2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Virginiá]

^ Is the GOP winning the House PV by 9 points in 1930 accurate? That is incredible if so. That would be unfathomable today, especially given the circumstances of the economy at the time. Republicans lost like 50 seats in 1930. Did they win the House PV by like 15-20 points in 1928?

[Dr. Arch]

That is at least a D+45 outcome...

I'm growing more confident in Sinema, Rosen, and McCaskill winning.

With these kinds of margins, TX and TN are very possible surprises.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If only gerrymandering didn't exist... I would imagine a similar outcome for the Dems like Labour in 1997.

[Brittain33]

The word "unopposed" appears 77 times on the Wikipedia page for the 1930 House elections. At least a few of them are Republicans and some of them may not be next to candidates' names, but mostly it's Democrats.

[Yank2133]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

[YE]

^ Is the GOP winning the House PV by 9 points in 1930 accurate? That is incredible if so. That would be unfathomable today, especially given the circumstances of the economy at the time. Republicans lost like 50 seats in 1930. Did they win the House PV by like 15-20 points in 1928?

According to the House website, it is (the GOP got 13.1 million votes while the Dems got 11 million votes). The Dems lost the previous election by in terms of presidential PV by 18 points. I could compute the congressional PV manually (for whatever reasons the House website only gives the House PV in mid-term elections and the presidential PV in presidential elections) which probably had some ticket splitting given how the 1928 electoral map was quite unique with an urban-rural divide rather than the North simply badly outvoting the low turnout Solid South at some point, however. Nevertheless, using the presidential PV from 1928 to the House PV from 1930, that's a 9 point swing towards them.

[junior chįmp]

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

Yeah, it does seem that way. But from a purely historical viewpoint, there's never been such a bad combination on all fronts for the party in power: low presidential approval rating, money being raised, number of retirements, voter enthusiasm, generational factors, etc... I think after a certain point, polling doesnt even matter and cant accurately measure the potential losses.

Just looking at the voter enthusiasm alone. The last time there was a gap that large was when the GOP won 60+ seats in 2010. Look at the polling for 2010:



Doesn't seem that bad for the Dems right, but look at the enthusiasm gap amongst GOP voters:



It was hovering around 60% but 2010 had nowhere near as many retirements, money being raised, low presidential approval rating, and the other factors I listed above. Pollsters have only been measuring the enthusiasm gap since the early 90s and that CNN poll is the widest Ive ever seen it

[The Other Castro]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

We've known Coffman was going down since he fled that town hall a year ago.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

Pretty bad for an internal push poll.

[BundouYMB]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

Pretty bad for an internal push poll.

I know you're a troll but just to be clear for anyone else who sees this and gets confused, this is NOT a push poll and it is a very strong result for Crow.

[KingSweden]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

If we’re not beating Coffman, we’re not winning the House

[History505]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Democrats are going to need to keep this high level of energy going all the way to November, and with the way things are, that shouldn't be too hard.

[Devout Centrist]

LL, you said you'd leave for about three weeks at the start of the month. That didn't happen.

You said you'd hope the polls would be better for Democrats when you came back. They are.

What I'm saying is, I don't see what you contribute to the discussion. You pop in, lecture folks on how these polls are bad, and then, either get in an argument or leave. Or else remind everyone you're in AP Gov.

Honestly, this is why I find you less tolerable than King Lear. It'd be easy to chalk it all up to concern trolling, however you want to be treated as a credible psephologist when you lack any sense of perspective. It's clear you take some of this seriously, but not seriously enough to actually make a useful contribution.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

If we’re not beating Coffman, we’re not winning the House

Isn't Crow despised by liberals?

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

If we’re not beating Coffman, we’re not winning the House

Isn't Crow despised by liberals?

Probably not as much as Coffman.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/LoganDobson/status/968243974191411202

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/LoganDobson/status/968243974191411202

Yes a NRSC person is an unbiased aource

[Ebsy]

PPP poll for PCCC of CA-49 (Issa's seat):

Levin (DEM): 47
Chavez (GOP): 39

[Badger]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

He's user Andrew_1918 there and it's been known for a while. They post the exact same links with the same curt comments like "Hmm... interesting" or "GOP bump" to every poll that shows Republicans doing abnormally well (but never any poll showing Democrats doing well). Oh, and the time stamps are a little too coincidental.

Ever since Andrew has been caught, he's been trying to half-assedly trick other people into believing that he's really a Democrat by making some over-compensating remark once in a blue moon about someone like Linda Belcher or Heidi Heitkamp or what have you.

It's utterly adorable, not to mention quite telling, that win limo liberal, oh, I mean Andrew, gets effectively and very oh, I mean Andrew, gets called out with very very specific evidence showing he's just Richard 1918 from rrh, he utterly duct the accusation and hoped no one would notice. Afterwards in another post he very lamely bakes the moderators to expunge all these damning posts exposing him.

Andrew, come out of the closet. You are apparently a happy little conservative out and about on rrh, so your Troll game here is up. Come out of the closet and just join our happy little world of politics junkies. But do so is yourself, not this lame-ass sock of a concern troll unconvincingly claiming to be a liberal Democrat. Just acknowledge haha it's been fun now let me tell you why I think the Republicans might keep the House and Senate blah blah blah and we can have intelligent and fun discourse and debate.

Until then, this troll action shows you're just a pussy, Andrew. Man up.

Wow. Someone had a bad day at home. Hope things are better for you in the future.

Actually a rather good day, thank you, but thanks for playing.

But hey, if somehow trying to distract from the fact that it supposedly grown man invests hours a day into a juvenile hobby of trolling a politics website, and somehow wants to clean that's because MY personal life has issues, well, Whatever Gets You Through the Night

Honestly hope you feel better and can unplug yourself from the vitriol. I know I am trying to do the same.

Whatever Richard

[Badger]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

[Badger]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

You don't? Heck, at this point I'd give it better than 50/50 odds. B currently comes down to whether or not Democrats sweep Indiana, Missouri, and Arizona, and I would give them better in 50/50 odds in each race currently. Do that in a Lloyd any mini upset and some place like West Virginia Montana or North Dakota, and that's that.

Hold a gun to my head for any one of those three races and I say the Democrat wins. Now, admittedly if you hold a gun to my head and ask me whether I'm ready to bet they sweep all three, I'm a bit more hesitant. But hearing the chamber click, I'd have to say yes. If for no other reason the way things are shaping up nationally makes me believe Donnelly Will Survive, the Arizona GOP is probably screwed especially if Kelli Ward is the nominee, and mccaskill is again  getting some assistance from the GOP committing own-goal errors

[Yank2133]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

70 seems like a stretch.

I think Democrats would peak around 40-50 seat pickups. 70 would suggest that R's would lose the Senate as well and I don't see that happening at all.

You don't? Heck, at this point I'd give it better than 50/50 odds. B currently comes down to whether or not Democrats sweep Indiana, Missouri, and Arizona, and I would give them better in 50/50 odds in each race currently. Do that in a Lloyd any mini upset and some place like West Virginia Montana or North Dakota, and that's that.

Hold a gun to my head for any one of those three races and I say the Democrat wins. Now, admittedly if you hold a gun to my head and ask me whether I'm ready to bet they sweep all three, I'm a bit more hesitant. But hearing the chamber click, I'd have to say yes. If for no other reason the way things are shaping up nationally makes me believe Donnelly Will Survive, the Arizona GOP is probably screwed especially if Kelli Ward is the nominee, and mccaskill is again  getting some assistance from the GOP committing own-goal errors

Yeah, I may be underestimating Democrats chances when it come to the senate. Historically, Senators from the opposing party in states won by the president in the previous election tend to do well. And Arizona looks like a prime pick up for Democrats, hell who knows maybe Texas even flips if the Cruz continues to poll underwater.

[LimoLiberal]

http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca45/?source=e180224_0349-fin-ca49-inf&recurring=24&amount=10&refcode2=51451&t=7


CA-45 - PPP

Mimi Walters 42%
Katie Porter 16%
David Min 12%
Brian Ford 4%
Kia Hamandanchy 6%
Not sure 21%


Katie Porter 46%
Mimi Walters 44%
Not sure 10%

David Min 45%
Mimi Walters 44%
Not sure 11%

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

[Gass3268]

Yikes, Walters only matches Trump’s approval in the district.