PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[KingSweden]

I can't help but feel he's going to hurt Saccone by campaigning for him... PA has really soured on Trump since the election.

Not SouthWest Pennsylvania.

Oh yes. Especially here.

Um last I checked the Appalachia region was trump’s strongest region and still the region where he has 60+ Approval ratings.

I think somebody from PA named “PittsburgSteel” knows his corner of the country better than you

[KingSweden]

Well, well, well... we might have a real race here boys and girls.

Still think Lamb loses but it’ll be closer than the PVI suggests it has any reason to be

[KingSweden]

Oh, I forgot to tell everyone that I'm hitting the field for Lamb tomorrow.

Let us know how it goes!

[KingSweden]

BTW, if Lamb manages to win this thing, he becomes the instant favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022, especially if Dump gets re-elected.

Thoughts on that theory?

No way he gets past Josh Shapiro.

Or Lt. Governor John Fetterman.

^^

Shapiro will most likely run to replace Wolf, IMO

[KingSweden]

How has Monmouth been this cycle? I'm forgetting.

They had Gillespie +1 than Northam +2 in the final few weeks of VA-Gov. Fail.

Their Alabama poll was very good, with a 46-46 tie at a 2017 electorate and 48-45 Jones in a Democratic turnout surge.

They had Murphy +14 in NJ, very well done.

Overall good, and I loved their turnout model idea in Alabama.

That turnout model thing smacked me of hedging bets at first, but I’d be interested to see how it holds up when other pollsters do it for other races

[KingSweden]

People like Conor Lamb give me so much hope for our party. I really want him to win.

[KingSweden]

Those last 5 points are proving as tough for Lamb as they were for Ossoff... still it's great to see that Saccone isn't running away with this with Morning Consult-validating numbers.

There is the difference that GA-06 was an ancestrally Republican district while PA-18 is an ancestrally Democratic one. People here are more used to voting candidates with a D next to their names.

The thing is, while I expect Saccone to win I think Ossoff would win in GA-6 if the election were held today.

I agree

[KingSweden]

Gina Cerilli would be leading Saccone 4-5 points right now if she was the nominee, shame.

Ehhhhh idk about that

[KingSweden]

You can’t jam the Lamb

(Sorry)

[KingSweden]

Btw, if Conor wins (Which looks likelier by the day) he becomes the favorite to challenge Toomey in 2022.

Ehhh.... Post-2020/2022 redistricting one of (new) PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, and obviously PA-10 are going to become less friendly to the Dems due to a neighboring R seat getting chopped. Whoever finds themselves without a seat probably challenges Toomey 100% of the time. So perhaps it will be Lamb, but he may settle in and we see Cartwright take up the banner in 2022. Except for the PA-07 guy, they all seem like fine candidates.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say but PA-17 is a tossup. It also happens to be the district that Lamb now lives in so he's likely to win it. He's young and energetic and that's what the Democrats need and that's who they are going to put up against the Tumor.

Fetterman is a possibility too

[KingSweden]

The momentum seems to be with Lamb... but this is a total Tossup. I’ll say Lamb+1, but I have little confidence in this prediction

[KingSweden]

A LimoLiberal phone-banking story

Voter: Hello?
LimoLiberal: Good evening ma'm, do you have a moment to talk about the ongoing Congressional special election and why Lamb is the best candidate for your district?
Voter: Well, sure, for a minute anyway.
LimoLiberal: Lamb has only been leading in one poll, so I doubt he can win.
Voter: Wait, what?
LimoLiberal: Especially after the Texas primary completely blew up the wave narrative, Saccone is unfortunately going to win.
Voter: Aren't you supposed to be convincing me to vote for Lamb?
LimoLiberal: I am. Just because I don't believe Democrats are getting a wave in 2018 doesn't mean I'm not trying to convince you to vote for Lamb.
Voter: Ok, I have to go. Take care, or something...
LimoLiberal: Alright, just FYI though, tomorrow morning, Gravis is going to release a poll showing a total collapse for Lamb, but it's important you go to vote for him.

hangs up

Virginia you are truly a national treasure.

Anyways we have each candidate +3 each in a crappy poll. I’m comfortable calling this a pure Tossup. Lamb’s got the Big Mo though.

[KingSweden]

RABA isn’t great but better than nothing

[KingSweden]

You guys are starting to persuade me that Lamb may actually win this.

[KingSweden]

Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html

Lol. Low Energy Rick

[KingSweden]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

Is Gina Cerrilli busy?

[KingSweden]

Is it too early to start making Lamb for Senate '22 signs?

Yes

Yeah, don't put the cart before the horse.  There were people talking up Ossoff for President in 2028 before the GA-6 special.

[KingSweden]

Not a great news story for Saccone to wake up to.

[KingSweden]

The weather looks to be the worst in Washington county today if weather.com is to be believed.

I seriously doubt a half-inch of snow will prevent anyone from voting.

Rain in NoVA, however...

[KingSweden]

Miles has his map ready:

Miles being forced to use the bad colors.

Twitter is a cruel place for the proper Atlas colors.

im still fairly new here and I gotta ask; why are dems red and reps blue? just cause? It threw me off for a bit when I first got here

Dave picked those colors before Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat

[KingSweden]

Why does it seem like the media is treating this race as "local" whereas they treated ga-6 like a referendum on trump?

Almost all the articles put out recently on this race heavily mention Lamb's "conservative" views on key issues, saccone's bad campaign and corruption ties, but there seems to be less of a desire to connect a lamb victory to a referendum on trump

Hmm. I hadn’t gotten that sense. Could be all the Hollywood types stumping in GA-6, which we haven’t seen in PA-18.

[KingSweden]

Why does it seem like the media is treating this race as "local" whereas they treated ga-6 like a referendum on trump?

Almost all the articles put out recently on this race heavily mention Lamb's "conservative" views on key issues, saccone's bad campaign and corruption ties, but there seems to be less of a desire to connect a lamb victory to a referendum on trump

Hmm. I hadn’t gotten that sense. Could be all the Hollywood types stumping in GA-6, which we haven’t seen in PA-18.

Maybe I am just reading things wrong, but Lamb just seems less of a national dem than ossof was.

Could be. While being a much superior candidate/better fit for the district he’s running in, he doesn’t scratch the itch of the national media in the same way (worth recalling that CNN and a number of other large media firms are based in Atlanta, which is increasingly a favored filming site too)

[KingSweden]

Here’s a random question

Has a party that holds national power ever won in a “big upset” special election?

Like, let’s say in a Massachusetts election with trump as prez, a republican knocked off a Democrat for a debate or house race.

Has something like that ever happened?

Kathy Hochul in 2011?

Best example I can think of

[KingSweden]

114 GOP seats that are less Republican than this one. November just might be a bloodbath of epic proportions.

Just flipping half of those would be impressive

[KingSweden]

CNN saying trump is on track to lose 118 house seats in 2018, beating fdr's 71 seat loss in 1942.

If you directly extrapolate from these results.

Why wouldn't that be a reasonable thing to do? Saccone is a generic R and lamb seems like a typical midwest dem.

It presumes uniform swing, which is unlikely for a variety of reasons. Steel county union Demosaurs are different from southern rural whites, etc