarly, a strong evening for the Government Alliance or the Centre-left Alliance could see them win an additional seat. A third seat for DPP looks like a more distant hope.

[Diouf]

For those who prefer the raw percentages and seats

Social Democrats 22.1% 4 seats
SPP 10.3% 1 seat

Liberals 19.9% 3 seats
Conservatives 5.3% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0 seats

DPP 14.7% 2 seats

People's Movement against the EU 6.6% 1 seat
Red-Green Alliance 6.1% 1 seat (if UK leaves)

Social Liberals 8.8% 1 seat
Alternative 3.1% 0 seats

I will vote for the Liberal Alliance lead candidate, Minister of Culture Mette Bock. There does not seem to be big chances of her getting elected. I hope her strength in Southern Jutland can help her spring a surprise, but it's not looking likely. Anyway, the vote will then help elect a Liberal or Conservative instead, which is fine.

[Former President tack50]

Amazing map:

Europe from Left to Right
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-05/elections-in-europe-eu-countries-results-map-english

So PiS is far-right but Fidesz is merely conservative?

I think they went (partially) with EU groups. So PiS=ECR=Far Right while Fidesz=EPP=centre-right

Of course they did put the Tories on centre-right anyways

[Keep Calm and ...]

Slovakia: 500/5940 station counted (Newspaper Aktuality leaked)
Smer-S&D 19% (-5)
PS/S-ALDE/EPP: 18% (+18)
ĽSNS-NI: 13% (+11)
KDH-EPP: 11% (-2)
SaS-ECR: 10 % (+3)
OĽaNO-ECR: 8% (+1)
SR-ENF: 5% (+5) ...
+/- vs. 2014 final election result

Latvia, 70% counted (leaked by skaties): European Election
JV-EPP: 26% (-20)
S-S&D: 18% (+5)
NA-ECR: 16% (+2)
AP!-ALDE: 11% (+9)
LKS-G/EFA: 6.5%
LRA-ECR: 5.5% (+3)
ZZS-EPP/G/EFA: 5.5% (-3)
+/- vs. 2014 election

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects

[Omega21]

Slovakia: 500/5940 station counted (Newspaper Aktuality leaked)
Smer-S&D 19% (-5)
PS/S-ALDE/EPP: 18% (+18)
ĽSNS-NI: 13% (+11)
KDH-EPP: 11% (-2)
SaS-ECR: 10 % (+3)
OĽaNO-ECR: 8% (+1)
SR-ENF: 5% (+5) ...
+/- vs. 2014 final election result

Latvia, 70% counted (leaked by skaties): European Election
JV-EPP: 26% (-20)
S-S&D: 18% (+5)
NA-ECR: 16% (+2)
AP!-ALDE: 11% (+9)
LKS-G/EFA: 6.5%
LRA-ECR: 5.5% (+3)
ZZS-EPP/G/EFA: 5.5% (-3)
+/- vs. 2014 election

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects

13% Nazi party, what the hell happened...