New PA Maps In Effect

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I like it.

[Gass3268]

According to DKE, the PA supreme court is accepting submissions until tomorrow...anyone have any idea where that is?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/8/1739648/-Pennsylvania-will-soon-redraw-its-House-map-to-end-GOP-gerrymandering-How-would-you-draw-the-lines

Tweet it to the special master

After searching around on the web I found no to here mention of public submissions, so I wouldn't be surprised if they outright lied. Politicswolf often comes up with schemes like this to justify him spamming his maps, its why I hold him and DK in very low regard.

To be safe though, I did prepare a report and send it to the master.

Michael Li from the Brennan Center at NYU says everyone can submit a map.

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[windjammer]

This is the map PA House Democrats propose.

I'm guessing that 6, 7, 8 are all lean Democratic or more. 17 is probably about the same as it is, maybe even more R-leaning? 11 is Lean/Likely R, 15 is about the same as it is, 12 is much less R-leaning but still probably about R+5/6. 18 hasn't changed much in terms of R-leaningness, but the Beaver and southern Allegheny county suburbs are more receptive to Lamb [or at least, less receptive to Saccone.]

I don't particularly like this map.

Neither do I, too many county splits.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I really hope the court doesn't actually allow the splitting of Allegheny three ways. Ugh, ugh, ugh.

Also, I'm loling at the capitulation to the Philly Machine here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As somebody who lives in PA12, I HOPE they split Alleghany three ways.

[Gass3268]

This is the map PA House Democrats propose.

That 11th District is hilarious. I imagine Obama won in 2008 and it would totally be competitive moving forward.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I imagine the 2016 race was at least close in that 11th district, Clinton did well in Dauphin County.

[Brittain33]

All of those legislators need to be impeached for numbering a Montgomery County district as the 7th.

[Gass3268]

I imagine the 2016 race was at least close in that 11th district, Clinton did well in Dauphin County.

Someone with DRA accessabilty (I'm at work) needs to draw up that 11th ASAP.

[Gass3268]

Numbers from the Democratic Map:

[Oryxslayer]

Numbers from the Democratic Map:

Yeah I don't like this map one bit. too many cuts, and obvious mischief with PA-11.

Interestingly, they also throw Cartwright under the bus.

Oh, and Politicswolf is defending this map...somehow.

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Do we know where though? I sent my plan to the master at the public email last night (though I bet it went straight into the trash, even though I pulled out some Stanford references), and I don't see any place to submit it at the court site. Hell, this tweet read more like the legislature/governor knowing it is the deadline, so we will see a whole lot of maps being created.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

7 Clinton Districts in the Democratic Party map.

Definitely did not put effort into it.

[King Lear]

This is the map PA House Democrats propose.

This is a great map, I implore Governor Wolf to accept it, because PA-06 and PA-07 will become instant Democratic pickups. Republicans will probably pickup PA-17, however Cartwright would probably run in PA-15 (a open Clinton-Republican seat in this map), meaning that this map will definitely give Democrats 7 House seats in Pennsylvania (they only have 5 right now).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Numbers from the Democratic Map:

Yeah I don't like this map one bit. too many cuts, and obvious mischief with PA-11.

Interestingly, they also throw Cartwright under the bus.

Oh, and Politicswolf is defending this map...somehow.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do we know where though? I sent my plan to the master at the public email last night (though I bet it went straight into the trash, even though I pulled out some Stanford references), and I don't see any place to submit it at the court site. Hell, this tweet read more like the legislature/governor knowing it is the deadline, so we will see a whole lot of maps being created.

Yeah, this is a bad map

[Gass3268]

PlanScore says this map is better than the Republican redraw:

[Virginiá]

Yeah I don't like this map one bit. too many cuts, and obvious mischief with PA-11.

Interestingly, they also throw Cartwright under the bus.

Oh, and Politicswolf is defending this map...somehow.

To be fair, reading his tweets, Wolf acknowledges it is a light gerrymander, but his defense is from the perspective that it is ok if it is to help correct a partisan imbalance that even a non-partisan map would promote. Or in other words, he's saying it's ok if it helps promote proportional representation.

I'm a little biased since I prefer proportional representation, but the map doesn't meet the standards called for in this situation. However I'm still sympathetic to that argument.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Oh, and Politicswolf is defending this map...somehow.

Wolf defends it against Wasserman and Cohn's opinions that this is somehow an extreme Democratic gerrymander, an opinion which reeks of bothsiderism.

[Oryxslayer]

PlanScore says this map is better than the Republican redraw:

Something to note is geography. Some states have dem leaning geography, some states have rep leaning geography. PA leans heavily rightward in geography. This is how DKE is defending this map, by saying dems need to draw a gerrymandered map to correct for this geography. However, as I showed, you can get a 5-8-5 map which could easily elect a dem majority without aggressive lines.  

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wolf's going to wait for the map the Stanford scholar is chalking up.

[Gass3268]

PlanScore says this map is better than the Republican redraw:

Something to note is geography. Some states have dem leaning geography, some states have rep leaning geography. PA leans heavily rightward in geography. This is how DKE is defending this map, by saying dems need to draw a gerrymandered map to correct for this geography. However, as I showed, you can get a 5-8-5 map which could easily elect a dem majority without aggressive lines.  

Agreed, I think you can make a very clean map that is competitively fair.

My guess it that PASC will draw a fair map, but it will look closer to the Democratic version.

[Nyvin]

This is the map PA House Democrats propose.

That's....an interesting way to do PA-16.   

Allegheny is a mess too. 

I guess it does give a good chance of a 9-9 split delegation though,  that's good.

[publicunofficial]

Wolf is kind of a hack who basically says 1) It's okay to gerrymander as long as it gets you a similar to amount of seats to state party vote share (A arbitrary rule) and 2) It's not a gerrymander unless Dems milk every seat they can out of a map.

[Brittain33]

Interestingly, they also throw Cartwright under the bus.

Did they? I thought we're writing off Trump's numbers in PA-17 as irrelevant to a congressional Dem who isn't Hillary Clinton.

[Nyvin]

Interestingly, they also throw Cartwright under the bus.

Did they? I thought we're writing off Trump's numbers in PA-17 as irrelevant to a congressional Dem who isn't Hillary Clinton.

Cartwright would have a hard time in that PA-17,  but the PA-15 numbers are about as good of a NEPA seat can possibly get for Dems.   I imagine he'll run in the 15th.

Currently a good portion of his district covers the Allentown area.

[Gass3268]

Map presented by Republican Activists: