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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Realignment
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Author Topic: Realignment  (Read 1868 times)
12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« on: May 01, 2004, 05:05:59 pm »

Since this didn't get much attention where I put it before, I'll just move it here and give it it's own thread.



Okay, this whole idea is just stupid.  The only reason why things are the way they are now is because we are in a period of deallignment heading into a new realignment.  It has nothing to do with the Reagan Revelution being bad for America, although the realignment is being caused by it..  Here are some of the signs that realignment is taking place:

1)  Many party switchers, ticket spliters and independents

2) 3rd party candidates become more important in deciding elections

3)The Electoral College Misfires

4) Special interests groups become as important as goverment institutions in governing.

5) Courts become more important than legislature in deciding issues facing the country.

6) Increasing partisanship by the two parties in Congress.

7) Long periods of divided government or slim party control.

Gee, that sounds a lot like today doesn't it?  Realignment has happened 6 times in our nations past and we have always emerged from it in the past.

If Bush wins, common consensus says that the realignment will be sealed and we will enter what serious Political Scientists are already calling the "Republican Era".

If Kerry wins, then we will continue in a period of dealignment, perhapes for the next two decades.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2004, 05:54:00 pm »

We're ENTERING a Republican era? 1 Democrat has received more than 51% of the vote in a presidential election since the end of WWII and that was 40 years ago... Wink

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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2004, 05:56:07 pm »

We're ENTERING a Republican era? 1 Democrat has received more than 51% of the vote in a presidential election since the end of WWII and that was 40 years ago... Wink



Look at congress.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2004, 05:58:46 pm »

We're ENTERING a Republican era? 1 Democrat has received more than 51% of the vote in a presidential election since the end of WWII and that was 40 years ago... Wink



Look at congress.

Lol, I know, I know. But it still makes a point doesn't it? Dominance can be viewed from different perspectives. I don't really think that we're entering an era of any sort, simply b/c the parties will tend to adapt to changing circumstances. I see the Republican party being forced to change the most, simply b/c it seems reasonable to expect that the conservative Southern rural WASPs will face a decline in numbers in the future.
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Tarazis
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2005, 03:34:55 pm »

1)  Many party switchers, ticket spliters and independents

it's a normal thing. i think that it is more to do with the decrees in loyalty to party and more chosing people on there own meret....if that makes sence.....

2) 3rd party candidates become more important in deciding elections

J. Strom Thurmond 1948, George Wallace 1968, H. Ross Perot 1992 were much biggrer in electoral terms than Ralph Nader or Pat Buchanan in 2000

3)The Electoral College Misfires

That is an institutional thing, not a trend of voters

4) Special interests groups become as important as goverment institutions in governing.

There has always been special interests and there always will be as long as we have different interests and dreams

5) Courts become more important than legislature in deciding issues facing the country.

I think that courts have been more important in changing the direction of socity and in protecting minority rights agains the status quo.

6) Increasing partisanship by the two parties in Congress.

Not anymore

7) Long periods of divided government or slim party control.

in ireland it's 25years since we has one party government. its the norm in europe, your actually joining the majority here.....but this is an outcome of you election process....
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2005, 05:52:17 pm »

Looking back at this, isn't it's strange how we often overlook important facts?
Because the little piece Soulty wrote is, in many ways, very accurate but (and this is with the benefit of good old 20/20 hindsight) the overall prediction is wrong because of an important fact that everyone (us, political analysists, politicians, the media etc etc etc) failed to notice; that the Presidency of Bill Clinton was a fluke.
Think about it; we all know, deep down at the very least, that his victory in 1992 was pretty damn freakish, I don't think I need to point out why.
But... what we still haven't come to terms with is the fact that his re-election was just as big a fluke, and maybe even a larger one. Bubba was re-elected for three main reasons:

1. A booming economy, the creation of which had nothing to do with him whatsoever and which was largely built on sand (there might be a wee bit of hyperbole here, but the basic point remains true).
2. The fact that he had adopted the more popular aspects of the Congressional GOP's policies (especially Welfare Reform) and was able to get away with it.
3. Ross Perot running again.

Now, when you take all of that into consideration, everything starts to make sense doesn't it? Let's look at election cycles:

1994; GOP: House, Senate
1996; GOP: House, Senate. Dems: White House
2000; GOP: House, White House. Tied: Senate
2002; GOP: House, Senate
2004; GOP: House, Senate, White House

Notice anything? The only major victory for the Democratic Party from 1994 until now was the 1996 Presidential Election... which seems to have been more than a little bit of a fluke, especially when you consider the party's failure to topple a beatable GOP majority in the House.
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WI_Dem
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2005, 10:25:40 am »

There has been a Conservative/Republican majority in this country since the early 70s. While the Democrats nominally held control of the House, there were still many southern Dems who hadn't switched yet.
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Virginian87
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2005, 11:35:40 am »

While the Democrats nominally held control of the House, there were still many southern Dems who hadn't switched yet.

Those were the good old days, when there were still conservatives in the Democratic Party and we controlled the South. 

Too bad that's almost completely disappeared.

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MasterJedi
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« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2005, 11:48:48 am »

While the Democrats nominally held control of the House, there were still many southern Dems who hadn't switched yet.

Those were the good old days, when there were still conservatives in the Democratic Party and we controlled the South. 

Too bad that's almost completely disappeared.



That's too bad for your party but not mine. Smiley
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