Polish Politics and Elections

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Should we start new thread for the Sejm elections or you will Kal change the name of that topic?

This topic isn't long enough not to just change the name.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

EP poll (by "Pollster")

PiS: 39%
KO: 35%
Wiosna: 10%
Kukiz '15: 6%
Konfederacja: 5%
_________________
Lewica Razem: 3%
Polska Fair Play: 1%
Ruch Prawdziwa Europa: 1%


https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/wybory-do-pe-2019-sondaz-zmniejsza-sie-przewaga-pis-nad-koalicja-europejska-6367838477957249a

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

We're still a year away from the presidential election, but here's an early IBRIS poll. Duda may have problems come second round.

Andrzej Duda: 37%
Donald Tusk: 36%
Robert Biedroń: 10%
Paweł Kukiz: 4%
Władysław Kośniak-Kamysz: 3%
Janusz Korwin-Mikke: 1%
Don't know: 9%

https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/311219909-Sondaz-prezydencki-Tusk-pol-kroku-za-Duda.html

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does the failure of Kukiz to enter the EU parliament mean his moment has passed?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Does the failure of Kukiz to enter the EU parliament mean his moment has passed?

He's said to be negotiating a deal with PSL.

So yes.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

I suspect that urban SLD branches discovering they quite like the idea of being effectively assimilated by PO and therefore permanently being in power is just as big an obstacle.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

I can imagine Razem entering into coalition with SLD would have a similar affect like when the Greens entered KE (gaining literally nothing from this, btw), causing a great number of members and sympathizers to bolt. After "never with SLD" is being your battle cry from day one, it's hard to see.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

I can imagine Razem entering into coalition with SLD would have a similar affect like when the Greens entered KE (gaining literally nothing from this, btw), causing a great number of members and sympathizers to bolt. After "never with SLD" is being your battle cry from day one, it's hard to see.

Surely, but still compared to 2015 there are now less "znajdzie się cela dla Leszka Millera" voices, and more and more Razem supporters are thinking about such coalition. Not mentioning that Razem was ready to do that even before EP elections.

[DavidB.]

Are there any clickable results maps for the EU election?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Are there any clickable results maps for the EU election?

https://wybory.gov.pl/pe2019/en/wyniki/pl

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

I can imagine Razem entering into coalition with SLD would have a similar affect like when the Greens entered KE (gaining literally nothing from this, btw), causing a great number of members and sympathizers to bolt. After "never with SLD" is being your battle cry from day one, it's hard to see.

Surely, but still compared to 2015 there are now less "znajdzie się cela dla Leszka Millera" voices, and more and more Razem supporters are thinking about such coalition. Not mentioning that Razem was ready to do that even before EP elections.

Another problem with a coalition is the 8% threshold (just to remind: parties and "voters' electoral committees"need 5% to win seats, as opposed to coalitions). After 2015, when ZL narrowly missed the mark, there may be understandable reluctance. On the surface running as the "electoral committee" would seem more logical, but it'd also preclude subsidies, which wouldn't be that bad for SLD, which still has money, but very, very bad for Razem (they even lost their 2015 subsidies) and Wiosna.

Theoretically SLD could invite Razem and Wiosna politicians to running on their party list, but that just wouldn't fly.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PSL is siphoning some conservative PO members of parliament (among them former interior minister) and are talking with Kukiz and Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy about coalition for the Sejm elections. But there are also talks with PO about some sort of deal, although now probably more difficult. PSL still is not really keen on coalition with SLD or Wiosna but also there is growing dissent among rank and file PO members. They are not happy that SLD got so many MEPs in EP elections with little effort into campaign (according to them). Some of them even, according to Gazeta Wyborcza, do not want SLD to put on the list former PZPR members (which is hilarious taking into consideration SLD genesis).

Similarly strange situation on the left. On the one hand SLD and Wiosna are planning to go in coalition with PO (in internal referendum about form of participation in elections SLD members decided that they want coalition without stating with whom but additionally SLD leaders said that left wing coalition is possible only as SLD and other taking part in the elections from their lists, not from the coalition electoral committee - trauma from 2015) but in social media Włodzimierz Czarzasty (SLD chairman) and Biedroń are rallying for joint left list and winking to the Razem. This might be probably sort of negotiation strategy to push PO harder. Opposition is in total disarray and PiS is planing to schedule elections in the earliest possible day just to make things even more difficult for opposition.

So now we have sort of sitcom about really pathetic coalition making. I guess we will end up with PSL-Kukiz, PO-Nowoczesna-SLD and Razem as three major lists of opposition. I still have hope for joint left list but this is not going to happen.

And PiS already scheduled its program convention, planned their campaign are are pretty much more or less ready.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

United Left 2: Wool Boogaloo

As I write those words leaders of parties ranging from centre-left to left (SLD, Wiosna, Razem, minors) are talking about coalition for next Sejm elections. Why this time this is different? Because PO decided that they are not planning to participate in the elections as part of broad coalition. Therefore SLD decided that  it and they are doing left-wing coalition. As I mentioned rank and file PO members were not really happy with SLD getting nice result on their backs in PE elections and generally idea of broad coalition pretty much failed so PO will start in elections as Koalicja Obywatelska (Civic Coalition) but this will not be a coalition - rather PO and some satelite minors, some local politicians, artists etc. running from the PO lists.

PSL will start as PSL - Koalicja Polska what probably will end up as PSL without any coalition member.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So without any surprise president decided that first available date for the elections will be actual date of the elections - 13 October. Electoral committees will have less than month to collect required signatures which in practice means that we will have 4-5 electoral lists participating in the elections in all electoral districts.


Oh yeah, and from another news: Kukiz'15 is practically dead, his parliamentary club is smaller than PSL club and Kukiz himself with his most faithful MPs will take part in the election as candidates from PSL lists (not as a coalition partner). Pathetic end. Although for PSL this might be lifeboat as Kukiz will give them somehow recognizable candidates for whom maybe most of Kukiz electorate will not vote - but still they will be better for cities than PSL candidates. Similarly PSL have deal with regionalist Ślonzoki Razem which will get best places on electoral lists in Silesian electoral districts.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Basically PiS just said that they will raise minimum salary to the level of 4000 PLN starting from 2024 what taking into consideration current wage growth level in Poland minimum salary in Poland would be equal to the 55-60% of average salary. Absolute OECD record if the salaries growth would keep the pace. According to Polish statistic bureau in something like half of Polish voivodships average salary was equal to ~4000PLN (and remember that average salary is sh**t measure, median is much better). In 2019 minimum salary was equal to 2250 PLN.

Just to compare: Left (SLD, Wiosna, Razem) also in their platform have increase to the level of 60% but in 2030, in 2020 2700 and increase of salaries in state sector (which were frozen since PO govt times).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

We have less than month until the elections: are you maybe interested in something in particular?

[Former President tack50]

How likely is Lewica to actually get past the threshold. After all last time they fell short.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How likely is Lewica to actually get past the threshold. After all last time they fell short.

In my opinion pretty high. There is now no Nowoczesna or Razem to siphon their potential younger electorate (younger I mean people not being 50 or more years old) as Nowoczesna is pretty dead (although some of its members might get into parliament from PO lists) and Razem is now collaborating with SLD. I think 10% is safe, although polls are more generous. Still, I think that in the end some of the more liberal voters might end up voting PO "to stop PiS".

[Former President tack50]

How likely is Lewica to actually get past the threshold. After all last time they fell short.

In my opinion pretty high. There is now no Nowoczesna or Razem to siphon their potential younger electorate (younger I mean people not being 50 or more years old) as Nowoczesna is pretty dead (although some of its members might get into parliament from PO lists) and Razem is now collaborating with SLD. I think 10% is safe, although polls are more generous. Still, I think that in the end some of the more liberal voters might end up voting PO "to stop PiS".

Wait I thought Poland had a "reversed" age gap? (With young people voting right and old people left)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How likely is Lewica to actually get past the threshold. After all last time they fell short.

In my opinion pretty high. There is now no Nowoczesna or Razem to siphon their potential younger electorate (younger I mean people not being 50 or more years old) as Nowoczesna is pretty dead (although some of its members might get into parliament from PO lists) and Razem is now collaborating with SLD. I think 10% is safe, although polls are more generous. Still, I think that in the end some of the more liberal voters might end up voting PO "to stop PiS".

Wait I thought Poland had a "reversed" age gap? (With young people voting right and old people left)

Generally yes, but there are obviously some young people who are actually voting centre-left or left-wing parties.

[xelas81]

Does 5% threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions still apply?
And are Polish Coalition, Lewica and Konfederacja considered single parties or lists?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Does 5% threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions still apply?
And are Polish Coalition, Lewica and Konfederacja considered single parties or lists?

They are single party lists: Lewica is SLD because they failed to change official SLD acronym to make it legally possible for a party committee to be called "Lewica". It was blocked in court by one minor party which is former party of Leszek Miller and some SLD barons. So this is KW Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej which for the sake of campaign and not pissing other parties off is using "Lewica" on its electoral campaign materials.

Konfederacja is single party and PSL is also running as a party. So no monies for minors, only big guys will get financed from the state budget.

[Donnie]

Meanwhile 12 days to go in Polish parliamentery elections.

Blue column - average of major polls in August

Red column - average of major polls in September



Everything points to a landslide a the ruling national conservative PIS party

with 245-255 seats (out of 460).

[Donnie]

And current (polls) map of constituencies according to Maciej Palade (Polish Nate Silver).



bright colour  0-10% lead
dark colour    +10% lead