PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Landslide Lyndon]

INBOX: Conor Lamb has raised a whopping $3.2 million since January.  It's why he's been able to be competitive with the outside GOP ad buys -- even with the DCCC pulling out of the race.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/968549891835400192

Why on Earth would the D Triple C pull out?

Like with Alabama, the less people hear about national Democrats, the better for Lamb.
Maybe they have some under-the-radar PAC spending money, again like in Alabama.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Saccone supports the tariffs... not a good move, especially in SW Pennsylvania.

https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/969588879467696129

Why? I thought all these Pittsburgh steelworkers would love it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Senator Roy Moore agrees with the jerk.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Emerson has a poll coming out today: https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/969585019470696448

I'm willing to put a bet that in the end the fake pollster will be more accurate than Emerson.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/970282763415941120?s=21

Goodbye "Trump tax cuts", hello "Lamb wants MS-13 to babysit your grandchildren."

"Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation."

And on the flip side https://mobile.twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/970311872334454785

This ad will make krazey's head explode.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I assume other than the primaries this will be our last electoral test until the midterms.

There is AZ-08 and the jungle primaries in California.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's not so much anti-cop as holding police accountable when they do screw up. There is a big difference.

True, but optics are everything in American Politics. There's a way to go about it without alienating anyone.

Lamb is a former prosecutor. And your party is openly attacking the FBI for doing its job.
Troll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When is that Monmouth poll gonna drop?

[Landslide Lyndon]

The needle is back to stab everyone in the heart

What's the needle?

Their live prediction forecast while returns are coming in.  See https://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president for an example.

Forget the needle oh, people. The real question is will Ben Kenobi be back with his specialized and insightful voting model that missed the results of the Alabama Race by only about 8 points even with 70% of the vote in.

Don't we have Limo's mind model now?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Remember when Obama called Steve King a "very low IQ person"?
Fun times.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Supremely hottake:

- A Connor Lamb win does not mean that democrats will take the house.
- A Connor Lamb loss does not mean that democrats will not take the house.

Hotter than the heart of a supernova.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hahahahaha!!!

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/973624641255366659

[Landslide Lyndon]

CNN saying "Too Early To Call".

WTF does that mean? They don't have an exit poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm not quite sure why CNN put Santorum on their panel.

Because he was a congressman from Pittsburgh?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Allegheny precinct and he's only up by that much?

It's a precinct Clinton lost by 15 and Obama lost by 18. The benchmark for Lamb in the precinct is +3.

Apparently it's a precinct that both Casey and Wolf lost too.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/973720687218188291

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not going to stop some Bernie supporters from slamming "the DNC" for abandoning candidates.

What's really funny is OurRevolution congratulated Lamb for his win while at the same time they are constantly trashing as neoliberal DINOs candidates like him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Landslide Lyndon]

Laura Ingraham is absolutely convinced that Lamb is a Republican at heart. Clearly, she knows none of his views.

https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/973900625581957120

It seems to me that Lamb makes Laura's biological clock tick a little faster.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A few months ago, when Murphy resigned and the special election was called, I remember Sean Trende tweeting that "here is another chance for the Democrats to lose another race by 5-6 points and claim moral victory afterwards".

I guess things went a little differently than he anticipated.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A few months ago, when Murphy resigned and the special election was called, I remember Sean Trende tweeting that "here is another chance for the Democrats to lose another race by 5-6 points and claim moral victory afterwards".

I guess things went a little differently than he anticipated.

To be fair, at that time it looked like a long shot.

Alabama senate looked like a no shot last August.
Yet Bill effing Kristol predicted that Jones would win.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A few months ago, when Murphy resigned and the special election was called, I remember Sean Trende tweeting that "here is another chance for the Democrats to lose another race by 5-6 points and claim moral victory afterwards".

I guess things went a little differently than he anticipated.

To be fair, at that time it looked like a long shot.

Alabama senate looked like a no shot last August.
Yet Bill effing Kristol predicted that Jones would win.

And that was a moronic prediction in the context.

I really don't give a sh*t if someone made a prediction that made no sense at the time but turned out to be "right" just because of unforeseeable developments.

Um, no it was not because Roy Moore had emerged as the front-runner in the Republican primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sounds like a sLambdunk!

Miles, is that you?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Another terrific map by Miles.