2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[MAINEiac4434]

Poliquin gonna get BTFO.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2018/02/23/new-poll-finds-trump-unpopular-poliquin-in-tight-race/

Trump at 52% disapproval in ME-2

Ancestral Democrats coming home.

This is also why it’s important to nominate Jared Golden instead of big city ultra lib Lucas St Clair.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

R-internal has Dems up 5

American Action Network:

Democrats: 42.5%
GOP: 37.5%

Decimals making me cringe.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/375566-gop-outside-group-has-dems-up-by-5-points-on-generic

[LimoLiberal]

Anything from those Suffolk and CNN polls?

[LimoLiberal]

R-internal has Dems up 5

American Action Network:

Democrats: 42.5%
GOP: 37.5%

Decimals making me cringe.

source?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/968137928223461379

There's an updated graph of the current generic ballot vs. historic Generic ballot and this is the point historically where we decline from a local peak.

[Gass3268]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

*whistle*

[Wiz in Wis]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That is at least a D+45 outcome...

I'm growing more confident in Sinema, Rosen, and McCaskill winning.

[junior chįmp]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

Enthusiasm polling is more predictive than GCB. I've been predicting a 70+ seat loss and that enthusiasm poll only makes it seem more likely

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

Worth noting that this poll bounces around a lot.  Last 5 previous results:

Jan D+5
Dec D+18
Nov D+11
Oct D+16
Sep D+6

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I have a feeling Don Young could actually be vulnerable if that polling is accurate.

[Gass3268]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

Worth noting that this poll bounces around a lot.  Last 5 previous results:

Jan D+5
Dec D+18
Nov D+11
Oct D+16
Sep D+6

Yeah, it reminds me a bit of a less frequent Quinnipiac poll.

[LimoLiberal]

I have a feeling Don Young could actually be vulnerable if that polling is accurate.

D+16 would be almost unprecedented in the modern era so I doubt it would happen, though polling could certainly look like that going into early November. But the real amazing, beautiful results for Democrats here is that enthusiasm gap.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats are going to be crawling over broken glass to get to the polls.

[Virginiá]

CNN is no stranger to absurd polls in Dem-favoring midterms. In 2006, they had polls such as D+20, D+11, D+16 and D+21. That makes them sound unreliable I guess, but CNN only has those results in Democratic wave years, so perhaps they are meaningful after all 

[YE]

Anyone here know the House popular vote of the Dem landslides of the 1930s?

[junior chįmp]

Anyone here know the House popular vote of the Dem landslides of the 1930s?

http://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/

[Brittain33]

I have a feeling Don Young could actually be vulnerable if that polling is accurate.

I still don't think the Alaska electorate matches the profile of who is swinging away from Trump other than being younger than average. It's heavily white, male, fossil fuel-oriented, not highly educated, and minority communities are well connected with their representative and can vote based on that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The CNN poll has pushed the 538 average to D+10.0, the first time in several weeks that it's been in double digits.

[Doimper]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

I'd be interested in knowing how this compares to 2010, 2006, 2008, 1994, etc.

[Virginiá]

The CNN poll has pushed the 538 average to D+10.0, the first time in several weeks that it's been in double digits.

And in Atlas-time, that is like, years. Especially with LimoLiberal poking people in the eye with every slightly sucky poll.

[YE]

Anyone here know the House popular vote of the Dem landslides of the 1930s?

http://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/

Alright so the GOP won the House PV by 9 points in 1930 and the Dems won it by 13 in 1934. Doesn't list PV total for 1928, 1932, and 1936 though - just the PV for the presidential elections. I would have expected something in the ballpark of a 15-20 PV win in those elections tbh.

[kph14]

CNN:

Democrats 54%
Republicans 38%

Source

ENTHUSIASTIC VOTERS
Choice for Congress
 
Democrat           61%
Republican         35%


Lordy...

I'd be interested in knowing how this compares to 2010, 2006, 2008, 1994, etc.

Historic data from the poll - Registered Democrats which are "Extremely enthusiastic" or "Very
enthusiastic"
Feb 2018: 52%
Sep 2014: 28%
Jan 2010: 31%

Registered Republicans which are "Extremely enthusiastic" or "Very enthusiastic"
Feb 2018: 40%
Sep 2014: 37%
Jan 2010: 49%

[Brittain33]

Anyone here know the House popular vote of the Dem landslides of the 1930s?

http://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/

Alright so the GOP won the House PV by 9 points in 1930 and the Dems won it by 13 in 1934. Doesn't list PV total for 1928, 1932, and 1936 though - just the PV for the presidential elections. I would have expected something in the ballpark of a 15-20 PV win in those elections tbh.

Bearing in mind that the popular vote in solid Dem states like South Carolina and Mississippi was something like 50,000 people (I'm exaggerating but most people were disenfranchised.)