Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[smoltchanov]

+206 Kobach. And JoCo reported. Well, Kobach slightly favored, imho. At least - if ONLY these votes will be counted..

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[DINGO Joe]

+206 Kobach. And JoCo reported. Well, Kobach slightly favored, imho. At least - if ONLY these votes will be counted..

No, JoCo hasn't reported

[smoltchanov]

+206 Kobach. And JoCo reported. Well, Kobach slightly favored, imho. At least - if ONLY these votes will be counted..

No, JoCo hasn't reported

My fault. It's very early morning in Russia, so i mixed up colors)))

[tmthforu94]

Another county has already reported this morning, the margin is up to 212. In addition to getting reports from the big counties that weren't able to finish yesterday (mainly Sedgwick and Johnson, 12 total), the following counties will canvas today:
Allen
Atchison
Brown
Cowley
Crawford
Decatur
Franklin
Hamilton
Leavenworth
Miami
Morris
Smith
Trego
Wallace

Not great results for Colyer so far, his camp was expecting to gain votes from canvassing, not lose them. He probably needs to break even in Sedgwick and exceed current numbers in JoCo, and even then he still may be behind.

There's a good chance the election could come down to those unaffiliated voters who didn't fill out a declaration of party form. These votes are expected to tilt heavily towards Colyer as his best group in polling was moderates/independent-leaning voters. I'd say the margin probably needs to be under 150 at least for that to affect the outcome.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, not really seeing Colyer pull if off.  Terrible news that the Kansas Republicans have nominated Kobach.  I hope his tenure as Governor is not as terrible for the people of Kansas as his tenure as Secretary of State has been; or even better, he does not serve as Governor due to losing the general election.

The voters of Kansas are, in theory, grown ass adults who should be able to make appropriate decisions and to bear the consequences of said decisions. We can stop babying the voters, folks

[IceSpear]

Yeah, not really seeing Colyer pull if off.  Terrible news that the Kansas Republicans have nominated Kobach.  I hope his tenure as Governor is not as terrible for the people of Kansas as his tenure as Secretary of State has been; or even better, he does not serve as Governor due to losing the general election.

The voters of Kansas are, in theory, grown ass adults who should be able to make appropriate decisions and to bear the consequences of said decisions. We can stop babying the voters, folks

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/1029378853309952003

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, not really seeing Colyer pull if off.  Terrible news that the Kansas Republicans have nominated Kobach.  I hope his tenure as Governor is not as terrible for the people of Kansas as his tenure as Secretary of State has been; or even better, he does not serve as Governor due to losing the general election.

The voters of Kansas are, in theory, grown ass adults who should be able to make appropriate decisions and to bear the consequences of said decisions. We can stop babying the voters, folks

Yep. These people reelected Brownback despite the fact the he ruined the state because they wanted to stick it to Obama. If on top of that they elect Kobach now, they don't deserve an ounce of sympathy.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach gains 94 votes from Sedgwick, now leads statewide by 296. JoCo won't be reporting until 4 PM, Colyer needs a miracle.

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/1029378853309952003

They don’t because canvassing doesn’t end until the 20th. It shouldn’t change by too much, though.

[windjammer]

Tmth, why is it so favorable to Kobach?
I thought absentees were going to favor Colyer...


When was the last time an incumbent governor got defeated in the primaries?

[Xing]

Yeah, it's 300 votes now, so I think Colyer's done. Hope at least enough Colyer supporters refuse to back him in the GE to prevent him from becoming governor.

[Sestak]

Looks like Kobach has it.

[smoltchanov]

This year Republican primary voters vote substantially more conservative, then in 2016. May be - less conservative, then in Brownback-inspired "bloodbath of moderates" in 2012, but still - very conservative. The governor results seem to confirm that. But it's not limited to governor primary only. In fact, i see oly one rather big exception - COI race.

[tmthforu94]

Tmth, why is it so favorable to Kobach?
I thought absentees were going to favor Colyer...


When was the last time an incumbent governor got defeated in the primaries?

I thought absentees would be pretty even but thought provisionals were going to be more beneficial to Colyer than they have been. Three of the biggest counties - Douglas, Shawnee and Johnson all voted for Colyer by decent margins so he should make up some ground. Probably needs to pull within 100 to have a shot for litigation to tip the scales. That would be a hot mess.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-failure-to-launch-kansas-republican-gubernatorial-contest-and-the-history-of-incumbent-governor-primary-performance/

Ross Sterling in Texas, 1932. Though there is a bit of an asterisk in Kansas since Colyer just became governor in January.

EDIT: I was looking at closest margin, which was Sterling. Most recent according to Sabato was 1978.

[Greedo punched first]

Tmth, why is it so favorable to Kobach?
I thought absentees were going to favor Colyer...


When was the last time an incumbent governor got defeated in the primaries?

1956.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/StevenDialTV/status/1029437235282763777

[QAnonKelly]

How long is Colyer gonna let this drag out?

[junior chįmp]

How long is Colyer gonna let this drag out?

Hopefully till election day

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/SenatorWagle/status/1029443225629741056

[President Johnson]

Too bad... if Kobach wins in November, voters get what they deserve.

[smoltchanov]

And Kobach CAN win in a 3-candidate race. I would be reasonably sure that Kelly would defeat him 1-on-1, but absolutely NOT sure - in the race, that forms..

[ON Progressive]

I think people underestimate how many Rs would go to Orman and overestimate how many Ds would go to him in a Kelly v. Kobach v. Orman race, tbh.

[Arkansas Yankee]

At least there is not a Senate seat up this year.