Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[Virginiá]

Is there an actual poll for this?

[Politician]

Is there an actual poll for this?

Yeah, it shows Colyer ahead by 10, but Kobach down by 1.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

Wouldn't really be overwhelming.  Total projection, no surprise at all.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/carolinekctv5/status/1027681359005921280?s=21

Buckle your seatbelts. Count currently at Kobach +100, tomorrows SOS update should include new absentee numbers.

interesting. Wyandotte by the current count is where Kobach did the best.

[Pollster]

Everything is falling into Kelly's lap here.

[Sestak]

The only person who gains from more drama here is Kelly.

And it looks like we're having a lot of it, as slimy Kobach seems to be willing to do anything to win this primary.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

Agreed

[Zaybay]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

That would be the greatest, and would make the seat lean D, IMO.

[Doimper]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

Weren't there some discrepencies in 2014, the investigation of which got quickly shut down by a court?

[Virginiá]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

Weren't there some discrepencies in 2014, the investigation of which got quickly shut down by a court?

Hmmm, not sure. I don't think I've come across that before, although I wasn't paying any attention to Kansas back then.

[Sestak]

I have twenty dollars placed in favor of Kobach on PredictIt - How's it looking right now?

The fate of your money may be in the hands of the courts at this point.

[tmthforu94]

I have twenty dollars placed in favor of Kobach on PredictIt - How's it looking right now?

Honestly I would say 50/50. ~100 votes can easily be made up and I expect Colyer to have the edge in provisional ballots, but at this point, who knows?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have twenty dollars placed in favor of Kobach on PredictIt - How's it looking right now?

I actually bet on Colyer.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/carolinekctv5/status/1027681359005921280?s=21

Buckle your seatbelts. Count currently at Kobach +100, tomorrows SOS update should include new absentee numbers.

interesting. Wyandotte by the current count is where Kobach did the best.

Quite natural. IF you decided to be a Republican (and - permanent underdog) in so Democratic county, you are, probably, "true believer".....

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, this is good for Kelly, though I expect the GOP candidate to pull this race out with a plurality in November.

I'm for Kobach and Colyer both running on two tickets in the GE

[IceSpear]

Pleaseeeeeeeee let it be that America's biggest faux voter fraud crusader be found to be behind some sort of voter fraud or other shenanigans himself! The irony would be overwhelming and deliciousssssss

Wouldn't really be overwhelming.  Total projection, no surprise at all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kobach agrees to recuse himself from the recount.

[TheSaint250]

Kobach agrees to recuse himself from the recount.

Wow, I did not see that coming.

[AlabamaGujjuGirl]

^ I'm not sure he had much of a choice.

[KingSweden]

Kobach agrees to recuse himself from the recount.

Low bar considering who we’re talking about but good for him

[Tender Branson]

Needs to be merged with this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297191.0

[tmthforu94]

Kobach agrees to recuse himself from the recount.

Wow, I did not see that coming.

Honestly, I did. This guy has presidential aspirations and I think he's smart enough to realize this would have bad optics both this year and in future elections. The positives far outweighed the negatives here, it really doesn't matter too much if Colyer scores a few points on this since the primary is already over.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/carolinekctv5/status/1027681359005921280?s=21

Buckle your seatbelts. Count currently at Kobach +100, tomorrows SOS update should include new absentee numbers.

interesting. Wyandotte by the current count is where Kobach did the best.

Quite natural. IF you decided to be a Republican (and - permanent underdog) in so Democratic county, you are, probably, "true believer".....

Though Douglas is just as Democrat as Wyandotte and is one of Coyler's better counties.

[tmthforu94]

I have had a lot of people asking me what is going on and what will be happening going forward. Here is what I know:

- Throughout today, the SoS office will be posting updates online as they correct reporting errors. You can view updates here: https://ent.sos.ks.gov/kssos_ent.html. Politico is also keeping an updated county with an easier to read map: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/kansas/

- Additional absentee ballots have to be received by today. I expect those numbers to come in early this evening. I don't have an idea on how many absentee ballots there will be, I heard Sedgwick has around 500 so a rough estimate would be around 2500 statewide, meaning around 1700 will be GOP.

- Starting next week, canvassing will begin in each county for provisional ballots. At this moment there are a reported 8,999 provisional ballots, so it is expected that around 6K of them will be GOP ballots. These happen between 8/13 and 8/20. The vast majority of counties will be canvassing on the 13th, though, so I'm thinking either that night or Tuesday morning we'll get the vast majority of those. This includes Sedgwick (Wichita) and Johnson Counties. Wyandotte (Kobach's best county) and Shawnee (Topeka) aren't canvassing until the 16th. I am not sure how those dates were determined and why every county isn't doing it on Monday.

- Requests for recounts must be made by August 17th. A little goofy since all of canvassing won't be complete, but I don't envision the margin to change too much between the 17th and 20th , only 7 counties canvass on those dates (these counties were basically a wash between Colyer and Kobach).

I will keep everyone posted as I learn new information, I am also going to keep an up-to-date (as possible) total on the first post of this thread. We're all going to be experts on Kansas voting laws by the end of this. 

[smoltchanov]

^ +216 Kobach? How did that happen?

Another question: how were conservatives able to beat some moderate Republicans in Legislature? I can understand Schroder, Good and Judd-Jenkins defeats, as these are very Trumpish, and, probably, conservative districts ( >70% Trump), and the very election of these moderates was, probably, a form of protest against Brownback, and nothing more. But Markley and Koesten come from seemingly much moderate JoCo, and, their districts, while going for Trump, did it with far lesser percentage (58 and 55). What happened??? Brownback forgotten so soon?