New PA Maps In Effect

[kph14]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

[Oryxslayer]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

Krazen is R-PA. Was that statements wording coincidence? I think not!

[Nyvin]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

A "power grab" is drawing fair maps that split as few counties as possible....as opposed to the travesty that PA currently has for a congressional map?   

I say "HA!"

[Oryxslayer]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

A "power grab" is drawing fair maps that split as few counties as possible....as opposed to the travesty that PA currently has for a congressional map?   

I say "HA!"

I know right, sounds just like Krazen, who is from Pennsylvania...

[Landslide Lyndon]

If there is a throwaway line about teachers unions somewhere in that statement, that's the real deal.

[LimoLiberal]

If there is a throwaway line about teachers unions somewhere in that statement, that's the real deal.

??

[King Lear]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

[Gass3268]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

[King Lear]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

Lear, it is not going to happen.

[Gass3268]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

Florida was only 2 years ago and the partisan composition is exactly the same.

[Nyvin]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

The only way to stop it is to declare it unconstitutional for state constitutions to regulate congressional district maps.   That would be too extreme of a ruling even for the Republican Justices.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, as a follow up to my main post ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282416.msg6022122#msg6022122 ), here is an alternate Pittsburgh area map layout. This version is A: more beneficial to Democrats, and B: doesn't cut any extra counties, so the total counties cut still remains at 7. That said, I personally consider the pairing of the Republican Suburbs north of Pittsburgh with the city a Dem Gerry, so I probably won't use it in the future. But, here is the map.

There are a couple big changes going on here. First off PA-03 moves from R+7 on the first map to R+5 on this map. The county cut that has to happen to the Third moves from beaver to Crawford, where it follows the town and river lines. PA-09 Remains Safe R, though the Open seat Primary now moves north. Under this map, it is likely that Kelly from PA-03 runs here, and vacates PA-03 since his home is in Butler.

Allegheny is where the real action is though. PA-14 moves from around D+15 on both my master map and the current map to about D+9.25. It now, as previously mentioned, takes in the more Republican North, in exchange for the more Dem-Leaning/Marginal South. The Exchange helps out PA-18 become way more democratic. Instead of being around R+10, it moves to a marginal R+.74. Obama won here in 2008, but I doubt Clinton did. Conner Lamb probably is the frontrunner for this seat in November, even if he looses the special.
PA-12 now takes in most of the Southern Corner along with stretching out to collect the rest of Appalachia. It is around R+17.

[Greedo punched first]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

The only way to stop it is to declare it unconstitutional for state constitutions to regulate congressional district maps.   That would be too extreme of a ruling even for the Republican Justices.

I think the majority in a Supreme Court decision for this specific case would be 7-2; the 4 Democrats, Kennedy, Roberts, and even Alito! What makes me think Alito would side with the 4 Democrats? Alito refused to hear a California gun control case because he believed the claim violated states' rights.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is truly wonderful news.

[Strudelcutie4427]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)



PHILLY


PITTSBURGH


1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

[LimoLiberal]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)



PHILLY


PITTSBURGH


1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

Splitting Scranton and Wilkes-Barre is a blatant R gerrymander.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

Man that Republican is a hack, even most Trumpists I know in real life think the PA scenario is bs, disgusting partisanship, for shame.

Steal seats? You mean gain rightful and fair representation?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)



PHILLY


PITTSBURGH


1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

Deja Vu all over again... sad how many people put party over the popular will of the people...

[Virginiá]

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Even Republicans admit SCOTUS won't bail them out this time. Also, I think I identified Krazen...

Man that Republican is a hack, even most Trumpists I know in real life think the PA scenario is bs, disgusting partisanship, for shame.

Steal seats? You mean gain rightful and fair representation?

Basically, yes. In the most cynical way, to many people, this is all just a game. Of course he's being a shameless hack and he knows what he said is bs, but modern politics is all about bs. How much public support your party/"team" has is irrelevant. What is most relevant is how much power you have at the moment and how you can use that to steal or scheme your way into more power (at any cost) or at the very least, keeping what you have.

[Orser67]

Being from SEPA myself, it will be strange to actually have a decent chance at knowing what congressional district I'm in at any given moment. I've lived in more than one place where the district lines curved around me.

Also, here's hoping Chester County doesn't get split between a Berks-based district and a Lancaster-based district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)

So, you remade a 13-5 for Rs, just with cleaner lines.
You must think you're so clever.
 

[Strudelcutie4427]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)

So, you remade a 13-5 for Rs, just with cleaner lines.
You must think you're so clever.
 

Pretty much, and it’s better than the current one. It’s easy to tell which district you’re in, each major city gets to anchor a district,  and all the concerns about town/County splits have been taken care of. Major effect is just trading Cartwright for a DelCo/Philly Dem

[Oryxslayer]

If the map gets struck down by the supreme court, what do you guys think of this one I drew? Its very clean, minimizes county splits, and keeps towns whole (except for Philadelphia)



PHILLY


PITTSBURGH


1 (White) D+38 VRA Black district 45% Black 35% White
2 (Green) D+30 VRA Black district 42% black (most whites are republicans in E Philly)
3 (Purple) R+8
4. (Red) R+14
5. (Gold) R+16
6. (Teal) R+2
7. (Gray) D+13
8. (Slate Blue (Bucks Co)) R+2
9. (Cyan) R+22
10. (Pink) R+12
11. (Light Green) R+10
12. (Cornflower Blue (West of Pittsburgh)) R+7
13. (Salmon(MontCo)) D+8
14. (Brown) D+17
15. (Orange) R+3
16. (Lime (Lancaster)) R+8
17. (Dark Gray) R+5
18. (Light Yellow) R+14

Yeah this is probably a pub map that I could see the legislature passing and Wolf vetoing. But, the main reason that I have a problem with it is cuts. The court said that you should not cut counties or lower jurisdictions at all unless for pop equity. On a smaller level, this probably renders your 4th and 17th illegal, since they are cutting multiple counties for seemingly more reasons then pop. In a broad sense, a map with 11 county cuts, several ward cuts in Philly, and I do believe multiple township cuts elsewhere (only guessing) has no chance of passing, especially when I can get away with 7 county cuts.

With a 5-2 Democratic majority on the court, I see little way a map like this passes. But, like your r-gerryed US in the geography and demographics tab, it is a nice exercise.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Assuming the maps are re-drawn, is the PA-18 Special election going to be held on the new lines or the old lines?