Polish Politics and Elections

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PO and .N have announced the creation of the 'Together for Szczecin' coalition to run in the elections in, er, Szczecin. The high-profile PO MP (and ex-Korwinista, lol) Sławomir Nitras will be their candidate for mayor and some guy from .N I've never heard of before will be candidate for deputy mayor.

I like how Corbyn and Korwin have the same etymology.

Both are old men with very good facial hair whose once-fringe politics have surprising appeal to the youth, after all.

Major difference is that one have party with 40% of popular support and another have party with max. 4% of popular support.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PO and .N have announced the creation of the 'Together for Szczecin' coalition to run in the elections in, er, Szczecin. The high-profile PO MP (and ex-Korwinista, lol) Sławomir Nitras will be their candidate for mayor and some guy from .N I've never heard of before will be candidate for deputy mayor.

I like how Corbyn and Korwin have the same etymology.

Both are old men with very good facial hair whose once-fringe politics have surprising appeal to the youth, after all.

Major difference is that one have party with 40% of popular support and another have party with max. 4% of popular support.

I still remember back in 2015 Krytyka Polityczna were terrified that Korwin was going to come third in the presidential election... and then Kukiz showed up and it turned out you didn't have to constantly rant about how stupid women are and how Hitler was misunderstood to be 'anti-system'. Sic transit gloria mundi.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Diem25 officially got its foothold in Poland, although cooperation between Razem and Varufakis have relatively long history. Today Razem declared that they will participate in EP elections via Diem lists. To be honest for me such declaration is pretty obvious signal that local elections are for them only warm up before EP elections. And this is not that stupid from their perspective but unusual comparing to other parties for which local elections are much more important.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Oh yeah, and abortion sh**tstorm will come back soon, so brace yourself.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, one major political party announced their candidate for the president of Wrocław, fourth largest Polish city. Member of European Parliament, staunch pro-life movements supporter, anti-LGBT and declared conservative. You might wonder if I am talking about PiS candidate?

Nope, I am talking about Kazimierz Michał Ujazdowski, currently supported by PO and now being announced as PO candidate in Wrocław. After many months of pre-campaining for different candidate they decided to support candidate who just recently left PiS. And don't get me wrong, out of the Polish right he is actually decent and lets say civilized, well-mannered politician, (although he have problem with sticking to the one party but hey, he is a politician) but still this is very poor choice for rather liberal city in times with great conflict with PiS.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, one major political party announced their candidate for the president of Wrocław, fourth largest Polish city. Member of European Parliament, staunch pro-life movements supporter, anti-LGBT and declared conservative. You might wonder if I am talking about PiS candidate?

Nope, I am talking about Kazimierz Michał Ujazdowski, currently supported by PO and now being announced as PO candidate in Wrocław. After many months of pre-campaining for different candidate they decided to support candidate who just recently left PiS. And don't get me wrong, out of the Polish right he is actually decent and lets say civilized, well-mannered politician, (although he have problem with sticking to the one party but hey, he is a politician) but still this is very poor choice for rather liberal city in times with great conflict with PiS.

So now Wrocław .N and Dutkiewicz (incumbent mayor, independent but basically PO in all but name)'s people are refusing to even discuss a coalition with PO anymore, their coalition partners from the Wrocław Civic Movement (who were meant to write Wrocław PO's manifesto for them, lol) have broken off their coalition, Frasyniuk has blasted them in Wyborcza for running such a conservative candidate, and the left smells blood and is viciously attacking PO as well.

This is objectively hilarious. I'm going to make a prediction: Ujazdowski will not become mayor of Wrocław.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There appears to be an anti-PiS coalition in Siedlce (Masovian Voivodeship) between PO, SLD, and the artists formerly known as KORWiN.

No, I don't know either.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There appears to be an anti-PiS coalition in Siedlce (Masovian Voivodeship) between PO, SLD, and the artists formerly known as KORWiN.

No, I don't know either.

And this is only beginning of exotic coalitions.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PiS have finally announced their candidates for the mayoralties of major cities.

Białystok – Jacek Żalek - ex-PO Alliance MP and attention-seeking so-con prat
Bydgoszcz – Tomasz Latos - local PiS MP
Gdańsk – Kacper Płażyński - son of Maciej Płażyński, former Marshal of the Sejm under AWS and co-founder of PO who later defected to PiS and died in the Smolensk crash
Gorzów Wielkopolski – Sebastian Pieńkowski - leader of the city council
Katowice – Marcin Krupa - incumbent independent mayor since 2014
Kielce – Wojciech Lubawski - incumbent independent mayor since 2002
Kraków – Małgorzata Wassermann - local PiS MP, chair of the Sejm committee on justice and human rights and of the parliamentary inquiry into Amber Gold (pyramid scheme which went spectacularly bust and which is alleged to have had ties to the Tusk family and other PO politicians)
Lublin – Sylwester Tułajew - local PiS MP and former councillor
Łódź – Waldemar Buda - local PiS MP and former councillor
Olsztyn – Michał Wypij - leader of the Olsztyn branch of Alliance
Opole – Violetta Porowska - deputy governor of Opole Voivodeship
Poznań – Tadeusz Zysk - owner of Zysk i S-ka, one of the largest publishing companies in Poland
Rzeszów – Wojciech Buczak - local PiS MP
Szczecin – Bartłomiej Sochański - former mayor between 1994 and 1998
Toruń – Zbigniew Rasielewski - deputy mayor since 2010
Warszawa – Patryk Jaki - Solidary Poland MP for Opole (!), deputy minister of justice, chair of the Warsaw reprivatisation verification commission
Wrocław – Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka - PiS MP and former deputy leader of the city council, candidate in 2014
Zielona Góra – Piotr Barczak - councillor, leader of the PiS council group, deputy mayor between 2004 and 2007

Notice how there are no incumbents apart from the two independents who run strong local machines and who are using PiS as a flag of convenience.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I don't know if there are any posters which had some hopes with Nowoczesna but today two MPs of that party decided to left the parliamentary club and party. Two rather well-known as for the party members, one is Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus which was influential inside the party, representing more liberals in terms of social issues wing more concerned with abortion, LGBT issues etc. Other one is Joanna Schmidt which is mainly known for being on that famous trip with Ryszard Petru on Madera which caused like 100% loss of his credibility as a leader and politician (although he is not the most clever person I've ever seen so most of the people were not treating him seriously even before that event)

There are gossips that they are planning to start new political initiative with Robert Biedroń, former MP and currently mayor of Słupsk which is now-favourite candidate for candidate for president and Barbara Nowacka, former Twój Ruch politician and main actor of United Left in 2015 tragedy. Formation would be rather social-liberal, sort of Twój Ruch but without Janusz Palikot, but with Ryszard Petru - former leader of Nowoczesna (but his part in that scheme is only part of even less serious gossips).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I don't know if there are any posters which had some hopes with Nowoczesna but today two MPs of that party decided to left the parliamentary club and party. Two rather well-known as for the party members, one is Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus which was influential inside the party, representing more liberals in terms of social issues wing more concerned with abortion, LGBT issues etc. Other one is Joanna Schmidt which is mainly known for being on that famous trip with Ryszard Petru on Madera which caused like 100% loss of his credibility as a leader and politician (although he is not the most clever person I've ever seen so most of the people were not treating him seriously even before that event)

There are gossips that they are planning to start new political initiative with Robert Biedroń, former MP and currently mayor of Słupsk which is now-favourite candidate for candidate for president and Barbara Nowacka, former Twój Ruch politician and main actor of United Left in 2015 tragedy. Formation would be rather social-liberal, sort of Twój Ruch but without Janusz Palikot, but with Ryszard Petru - former leader of Nowoczesna (but his part in that scheme is only part of even less serious gossips).

I have always liked Scheuring-Wielgus, she's obviously to my right but she's always seemed decent and agreeable and her presence wouldn't be a dealbreaker for me in terms of voting for a Biedroń party. Petru, on the other hand, I will never vote for, so I hope those rumours stay just that.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Polls for local elections are rarely done in Poland compared to parliamentary one but there is one done by IBRiS. Poll conducted in late April, but today published. Currently PiS haje majority in only one voivodship.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I call BS on that poll. PiS unchanged from 2014 in Podkarpacie? Kukiz /below/ average in Opolskie and not even on the board in Slaskie? SLD going up everywhere but completely imploding in Podlaskie and Podkarpackie where they were already down to their core in 2014? PSL down from 46% to 16% in Swietokrzyskie, where Adam Jarubas rules with an iron fist, while holding up at 23% at Podlaskie? Razem apparently doing better in ing Malopolska than in Mazowieckie? No, this doesn't make sense.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I call BS on that poll. PiS unchanged from 2014 in Podkarpacie? Kukiz /below/ average in Opolskie and not even on the board in Slaskie? SLD going up everywhere but completely imploding in Podlaskie and Podkarpackie where they were already down to their core in 2014? PSL down from 46% to 16% in Swietokrzyskie, where Adam Jarubas rules with an iron fist, while holding up at 23% at Podlaskie? Razem apparently doing better in ing Malopolska than in Mazowieckie? No, this doesn't make sense.

We always should take polls in Poland with a grain of salt. IBRiS is usually ok and as voivodship level is rarely polled I guess taking into consideration poll statistical error it might give some strange results. Kukiz support dynamics might be strange. With 3% statistical error it would be close to it former result from 2014 for SLD in Podlaskie i Podkarpackie. As for the Razem in Mazowieckie maybe they got more than that 1,4% in Małopolskie but just less than 2,4 gained by Kukiz, and as they decided to put 6 parties they just didn't get in. But I agree that 16% for PSL in Świętokrzyskie is ing weird. And if somebody doubt about position of Adam Jarubas position in Świętokrzyskie just look on that map presenting his result from presidential elections in 2015 (http://www.wyborynamapie.pl/prezydenckie2015/gminy%20jarubas.png).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

RAZEM will sweep the local election because some Facebook meme.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

RAZEM will sweep the local election because some Facebook meme.

Literally nobody in Razem believes this, get over yourself.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

RAZEM will sweep the local election because some Facebook meme.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Hey, do you remember that novelization of act on IPN which you might know as that "terrible act on Holocaust denialism"?

During one day (!) Sejm voted on new novelization of that act which generally do not have those controversial paragraphs about legal consequences of attributing crimes of III Reich to Polish State etc. etc. which was included on previous novelization earlier this year. This morning government project of the act was sent to the Parliament and got included into Parliament's today agenda. So basically in one day they just rolled back all changes, at least on Sejm level. Now Senate and President needs to approve it but this is just formality. I've shouldn't be shocked by the tempo of voting because for PiS this is normal but still this is kind of disgusting.

[DavidB.]

Why did they do it? And what do you think is disgusting about it?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why did they do it? And what do you think is disgusting about it?

Why they done it? Because they chickened out in confrontation with US and Israel. They got nothing and now they tried to revert the reputation losses. Obviously it was stupid move because the losses in reputation are already huge and its hard to revert them and additionally they now will be perceived by some of their hard-line supporter as weak. But maybe they had some deals with US.

What is disgusting? Not what they done but how they done it. They needed just 9 hours and few minutes to pass it through Sejm, Senate and President. In terms of time it was record. They wanted to block any parliamentary discussion just to pass it faster. This is not normal.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Battle for Warsaw is getting more and more fierce. Both PO and PiS candidates are increasing their poll support as the campaign should start officially soon and they are becoming more and more visible. Today PO got hurt a little bit by one city councilor from that party who decided to leave PO and join PiS. But even despite that PO campaign in Warsaw is not getting well, Trzaskowski is clearly showing that PO didn't learn anything since 2015. On the other hand polls shows that "alles is gut" so I guess elections this year will be mainly about plebiscite on PiS and Trzaskowski still is able to attract centre and undecided voters.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Battle for Warsaw is getting more and more fierce. Both PO and PiS candidates are increasing their poll support as the campaign should start officially soon and they are becoming more and more visible. Today PO got hurt a little bit by one city councilor from that party who decided to leave PO and join PiS. But even despite that PO campaign in Warsaw is not getting well, Trzaskowski is clearly showing that PO didn't learn anything since 2015. On the other hand polls shows that "alles is gut" so I guess elections this year will be mainly about plebiscite on PiS and Trzaskowski still is able to attract centre and undecided voters.

I honestly think Spiewak could win this whole thing if he plays his cards right. Trzaskowski is going full Komorowski, showing himself as aloof and arrogant, and Jaki is artificial and blatantly corrupt. A third candidate could exploit this and Spiewak is the only one with any sort of drive (Celinski, jesus christ...). But he has to do everything right.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Leaked internal PO poll for the Warsaw city council elections:

PO+.N 42%
PiS 20%
Razem+Polish Initiative+Greens+Spiewak 9%
SLD 5%
Kukiz 5%
Others 5%
Undecided 13%

Mayoral election 2nd round:

Trzaskowski 62%
Jaki 27.8%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://oko.press/uwaga-pis-moze-wygrac-wybory-do-10-sejmikow-po-z-n-tylko-do-4-koalicja-obywatelska-to-za-malo/


SLD in April when they were planning coalition with PSL for local elections had paid for independent research and they got HUGE poll with sample size bigger than 10000. And now Włodzimierz Czarzasty, leader of the SLD decided to share the results with media. Article is in Polish but numbers are pretty self explanatory. Poll results are for voivodship sejmiks elections.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The changes from 2014 in this poll are interesting:

Dolnoslaskie: PO +2, PiS +8, PSL -11, SLD -2
Kujawsko-pomorskie: PiS +9, PO -9, SLD +3, PSL -13, Kukiz +9
Lubelskie: PiS +7, PO +6, PSL -20, SLD +3, Kukiz +8
Lubuskie: PO +6, PiS +7, SLD +3, PSL -9
Lodzkie: PiS +8, PO +1, SLD +3, PSL -17, Kukiz +6
Mazowieckie: PiS +9, PO -2, PSL -10, SLD +2
Malopolskie: PiS +1, PO -7, PSL -6, SLD +4, Kukiz +7
Opolskie: PO +4, PiS +7, German Minority -2, PSL -10, SLD -3, Kukiz +8
Podkarpackie: PiS NC, PO NC, PSL -9, SLD -2, Kukiz +6
Podlaskie: PiS +4, PSL -5, PO -2, SLD -3, Kukiz +5,
Pomorskie: PO -5, PiS +5, SLD +2, PSL -8
Slaskie: PiS +8, PO -2, SLD +4, Silesian Regionalists +1, PSL -6
Swietokrzyskie: PiS +17, PSL -29, SLD +6, PO -1
Warminsko-mazurskie: PiS +12, PO +3, PSL -24, SLD -2
Wielkopolskie: PiS +14, PO +2, PSL -15, SLD +2
Zachodniopomorskie: PiS +9, PO -5, SLD +4, PSL -11