2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[BudgieForce]

My mind model has Democrats picking up 234 seats exactly, with Mia Love being the lone hold out.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Wall Street Journal:

Democrats 50%
Republicans 40%

Source

Same poll gives Trump one of his best approval ratings at 44%. So little bit for everyone.

[BudgieForce]

Not to jump on the bandwagon, but I would really like to see Sean T. comment on the new Generic Ballot numbers after he went on TV and said the blue wave is now a "dead heat".

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1004710309662257154

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1004710996588589056

[Bandit3 the Worker]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

[Adam Griffin]

Perhaps a dumb way to look at it, but if you take these intensity measurements for the two parties and overlap it with the most recent partisan self-identification figures, it's a 60/40 split in favor of Democrats - and that doesn't take into account any breaking of enthusiastic independents to the Dems.

However, another way to look at it is to use Gallup's three-way party affiliation figures and account for  "independents" who are clear leaners; among those who are enthusiastic, it's a 51-33 lead in favor of Dems. Considering that these "enthusiastic" voters are 52% of RVs, that's a significant majority of your midterm voters with a near 20-point lean in favor of Dems. I just wish we had more up-to-date figures for this data-set (last one Gallup did w/ leaners pushed was in December).

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is what I don’t get about Pelosi. She apparently gave candidates a blessing to run on not voting for her but it’s looking increasingly like that is going to be a lot of candidates. So she seems to of set herself up for a humiliating ouster of a blue wave does hit but too many candidates pledged not to vote for her over retiring with dignity

[Gass3268]

This is what I don’t get about Pelosi. She apparently gave candidates a blessing to run on not voting for her but it’s looking increasingly like that is going to be a lot of candidates. So she seems to of set herself up for a humiliating ouster of a blue wave does hit but too many candidates pledged not to vote for her over retiring with dignity

Who's said that? So far I only know of Lamb (PA-17) and Tucker (AR-02).

Also if it comes down to a Democratic House majority, I don't doubt she would have an issue stepping aside.

[Politician]

If Democrats take back the House in 2018, will they remove Pelosi from House Speaker?

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is what I don’t get about Pelosi. She apparently gave candidates a blessing to run on not voting for her but it’s looking increasingly like that is going to be a lot of candidates. So she seems to of set herself up for a humiliating ouster of a blue wave does hit but too many candidates pledged not to vote for her over retiring with dignity

Who's said that? So far I only know of Lamb (PA-17) and Tucker (AR-02).

Also if it comes down to a Democratic House majority, I don't doubt she would have an issue stepping aside.

I don’t have the full list but I know Pat Davis (KS-04) and Gil Cisneros (CA-39) also said they’ll vote for someone else

[Gass3268]

This is what I don’t get about Pelosi. She apparently gave candidates a blessing to run on not voting for her but it’s looking increasingly like that is going to be a lot of candidates. So she seems to of set herself up for a humiliating ouster of a blue wave does hit but too many candidates pledged not to vote for her over retiring with dignity

Who's said that? So far I only know of Lamb (PA-17) and Tucker (AR-02).

Also if it comes down to a Democratic House majority, I don't doubt she would have an issue stepping aside.

I don’t have the full list but I know Pat Davis (KS-04) and Gil Cisneros (CA-39) also said they’ll vote for someone else

Ah, I forgot about Davis and didn't know about Cisneros. Tucker and Davis probably wouldn't matter in the long run as if they are winning she'll have enough votes for the majority. Cisneros and Lamb are in more the concerning camp as they are both necessary for a majority.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Democrats take back the House in 2018, will they remove Pelosi from House Speaker?

If they have a very narrow majority, I think she might step aside rather than lose a vote for it.  If they have a comfortable majority, I'm sure she'll run again and win.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1004710309662257154

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1004710996588589056

Generic ballot poll is 50-40% Dem. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-economic-satisfaction-under-trump-isn-t-helping-his-party-n880721

But, a red wave is coming!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

[Brittain33]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

Pelosi is a very effective leader who is unpopular. We'll have to see if she has the votes to be Speaker—that's going to resolve it one way or another. (And if Dems are a minority, she definitely steps down.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the addition of the recent polls that have been mostly good for the Democrats, the 538 average is at D+7.5 (47.1-39.6), which is the largest difference since May 2 ( D+7.8 ).

[Landslide Lyndon]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

Ruffini is even worse. And to think these guys were rabid NeverTrumpers just two years ago.

[Devout Centrist]

Some good recent numbers for Democrats. But where are the live caller polls?

RIP

[KingSweden]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

To be fair, “check back in a week” is not terrible advice prima facie - however, it still ignores that the “shift” came during an unusual lull in non-Internet tracker polls

[Gass3268]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

To be fair, “check back in a week” is not terrible advice prima facie - however, it still ignores that the “shift” came during an unusual lull in non-Internet tracker polls

The fact that their model will ensure that Trashy Rassy will always be included in the average due to their frequency, but high quality polls that occur at best only once a month will gradually be pushed out, is a big reason why RCP is the worst of the 3 aggregates.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

Pelosi is a very effective leader who is unpopular. We'll have to see if she has the votes to be Speaker—that's going to resolve it one way or another. (And if Dems are a minority, she definitely steps down.)

I'd go a step farther and say she is unpopular precisely *because* she is effective.

[Landslide Lyndon]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

Pelosi is a very effective leader who is unpopular. We'll have to see if she has the votes to be Speaker—that's going to resolve it one way or another. (And if Dems are a minority, she definitely steps down.)

I'd go a step farther and say she is unpopular precisely *because* she is effective.

Isn't it funny how all these reporters and analysts notice only the unpopularity or females politicians?

[IceSpear]

To be quite frank, the Democrats need to find a better leader than Pelosi.

Pelosi is a very effective leader who is unpopular. We'll have to see if she has the votes to be Speaker—that's going to resolve it one way or another. (And if Dems are a minority, she definitely steps down.)

I'd go a step farther and say she is unpopular precisely *because* she is effective.

Isn't it funny how all these reporters and analysts notice only the unpopularity or females politicians?

You forgot black. Obama's 46% approval rating in 2010 was "anemic." Trump's 42% approval rating in 2018 makes him "popular." lol

[KingSweden]

He’s such a ing hack

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1004735088180031490?s=21

To be fair, “check back in a week” is not terrible advice prima facie - however, it still ignores that the “shift” came during an unusual lull in non-Internet tracker polls

The fact that their model will ensure that Trashy Rassy will always be included in the average due to their frequency, but high quality polls that occur at best only once a month will gradually be pushed out, is a big reason why RCP is the worst of the 3 aggregates.

I don’t disagree. There are some flaws with their model.