Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[Kodak]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

There were over 6000 provisional votes, I'm not sure who that will benefit.


Basically this is what happened last night: Colyer outperformed Early Vote and overall just exceeded expectations, leading many to believe that he would pull it out...only for him to under-perform on JoCo Election Day vote. He won early vote in JoCo by 14 points but appears to only have won ED vote by 1-2 points. Even a small boost to that margin and he'd be claiming victory right now.

JoCo had a lot of irregularities and I'm hopeful that any recount there will benefit Colyer since his margin was surprisingly small. No one is going to request  recount, though, until all provisional ballots are in. That won't be under Friday at the earliest, most likely Monday.

At a minimum it's ironic that there were vote count irregularities, however, maybe it should also be taken into account that Kobach is from Overland Park which is a suburb of Kansas City (not that Kansas City has a much larger population.)  So, I don't know that it's a surprise that Kobach did relatively well in Johnson County.

It’s like a repeat of the Illinois primary.

[Zaybay]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I will feel very bad for the people of Kansas if Kobach wins LePage-style. If a majority or near majority supported him I'd be fine with them getting what they deserve, but the fact that he could theoretically win with 40% of the vote is horrifying.

Well the idiots who waste votes on clown Orman knowing full well Kobach could win get zero sympathy from me

You don't believe that Orman (centrist, and past candidate) has at least some following in the state? Everyone must vote for Democrat? What if Kelly is "too liberal" for some, just as Kobach is "too reactionary"?

If they voted for Orman rather than Kelly knowing that Kobach might win, why should we feel sympathy for their plight when Kobach keeps ruining their state?

[smoltchanov]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

And i - for Colyer. I could "root" for Kobach in a 2-way race, but not - in a 3-way. Too risky...

[Zaybay]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

And i - for Colyer. I could "root" for Kobach in a 2-way race, but not - in a 3-way. Too risky...

True, but Kelly was really strong in the primary, and has lead in polling, so I have hope. And with Kobach, Orman may siphon more votes from the R than the D, especially since he chose an R for his running mate.

[smoltchanov]

I will feel very bad for the people of Kansas if Kobach wins LePage-style. If a majority or near majority supported him I'd be fine with them getting what they deserve, but the fact that he could theoretically win with 40% of the vote is horrifying.

Well the idiots who waste votes on clown Orman knowing full well Kobach could win get zero sympathy from me

You don't believe that Orman (centrist, and past candidate) has at least some following in the state? Everyone must vote for Democrat? What if Kelly is "too liberal" for some, just as Kobach is "too reactionary"?

If they voted for Orman rather than Kelly knowing that Kobach might win, why should we feel sympathy for their plight when Kobach keeps ruining their state?

When people have a feeling "plague on BOTH your houses" some of them will inevitably be on one side, some - on another. Voting too often goes along the lines "i am not for XXX, but - against YYY".... But i still don't think, that majority of Kansas people (and Kobach would, most likely, win by plurality) deserves "Sam Brownback 2.0, modernized". Especially - so soon after "initial version". Just as i felt (and still feel) sorrow for people of Maine, who still live under Paul LePage "governance"...

[136or142]

Now besides his voter fraud fetish, what's so bad about Kobach?

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/1027211576842039297

Followups:
Anti-immigrant, anti-Latino bigot, voter suppression zealot, terrible lawyer, @KrisKobach1787, now has tight lead in race for Republican nominee for KS governor. It is dangerous and scary for people like him to have power, and the backing of the President.

.@KrisKobach1787 wants to make every Latino to have identification papers on them, at all time, or risk detention and possible deportation (surely sweeping up many legal immigrants and citizens). It is dystopian and horrible.

[smoltchanov]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

And i - for Colyer. I could "root" for Kobach in a 2-way race, but not - in a 3-way. Too risky...

True, but Kelly was really strong in the primary, and has lead in polling, so I have hope. And with Kobach, Orman may siphon more votes from the R than the D, especially since he chose an R for his running mate.

Well, John Doll is former Democratic congressional candidate in KS-01. He became a Republican only after understanding, that Democratic label is very toxic in this part of the state. In fact - Doll has the lowest ACU rationg of ALL Republican state legislators in nation for 2017... So, in his case term "RINO" may be not derogatory, but simple fact))))

[Zaybay]

That was certainly a wierd race, I have no idea who will pull out in the end. Hoping for Kobach.

And i - for Colyer. I could "root" for Kobach in a 2-way race, but not - in a 3-way. Too risky...

True, but Kelly was really strong in the primary, and has lead in polling, so I have hope. And with Kobach, Orman may siphon more votes from the R than the D, especially since he chose an R for his running mate.

Well, John Doll is former Democratic congressional candidate in KS-01. He became a Republican only after understanding, that Democratic label is very toxic in this part of the state. In fact - Doll has the lowest ACU rationg of ALL Republican state legislators in nation for 2017... So, in his case term "RINO" may be not derogatory, but simple fact))))

I know, but the R is what voters really care about, you know. Im not happy that Doll switched on us, but if he can get some R voters, the moderate ones who dont want to vote for Koback or Kelly, then "please proceed"

[Pollster]

Kelly has been handed a genuine gift with this Republican primary. She should be spending the entire period of time spent sorting out the provisional/absentee vote dominating the airwaves to the extent she can, appearing on as many talk shows as she can, fundraising, and securing soft Democrats who are attracted to Orman, soft Republicans disgusted with Kobach, and soft Republicans negative on Brownback but open to Colyer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Kobach gets the nom, could he help drag Yoder under, especially without Welder?

[BBD]

http://www.postbulletin.com/news/politics/no-law-prevents-kris-kobach-from-overseeing-the-likely-recount/article_5e3dfeef-b8ea-5588-9a0e-83352115046c.html

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[TheSaint250]

So when are the provisional ballots expected to come in?

[tmthforu94]

So when are the provisional ballots expected to come in?

Deadline for them to come in is Friday, so results will probably be announced Friday evening or Monday.

[TheSaint250]

So when are the provisional ballots expected to come in?

Deadline for them to come in is Friday, so results will probably be announced Friday evening or Monday.

Is Colyer still expected to get a bounce, and would it be enough?

[President Johnson]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

[Zaybay]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

To answer your question, this is KS, a state that has, if I recall, only elected one D senator in its entire life. The state is ancestrally R, and so there are many D voters who are still registered R, a sort of WV scenario. We were never going to beat them in the primary, but this is still a great increase from the previous years.

[President Johnson]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

To answer your question, this is KS, a state that has, if I recall, only elected one D senator in its entire life. The state is ancestrally D, and so there are many D voters who are still registered R, a sort of WV scenario. We were never going to beat them in the primary, but this is still a great increase from the previous years.

Well, there were two Democratic governors elected in recent decades. Kathleen Sebelius won two terms and her reelection in 2006 was by a substantial margin.

[Politician]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

You do realize Kobach is easier to beat, right?

[Zaybay]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

To answer your question, this is KS, a state that has, if I recall, only elected one D senator in its entire life. The state is ancestrally D, and so there are many D voters who are still registered R, a sort of WV scenario. We were never going to beat them in the primary, but this is still a great increase from the previous years.

Well, there were two Democratic governors elected in recent decades. Kathleen Sebelius won two terms and her reelection in 2006 was by a substantial margin.

Check the primary numbers for that election:

Kathleen(only D running)-87,499 votes

All Rs-294,504 votes

Compared to 2018( as of writing this post)

All Ds-152,856 votes

All Rs-311,009 votes

[TheSaint250]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

You do realize Kobach is easier to beat, right?

Some, like President Johnson, care about making sure all parties' nominees are the best they can be out of the available crop. Others, like many here, don't.

[President Johnson]

I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?

You do realize Kobach is easier to beat, right?

It's Kansas after all and the risk not worth it. Especially with Goofy Greg in the race.

[Greedo punched first]

I wish Kansas had a jungle primary. Opposition against Kobach wouldn't be divided.

[President Johnson]

I wish Kansas had a jungle primary. Opposition against Kobach wouldn't be divided.

Well, the general election would be Colyer vs. Kobach if Kansas had the same primary as California does. A run-off like in Texas or Georgia would be interesting, but Kobach would probably win the second round.

[tmthforu94]

I wish Kansas had a jungle primary. Opposition against Kobach wouldn't be divided.

Well, the general election would be Colyer vs. Kobach if Kansas had the same primary as California does. A run-off like in Texas or Georgia would be interesting, but Kobach would probably win the second round.

It's tough to say, I think if it were a head-to-head race yesterday, Colyer would have won quite comfortably, but if there was a runoff in a couple weeks where Trump could potentially tweet more or even visit, that could sway it.