Polish Politics and Elections

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The difference in the diaspora vote between other European countries (inc. GB o/c) and Canada especially is hilarious.

I've only just now tuned in to this election (yes, yes, I know). Can you elaborate?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

The count is hopelessly slow. Just hoping the results will confirm the victory of the democratic forces anticipated by the big exit poll. It'd be a little ray of hope in this hour of darkness.

By Polish standards it is not really that slow, I remember worse elections.

[oldtimer]

55.55% In:

PIS 38%
KO 28%
3rd Way 14%
New Left 8%
KON 7%

https://tvpworld.com/73452472/polish-parliamentary-election-results-after-5555-of-votes-counted

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

55.55% In:

PIS 38%
KO 28%
3rd Way 14%
New Left 8%
KON 7%

https://tvpworld.com/73452472/polish-parliamentary-election-results-after-5555-of-votes-counted

I have to imagine that on these numbers, if these trends continue, the exit polls will turn out to be pretty accurate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The difference in the diaspora vote between other European countries (inc. GB o/c) and Canada especially is hilarious.

I've only just now tuned in to this election (yes, yes, I know). Can you elaborate?

UK: KO 49.0, PiS 14.3, TD 12.4, NL 12.1, K 9.4
Canada: PiS 47.1, KO 32.4, K 6.3, NL 5.7, TD 5.0

[Logical]

55.55% In:

PIS 38%
KO 28%
3rd Way 14%
New Left 8%
KON 7%

https://tvpworld.com/73452472/polish-parliamentary-election-results-after-5555-of-votes-counted

I have to imagine that on these numbers, if these trends continue, the exit polls will turn out to be pretty accurate?

More or less

You can see the Confederacy overperformance as well

[M0096]

The partial results suggest that PiS was slightly overestimated and Third Way underestimated in ExitPoll. The error will be similar to 2019 parliamentary election.

[Germany1994]

I´m getting more and more optimistic that the PiS rule is coming to an end.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You can see the Confederacy overperformance as well

Makes sense; this is exactly the sort of singularly nasty party that would produce a "shy" effect even in exit polls.

[DL]

Now that so many votes are in has there been any updated over projection of the final popular vote and seat distribution?

[M0096]

OGB just called Senate for Senate Pact (coalition of opposition). OGB prepared also second ExitPoll that was even worse for PiS than those from Ipsos.

https://stanpolityki.pl

[tepoe]

I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

Can you name some of those seats? I just checked the partial results of a dozen constituencies, and I have missed the signs of potential Konfederacja gains.

1 - Legnica
5 - Toruń
7 - Chełm
11 - Sieradz
18 - Siedlice
24 - Białystok
36 - Kalisz

But if they end up around 7%, as the partial result-based estimations say, at least in some of these districts will fall below the de facto treshold. d'Hondt lottery at its best.

[M0096]

OGB ExitPoll:
PiS - 33,5%
KO - 31,4%
Third Way - 13,9%
Left - 9,8%
Konfederacja - 7,7%

[DL]

OGB ExitPoll:
PiS - 33,5%
KO - 31,4%
Third Way - 13,9%
Left - 9,8%
Konfederacja - 7,7%

Is that some sort of update that takes into consideration the real results that we now have?

[Logical]

I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

Can you name some of those seats? I just checked the partial results of a dozen constituencies, and I have missed the signs of potential Konfederacja gains.

1 - Legnica
5 - Toruń
7 - Chełm
11 - Sieradz
18 - Siedlice
24 - Białystok
36 - Kalisz

But if they end up around 7%, as the partial result-based estimations say, at least in some of these districts will fall below the de facto treshold. d'Hondt lottery at its best.

That's the fun of d'Hondt. Winning 7% of the vote gives you twice as many seats as winning 6%.

[M0096]

OGB ExitPoll:
PiS - 33,5%
KO - 31,4%
Third Way - 13,9%
Left - 9,8%
Konfederacja - 7,7%

Is that some sort of update that takes into consideration the real results that we now have?

No, it's ExitPoll from another pollster from yesterday. I think Ipsos one is more accurate, but errors will be in the direction of this second poll.

[crals]

Doesn't look like Konf were really underestimated. They are only slightly above the exit poll result (and slightly below the other exit poll result).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Now that so many votes are in has there been any updated over projection of the final popular vote and seat distribution?

Antonio V, who's not posting much these days, just told me he did some back-of-the-envelope math at about 50% in that on those numbers had PiS+Konf and the broad opposition at 230-229, with one seat for a German interests party in Upper Silesia, so the opposition should get a comfortable-ish majority given the counting bias.

[Oryxslayer]

OGB ExitPoll:
PiS - 33,5%
KO - 31,4%
Third Way - 13,9%
Left - 9,8%
Konfederacja - 7,7%

Is that some sort of update that takes into consideration the real results that we now have?

Well, here's ipsos's updated poll accounting for the tabulated votes:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1713903473501041021?t=sSDqmIc0FfgA-MCpC9...

So they are standing by their initial prediction, still the strong opposition majority.  

[Logical]

Ipsos second late poll/projection
https://tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2023

PIS 196 (-4)
KO 158 (-5)
TD 61 (+6)
Lewica 30
KWN 15 (+3)

Changes from original exit poll

KO + TD + Lewica = 249

[Logical]

Constituency 28 - Częstochowa is the first one to finish reporting.
https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/28
Seat breakdown
PIS 3 (-1)
KO 3 (+1)
TD 1 (+1)
Lewica 0 (-1)
KWN 0

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm kind of relieved this actually looks pretty good so far. Even though it's just the exit polls for now (at least not only CA is slow in counting ), it seems like the opposition majority here is too wide for a significant change in the final outcome? Or is there any chance PIS could rig something? Poland is still a EU country, which seems that rigging is impossible.

Another source of concern - though Polish posters or others familar may correct me - would be President Duda. I assume he will at first call upon PIS to form a govt and then once the mandate is retured Tusk will be assigned to form a coalition. PIS with these results doesn't have a path to majority. Not even with the far-right party, which before the election ruled out joining a PIS-led govt. I'm just worried that Duda could call for a snap election after PIS fails to form a govt and they remain in power as caretaker. I assume a snap election wouldn't take place until early next year. It could still be a risk for the PIS though, since such a move could backfire.

[Logical]

Constituency 17 - Radom is the second one to finish reporting.
https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/17
Seat breakdown
PIS 6
KO 2
TD 1
Lewica 0
KWN 0

No seat change despite PIS going down by 9%.

[M0096]

Very inefficient votes distribution between opposion parties in constituency no. 17.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Not sure if it was mentioned but US abroad votes are fully counted:

PiS 40.08%
KO 35.58%
TD 8.33%
Lewica 6.62%
Kon 5.97%
PJJ 2.95%
BS 0.46%