2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

[LimoLiberal]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

[Virginiá]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

No time to analyze! PANIC



King Lear was right all along! We're doooooomed!

[LimoLiberal]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Just to be clear, this isn't me panicking about Qpac. This is me mocking how horrible their sample is... considering we have Pew, Harvard, Reuters, etc. all saying Democrats are taking young voters by massive margins.

[Gass3268]

Did Quinnipiac change how they create their sample? They were so constant and then they went into bozo world while everyone else was relatively stable.

[KingSweden]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Well there’s our answ r

[Hindsight was 2020]

So everyone is stable and Q has a weird sample. It happens and doesn't really point to a dem collapse but this is Atlas so I'm drinking bleach

[Ebsy]

Quinnipiac always jumps around a lot.

[junior chįmp]

The polls probably went up for the GOP on account of Paul Ryan quitting. They'll go back down again

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Yeah, that's... not right.

[Devout Centrist]

Man, you guys are never a day late. About a month and a half to the day of the last major panic. Seriously, some of you need to grow a pair

[Hindsight was 2020]

Man, you guys are never a day late. About a month and a half to the day of the last major panic. Seriously, some of you need to grow a pair

Tbf this is mostly sarcaism. Even Limo agrees this has a off sample.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I expect a "Farewell Ryan" bump for the GOP coming soon due to the GOP getting confidence that he will be replaced by Scalise or someone else. If I'm wrong, good.

[LimoLiberal]

Lmao. Podhoretz and NRSC and NRCC operatives are now trumpeting the Quinnipiac poll as a sign of a red wave on twitter.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

Yeah, that is not going to happen.

Throw it in the average, and wait for their next, hopefully more sensible poll to fix it.

[KingSweden]

Lmao. Podhoretz and NRSC and NRCC operatives are now trumpeting the Quinnipiac poll as a sign of a red wave on twitter.

JPod is a hack who only ever posts polls that fits his priors

[King Lear]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

This makes a lot of sense considering there’s lots of evidence that the next generation of White people (Generation Z) is going to be significantly more Republican then the Millennials, due to the fact that their the first generation to be totally raised in an age of extremely rapid Racial diversification.

[Sestak]

Lmao wut QPac?

Did they change their sampling method midcycle because they were running to the left of most polls, try to herd, and overcompensate?

[Ebsy]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

This makes a lot of sense considering there’s lots of evidence that the next generation of White people (Generation Z) is going to be significantly more Republican then the Millennials, due to the fact that their the first generation to be totally raised in an age of extremely rapid Racial diversification.

There is actually no evidence to support this and quite a bit refuting it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I got to say guys haven't had enough factors like retirements, fundraising #'s, candidate recruitment, and swings at the local level that we don't need to freak out over the CGB? Like back in Feburary Trump was getting good poll upticks and a R+1 poll in the MC yet I'm a blink of an eye Penn got its maps rewritten, Lamb wins, and Costello retires. It's getting late in the gane for the GOP to turn the ship around

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

This makes a lot of sense considering there’s lots of evidence that the next generation of White people (Generation Z) is going to be significantly more Republican then the Millennials, due to the fact that their the first generation to be totally raised in an age of extremely rapid Racial diversification.

There is actually no evidence to support this and quite a bit refuting it.

I do think there is something to the theory that young people who are on the right are more likely to be part of the hard/alt right, but agreed that there will be fewer young people identifying as Republicans overall.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Qpac usually gives solid polls, but this one is seriously f***ed up. 18-29 year olds aren't going to give the GOP even 30% of the vote in November, let alone 42%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Qpac usually gives solid polls, but this one is seriously f***ed up. 18-29 year olds aren't going to give the GOP even 30% of the vote in November, let alone 42%.

Even good pollsters will occasionally get a wild sample.  Throw it in the average with the others.

[OneJ]

Please ignore King Lear, as he never really adds anything relevant to the conversation.

But I do agree with this point:

I got to say guys haven't had enough factors like retirements, fundraising #'s, candidate recruitment, and swings at the local level that we don't need to freak out over the CGB? Like back in Feburary Trump was getting good poll upticks and a R+1 poll in the MC yet I'm a blink of an eye Penn got its maps rewritten, Lamb wins, and Costello retires. It's getting late in the gane for the GOP to turn the ship around

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Data Week of 4/11: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-04-11


RV
Democrats - 44 (+1)
Republicans - 34