PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[LimoLiberal]

I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.

Your record is unblemished, dude. Please post any tidbit you get from this source if you can.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Guys, I think Holmes is God.

[Torrain]

Holmes: Sherlock of Polls

[GeorgiaModerate]

Holmes: Sherlock of Polls

It's elementary for him.

[Gass3268]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

[KingSweden]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

Is Gina Cerrilli busy?

[Gass3268]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.

[LimoLiberal]

I have the geographical results:

Surge model -

Lamb wins Allegheny 62-36
Lamb wins Washington/Greene 49-47
Lamb loses Westmoreland 54-40

[Torrain]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

[Mondale]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

[Gass3268]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.

You make a good point, Democrats need to find a good candidate.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.

[Torrain]

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.

The real question is whether the GOP still throws money at the races, or triages them to funnel cash into other races. I'd much rather they knock a couple of percent off of Casey's vote total than Heitkamp's

[Bernie’s Mittens]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.

[This User Has Been Banned]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.

Well, Rick Scott is extremely good. And I'd consider Evan Jenkins a good candidate as well (better than Kramer).

But yeah, the GOP recruits are... not great.

[Mondale]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Btw, funny that RCP only entered the low turnout model in their database.

Oh, and...

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/973254818566459393

[Gass3268]

It hit the number that Nate Cohn said he would want for college educated voters:

56% No college degree
44% 4-year college degree

[Brittain33]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)