2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I got to say guys haven't had enough factors like retirements, fundraising #'s, candidate recruitment, and swings at the local level that we don't need to freak out over the CGB? Like back in Feburary Trump was getting good poll upticks and a R+1 poll in the MC yet I'm a blink of an eye Penn got its maps rewritten, Lamb wins, and Costello retires. It's getting late in the gane for the GOP to turn the ship around

A-friggen-MEN

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democracy Corps (3/25-4/2)

Democrats: 47%

Republicans: 38%

Party Favorability-

Democrats 38%-41%  -3 Favorability
Republicans: 28%-50%  -22 Favorability

Others-

Obamacare: 42%-40%   +2 Support
GOP Tax Law: 35%-41%   -6 Support
NRA: 40%-43%   -3 Support


Certainty of Support (!!!)

Strongly Dem: 30%
Weak Dem: 18%

Strongly GOP: 22%
Weak GOP: 16%

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1081/Dcor_GR_AFT_National%20RV%20Phone_FQ_040218.pdf

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/984459168609423360

[LimoLiberal]

AZ-08 Special Election, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Trump won this district by 21 points in 2016.

[KingSweden]

AZ-08 Special Election, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Trump won this district by 21 points in 2016.

If we only lose here by 10 I’d be f’ing ecstatic

[Jeppe]

SurveyUSA poll for CA-49
Rocky Chavez (R) - 16%

Doug Applegate (D) - 12%

Mike Levin (D) - 9%

Diane Harkey (R) - 8%

Paul Kerr (D) - 8%

Sara Jacobs (D) - 7%

Kristin Gaspar (R) - 5%

Brian Maryott (R) - 5%

Race tightening among Dems. Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs saw the most movement towards them since February, while Applegate had a steep decline of 6 points, while Mike Levin has been straggling at the same support level.

[LimoLiberal]

SurveyUSA poll for CA-49
Rocky Chavez (R) - 16%

Doug Applegate (D) - 12%

Mike Levin (D) - 9%

Diane Harkey (R) - 8%

Paul Kerr (D) - 8%

Sara Jacobs (D) - 7%

Kristin Gaspar (R) - 5%

Brian Maryott (R) - 5%

Race tightening among Dems. Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs saw the most movement towards them since February, while Applegate had a steep decline of 6 points, while Mike Levin has been straggling at the same support level.

Could you link this?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AZ-08 Special Election, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Trump won this district by 21 points in 2016.

Franks won here by 38 points in 2016. Tiperneri needs to get this within 10 points, and I'll be satisfied.

[Jeppe]

SurveyUSA poll for CA-49
Rocky Chavez (R) - 16%

Doug Applegate (D) - 12%

Mike Levin (D) - 9%

Diane Harkey (R) - 8%

Paul Kerr (D) - 8%

Sara Jacobs (D) - 7%

Kristin Gaspar (R) - 5%

Brian Maryott (R) - 5%

Race tightening among Dems. Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs saw the most movement towards them since February, while Applegate had a steep decline of 6 points, while Mike Levin has been straggling at the same support level.

Could you link this?

https://t.co/mIiIYyABY5

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, April 8-10, 1292 RV

D 44 (+1)
R 36 (nc)

The D+8 margin is the highest for YouGov in several weeks.

[KingSweden]

YouGov, April 8-10, 1292 RV

D 44 (+1)
R 36 (nc)

The D+8 margin is the highest for YouGov in several weeks.

QPac keeps seeming stranger

[LimoLiberal]

I redid my House/Senate polling chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lEBtD0DPaliUWSZQclSl_HqTZAO_bRrxjDRZPPrAKgM/edit#gid=0

Feel free to view it if you want. I'll try to update it every other day.

[Greedo punched first]

Full SurveyUSA poll:
Rocky Chavez (R): 16%
Doug Applegate (D): 12%
Mike Levin (D): 9%
Diane Harkey (R): 8%
Paul Kerr (D): 8%
Sara Jacobs (D):7%
Kristin Gaspar (R): 5%
Brian Maryott (R); 5%
Mike Schmitt (R): 3%
Joshua Hancock (L): 1%
David Medway (R): 1%
Jordan Mills (PFP): 1%
Craig Nordal (R): 1%
Josh Schoonover (R): 1%
Robert Pendleton (K9): 0%
Danielle St. John (G): 0%
Undecided: 21%

[King Lear]

Full SurveyUSA poll:
Rocky Chavez (R): 16%
Doug Applegate (D): 12%
Mike Levin (D): 9%
Diane Harkey (R): 8%
Paul Kerr (D): 8%
Sara Jacobs (D):7%
Kristin Gaspar (R): 5%
Brian Maryott (R); 5%
Mike Schmitt (R): 3%
Joshua Hancock (L): 1%
David Medway (R): 1%
Jordan Mills (PFP): 1%
Craig Nordal (R): 1%
Josh Schoonover (R): 1%
Robert Pendleton (K9): 0%
Danielle St. John (G): 0%
Undecided: 21%

I really hope Doug Applegate makes the runoff, because he’s the only candidate that can beat Rocky Chavez in the general election. Sara Jacob’s is a total disaster who will have a massive implosion in the general election.

[Jeppe]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

[Chief Justice Keef]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

[Bidenworth2020]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

woah... are we really at the point where JDems are conservative?

[Jeppe]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

[KingSweden]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

My issue w/ Jacobs is that her resume seems thin (or inflated) compared just against a number of talented women running this year, and Levin and Applehate (and Kerr) all seem better.

[Jeppe]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

My issue w/ Jacobs is that her resume seems thin (or inflated) compared just against a number of talented women running this year, and Levin and Applehate (and Kerr) all seem better.

That’s a fair criticism, but bashing Jacobs for self-funding while supporting candidates like Cisneros seems hypocritical.

[KingSweden]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

My issue w/ Jacobs is that her resume seems thin (or inflated) compared just against a number of talented women running this year, and Levin and Applehate (and Kerr) all seem better.

That’s a fair criticism, but bashing Jacobs for self-funding while supporting candidates like Cisneros seems hypocritical.

I agree.

[King Lear]

The reason I support Doug Applegate is because he’s a Economicly Progressive, Non-interventionst, Social Moderate, in the mold of Bernie Sanders (he’s endorsed by Justice Democrats), Plus, he spent 30 years in the Marines in a district most famous for including Camp Pendleton. Compare this to Sara Jacobs who’s an arrogant, millenial, brat, who’s trying to buy a House seat with her Billionare Granddadys fortune, and to make matters worse, all she campaigns on are social issues (primarily #metoo and Transgenderism), and doesn’t say a word about Left-wing economic policies and a Non-interventionist foreign policy.

[LimoLiberal]

Tidbit from this politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/13/gop-house-seats-trump-country-519214

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[Hindsight was 2020]

Tidbit from this politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/13/gop-house-seats-trump-country-519214

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bit surprised Garrett isn't in any danger. Last I heard he was behind his dem challenger in fundraising  

[KingSweden]

Tidbit from this politico article: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/13/gop-house-seats-trump-country-519214

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bit surprised Garrett isn't in any danger. Last I heard he was behind his dem challenger in fundraising  

Being behind is a form of being in danger, just not the polling kind.