2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Gass3268]

Reuters: White college educated voters over 60 have shifted hard towards the Democrats

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[KingSweden]

Reuters: White college educated voters over 60 are shifted hard to Democrats

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Was just about to post this

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Reuters: White college educated voters over 60 have shifted hard towards the Democrats

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This is interesting but the fact that it is comparing it to "During the same period in 2016" strikes me as odd. Maybe give us a comparison to the period just before the 2016 election?

[Gass3268]

MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%

Within range of expectations. I've thought of this as a competitive but slightly Republican-leaning seat, rather than a pure tossup, so a six point lead for an incumbent several months out sounds about right.

This same poll has Whitmer and Stabenow leading in their races in MI-08.

[Jeppe]

Whitmer leading 43-39 and Stabenow leading 48-40 in MI-08, and R+4 seat.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

MI-08 Target Insyght Poll:

Bishop (i) (R): 45%
Slotkin (D): 39%

2016 Results -

Bishop (R): 56%
Shkreli (D): 39%

Within range of expectations. I've thought of this as a competitive but slightly Republican-leaning seat, rather than a pure tossup, so a six point lead for an incumbent several months out sounds about right.

This same poll has Whitmer and Stabenow leading in their races in MI-08.

Encouraging.

[LimoLiberal]

Whitmer leading 43-39 and Stabenow leading 48-40 in MI-08, and R+4 seat.

Stabenow won it 52-44 in 2012 while she won 59-38 statewide, so she looks like she's on track to a 20 point win or so.

[LimoLiberal]

Garin Hart Yang Polling for Amy McGrath (D) in KY-06: https://www.scribd.com/document/375773715/KY-06-Garin-Hart-Yang-D-for-Amy-McGrath-Feb-2018

McGrath (D) - 44
Barr (R, i) - 48

Jim Gray (D) - 49
Barr (R, i) - 47

The poll is from late February though.

[Bidenworth2020]

go gray! (sorry mcgrath)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Garin Hart Yang Polling for Amy McGrath (D) in KY-06: https://www.scribd.com/document/375773715/KY-06-Garin-Hart-Yang-D-for-Amy-McGrath-Feb-2018

McGrath (D) - 44
Barr (R, i) - 48

Jim Gray (D) - 49
Barr (R, i) - 47

The poll is from late February though.

Wonderful results. I think either one could win this thing.

[Holmes]

Why would McGrath release poll numbers from two months ago showing her primary opponent doing better in the general? Weird.

[Bidenworth2020]

Garin Hart Yang Polling for Amy McGrath (D) in KY-06: https://www.scribd.com/document/375773715/KY-06-Garin-Hart-Yang-D-for-Amy-McGrath-Feb-2018

McGrath (D) - 44
Barr (R, i) - 48

Jim Gray (D) - 49
Barr (R, i) - 47

The poll is from late February though.

Wonderful results. I think either one could win this thing.

.
she is doing amazing with only 45% name rec.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

D 69 (+4 from Fall 2017 poll)
R 28 (-5)
 
Other items:

Trump approval: 25/72 (no change from Fall).

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

D 69 (+4 from Fall 2017 poll)
R 28 (-5)
 
Other items:

Trump approval: 25/72 (no change from Fall).

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

If that holds, the Democrats are taking at least 50+ house seats.

[Gustaf]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

D 69 (+4 from Fall 2017 poll)
R 28 (-5)
 
Other items:

Trump approval: 25/72 (no change from Fall).

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

That's pretty brutal. If youth turnout goes up by 50% while Democrats substantially increase their vote share I imagine it would have pretty big impact.

[LimoLiberal]

That poll is one of the worst for Republicans I've seen this year.

[LimoLiberal]

Politico Morning Consult is D+6, it was D+4 a week ago

Rasmussen is D+5, it was D+6 a month ago.

[Ebsy]

Elway poll of WA-05:

[Gass3268]

Elway poll of WA-05:

The Revenge of Tom Foley?

[KingSweden]

Politico Morning Consult is D+6, it was D+4 a week ago

Rasmussen is D+5, it was D+6 a month ago.

So noise, more or less

Elway poll of WA-05:

This is not a district where Democrats should be within 6 (source: used to live here)

[LimoLiberal]

Lisa Brown might be running the strongest campaign of any democratic challenger in the country. I just checked her facebook - she's getting 600+ likes every post and seems incredibly polished in her policies. Independent and internal polling has shown her in striking distance of toppling an extremely powerful GOP congresswoman in a district that favored the Republican candidate for president by 13 points! She is dynamo.

[KingSweden]

Lisa Brown might be running the strongest campaign of any democratic challenger in the country. I just checked her facebook - she's getting 600+ likes every post and seems incredibly polished in her policies. Independent and internal polling has shown her in striking distance of toppling an extremely powerful GOP congresswoman in a district that favored the Republican candidate for president by 13 points! She is dynamo.

It helps that she was the Senate Majority Leader and then helped Spokane land the state’s second medical school as WSU-Spokane Chancellor. She’s easily our best House recruit on the West Coast, probably top five nationally

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac... yikes

But Yougov went from D+7 to D+8 this week.

[LimoLiberal]

Trend in last 8 Quinnipiac generic ballot polls:

D+17
D+11
D+13
D+9
D+15
D+10
D+6
D+3

[LimoLiberal]

LOL at the Quinnipiac poll causing the 538 Dem advantage to go down 2 points --> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/