New PA Maps In Effect

[IceSpear]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

I don't see the courts signing off on a map that just throws Meehan under the bus and keeps the rest of the state similarly gerrymandered. They're going to have to give a bit somewhere else too, most likely in Costello's district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

I don't see the courts signing off on a map that just throws Meehan under the bus and keeps the rest of the state similarly gerrymandered. They're going to have to give a bit somewhere else too, most likely in Costello's district.

There is also that minor thing about Wolff signing off the maps.

[Nyvin]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

If they move PA-7 almost entirely within Delaware County, then that still leaves Chester County for PA-6, which would be at most a tossup seat.    They really can't do much with PA-8 since the court order is saying no county/municipal splits and Bucks is almost perfectly a district by itself.

Also if the "No County Splits" is taken heavily enough and Allegheny county is only permitted to have 2 districts in it, then the second district outside of Pittsburgh would be Lean R at the most.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait how can SCOTUS hear a case that was decided based on the Pennsylvania Constitution, right?

Wouldn't they need to declare the Pennsylvania Constitution unconstitutional to overturn it?

They can but SCOTUS will probably reject the appeal since the ruling is based on the PA constitution.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

[King Lear]

What are the chances the Supreme Court intervenes in this?

[Hoosier_Nick]

In all honesty, this probably doesn't change the midterms much, as people have pointed out. Democrats will gain PA-07 and probably PA-06, though gaining 2 seats was likely the most common result after 2018. I consider this more of a pro-democracy win than pro-democrat, tbh.

[Brittain33]

What are the chances the Supreme Court intervenes in this?

There is one precedent, Florida, and they didn't.

[Oryxslayer]

In all honesty, this probably doesn't change the midterms much, as people have pointed out. Democrats will gain PA-07 and probably PA-06, though gaining 2 seats was likely the most common result after 2018. I consider this more of a pro-democracy win than pro-democrat, tbh.

Wat? Pa-15 is Open, and currently is lean/tilt R at R+4. It probably becomes a easy dem pickup once it becomes a tight R+1/R+0 PVI.

[Gass3268]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

[IceSpear]

In all honesty, this probably doesn't change the midterms much, as people have pointed out. Democrats will gain PA-07 and probably PA-06, though gaining 2 seats was likely the most common result after 2018. I consider this more of a pro-democracy win than pro-democrat, tbh.

The 6th and 7th (pre scandal anyway) were hardly guaranteed to fall even in a D wave. Though it sure is convenient for the PA Republicans an easy target to throw under the bus emerged right before this news broke. Coincidence? I wonder...

As someone else said, Dem chances could also be helped in the open Lehigh Valley district.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

[Greedo punched first]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

[Brittain33]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

[Greedo punched first]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

A Democrat would not have been confirmed. Is this a threat to primary Tom Wolf?

[Babeuf]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

A Democrat would not have been confirmed. Is this a threat to primary Tom Wolf?

How did you get that from his comment??

[Greedo punched first]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

A Democrat would not have been confirmed. Is this a threat to primary Tom Wolf?

How did you get that from his comment??

The other maroon avatars always call for primary challenges in swing states and red states.  A GOP governor of a solid blue state would almost certainly appoint a Democrat for the legislature to confirm.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are the chances the Supreme Court intervenes in this?

Zilch. As I have stated, the ruling was based on the PA constitution.

[Tintrlvr]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

If they move PA-7 almost entirely within Delaware County, then that still leaves Chester County for PA-6, which would be at most a tossup seat.    They really can't do much with PA-8 since the court order is saying no county/municipal splits and Bucks is almost perfectly a district by itself.

Also if the "No County Splits" is taken heavily enough and Allegheny county is only permitted to have 2 districts in it, then the second district outside of Pittsburgh would be Lean R at the most.

Depends which county is combined with Allegheny. If Beaver (and I think Allegheny+Beaver is exactly two districts, so this would be appealing to the court), I agree that such a seat would be somewhere between toss-up and lean R. But they could add Butler instead, which makes essentially any district including it into a safe R district (despite the D trend in 2016 and strong R trend in Beaver).

[Oryxslayer]

So here is my PA map. I made it before the court released their decision, so I had to go back to the drawing table in Montgomery since I had split a town between PA-01 and PA-08 to make things more pleasing. I effect though, the courts orders not to split counties and lower level geographic jurisdictions boost this maps  legitimacy, since I only cut 7 counties and 0 lower level authorities. Seven counties is quite close to the minimum cut, I once got it down to 6 by removing the cut in Beaver. The Resulting lines though were horrendous, with PA-18 crawling up the side of the state, so I just did away with it. Using 2010 numbers, 0.5% deviation from PA's ideal count of 705,688 is 3,528.

SEPA

PA-01: 71.2% Obama, 28% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+22.72

PA-02: 89% Obama, 10.6% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+38.61 / 2010 VAP 53.2% Black

PA-06: 55.6% Obama, 43.5% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+1.45

PA-07: 66.8% Obama, 32.4% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+16.29

PA-08: 54% Obama, 45% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+.63

PA-13: 60.3% Obama, 38.9% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+7.7

PA-15: 55.9% Obama, 42.8% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+.71

PA-16: 45% Obama, 54% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+11.33

Greater SEPA is the area that changes the most under a fair plan, due to the intricacies of PA-06 and PA-07. The 7th becomes a tight seat based around Delaware, and the 6th becomes based around Chester. The 16th is now based around Lancaster, the 13th is now a clear Montgomery seat, the 8th remains a Bucks seat, and the 15th recedes into the Lehigh valley. The 7th becomes a safe dem pickup, the 6th becomes a D leaning swing seat, and the 8th/15th become more competitive.

What is interesting is what happens to Dem Incumbents. Back in 2010, realizing that the Pubs were going to draw whatever map they liked, Brady got them to draw the three SEPA dem seats as three seats for philly dems. For himself though, Brady got a seat that was recially divided so he couldn't be primaried, and hyperdemocratic so he couldn't lose. Due to me avoiding cutting any Philly wards, PA-07  now includes Brady's seat. There are still 3 Philly Dems, but now Brady is the one reaching outwards. Boyle and Evens remain tight in Philly, an Brady still has a seat matching his specifics. Too dem for him to lose, too white for him to be primaried.

Central

PA-04: 39.9% Obama, 59.1% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+17.36

PA-05: 43.5% Obama, 55.1% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+16.24

PA-09: 39.3% Obama, 59.2% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+21.45

PA-10: 43.1% Obama, 55.6% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+16.87

PA-11: 45.7% Obama, 53.2% McCain / '12-'16 PVI R+9.07

PA-17: 57.6% Obama, 41.4% McCain / '12-'16 PVI D+.26

As I have stated many times before, a redrawn PA-17 moves a few points to the left. Even in the Wayne+Pike scenario, the seat still moves to a 0 PVI from R+1. Schuylkill really is an anchor on the seat. The others are all still safe R, and based out of the 'T.' State College is drowned out by its surroundings. Harrisburg is in a similar situation, however the seat is open presently, and could be a Likely R rating.

West

PA-03: Obama 51.4%, McCain 47.3% / '12-'16 PVI R+6.95

PA-12: Obama 43.3%, McCain 55.8% / '12-'16 PVI R+10.55

PA-14: Obama 66.4%, McCain 32.6% / '12-'16 PVI D+16.6

PA-18: Obama 47%, McCain 51.8% / '12-'16 PVI R+9.8

Overall, this region doesn't see much change, due to its more midwestern political geography. Democrats have a huge following in PA and Allegheny, however they lack a modern coalition. This kinda forces the Dem pack. PA-03 has moved to the right since Trump, though is less Republican than presently. The 12th and the 18th both remain Solidly R, though notably the 18th becomes 1 point less Republican then presently. The 14th is still safe dem.

Points of Contention

Northeast

The main tradeoff here is a subjectively better looking district for an extra cut on the map. The seat remains marginally Democratic, and the trade is some formerly democratic territory and Republican Rural towns for two historically Republican counties. I don't like cuts, but some people don't like the presented PA-10.

Pittsburgh

This one I think should be less controversial then the Northeast. The decision here is a scenario where we avoid the second cut in Allegheny and keeps a neat PA-12. This 12th is also a little more democratic, at R+7. The downside however is that this forces another cut, this time with PA-18. If not Westmoreland, then the cut would have to happen elsewhere. The seats don't become any more competitive, and the other seats get more ugly.

Also I ignored the Beaver paring because that scenario still needed an extra cut into Westmoreland or Butler to reach the pop for two seats.

Philadelphia Sub-Metros

As I have discussed elsewhere, these three counties have nearly perfect pop for two seats, and the 20K they are over by fits neatly in the other PA seats. The problem with this though, is that there are 3 counties for 2 seats. So, two counties get seats, the other gets demolished. The one I prefer with the cutting of Berks has a PVI of ~D+1, the second has a R+.09, or effectively 0, and the third has a PVI of R+1.9. In all these scenarios the 16th would remain Safe R with a PVI around or above R+10. Of these, the second I tend to like the least, since the 16th right now is a Lancaster seat. It also would create a extra cut due to the other SEPA seats needing to grab their 20K. On the surface, Republicans like the Third, Dems like the First. An additional factor though for me is that the third cracks the Phili Metro, while the the first only destroys the Reading minor metro.  This is where opinions and preferences matter.


Of the three above scenarios, of course the lines in the alternate slides could change. I created them only the fly, whereas the lines I presented in the full map I spent time working on. However, I tried to capture the theme of each scenario.

[King Lear]

How do you make those cool maps?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is it possible for dems to get 2 districts out of the pittsburgh area?

[Sestak]

The hilarious thing is that Tom Corbett might end up having given the Democrats a whole host of new seats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about updating the thread title?