PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Landslide Lyndon]

Right where Jones was two months before the election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think this is a $-driven freakout, not a polling driven freakout. The fundamentals favor Saccone, but if he's broke, he could fail.

I agree. Lamb is also the far superior candidate. He's young, good looking, a vet, charismatic, and very intelligent. I can see the many potential reasons why the GOP is freaking out.

Will there be a debate?

[Landslide Lyndon]

In the article above it's mentioned that Lamb raised 550000$ during the 4Q while Saccone raised 200000$.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.

Ban-worthy post.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Probably a Republican win in a place where you would expect a Republican win.

Why don't you change your nick to Chinese Cookie?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

This guy looks like he just finished kindergarten.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democrats won AL-SEN.

Well, Saccone has the advantage of not being a kiddie diddler.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It would be helpful to see a poll where Lamb is leading. I still hold by my view that there aren't enough people in this district open to voting Democrat in 2018 for Lamb to overcome Saccone's base, as incompetent as Saccone is.

Indeed. But the game here is how many of them are going to stay home while energized Democrats go to the polls, like what happened in Virginia and Alabama.

Virginia doesn't really fit that description very well. Gillespie certainly got his voters to turn out. They just weren't nearly enough because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia nowadays, and Democrats just turned out in full force.

No, turnout at the western part of the state was significantly down compared to NOVA.
Gillespie got roughly the same percentages as Trump but much fewer raw votes.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I doubt Lamb wins this given how hard the GOP is investing in this seat.

Agreed, but you can just smell the fear here and it's wonderful.

keep feasting on the moral victories!!!!

Doug Jones says hi.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Monmouth Poll.

Saccone          49
Lamb              46

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_021518/

[Landslide Lyndon]

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

And Doug Jones would've won if he was pro-life.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.

Many cultural conservatives say they're pro-life, but in the end, enough of them can stomach voting for a pro-choicer. 

Guns are a different story.  There are a HELL of a lot of gun owners, and they will view gun control as affecting them personally.

Really?
Because all these years we are told that "Protecting the Rights of the Unborn" is THE issue for social conservatives,

[Landslide Lyndon]

What is Bagel's harden for Gina Cerilli all about?

Well, she is a former Miss Pennsylvania.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cross tabs at the bottom of the link are interesting.

Saccone basically gets no one who didn't vote for Trump other than 1/6 of Johnson voters. Lamb gets half of Johnson voters and 37% of 2016 non-voters.

More proof that Johnson probably hurt Clinton more than Trump.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Some of these posts remind me of the people who were writing Northam's campaign autopsy a week before the election.

Remember when a union left Fairfax out of their campaign literature?
That really killed his campaign.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Does meeting with a group automatically change all of your policy position to match the ones they support? I am not sure that is how it works.

Optics is everything. I'm sure no GOP candidate in a similar situation (Let's say a D+11) should line up to appear with Milo Yiannopoulos.

So, meeting a group that wants to prevent high school shootings is the same as meeting a Nazi.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?

Could be a potent argument, but the fact that Saccone too lives outside the new 14th makes him a flawed messenger.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?

[Landslide Lyndon]

For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

He actually posted the ad tho...

You can quote the ad without the editorializing like many other posters do.