PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 202666 times)
Holmes
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Posts: 13,754
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Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2018, 12:38:16 AM »
Thought this was a thread about a special election in PA-18.
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Holmes
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Posts: 13,754
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Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2018, 11:02:08 PM »
Final?
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #27 on: February 16, 2018, 04:01:45 PM »
Yikes. Oh well. Pre-emptive defense for the eventual gun discussion in Monday's debate.
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Holmes
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Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #28 on: February 16, 2018, 06:52:06 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on February 16, 2018, 06:24:53 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on February 16, 2018, 04:27:58 PM
It's understandable that he wants to win the race, but that doesn't make him any less of a coward.
Doug Jones ran in Alabama and he wasn't afraid to say he was pro-choice and supported the DREAM act.
Are we forgetting that Roy Moore has decades upon decades of bad behaviour and statements that sunk him?

px's post has nothing to do with Moore.
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Holmes
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Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2018, 10:59:56 PM »
That's peak Bagel. "I would vote for the Republican... I don't live in the district though... actually I would vote for the Democrat."
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
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Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2018, 01:09:25 PM »
Some of these posts remind me of the people who were writing Northam's campaign autopsy a week before the election.
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Holmes
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Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2018, 10:25:37 PM »
The new PA-17 really is a gift to Democrats.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2018, 03:52:49 PM »

I thought he already did.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2018, 01:39:27 PM »
Quote from: hofoid on March 02, 2018, 01:35:23 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 02, 2018, 01:33:00 PM
Quote from: hofoid on March 02, 2018, 01:28:03 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on March 02, 2018, 01:26:04 PM
BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.
Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

Oh, that's how it works? I'll let Strange and Moore know the good news.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #34 on: March 02, 2018, 04:17:32 PM »
A Fox poll too?

Why do always have long droughts and then days where many dump all at once?

Edit: Did PittsburghSteel delete his post?
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2018, 02:55:07 PM »
I got the joke.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2018, 09:37:31 AM »
Lamb 48
Saccone 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxaLwXNrd7apQzFqMkx6YjdIMU5GVUZ5QVkxMXpFb05RVjhN/view
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2018, 09:41:58 AM »

Yes, it's RABA Research.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2018, 12:46:25 PM »
Educated voters? In PA-18? It's more likely than you think.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2018, 02:50:15 PM »
The needle did not betray us in VA-Gov and AL-Sen.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2018, 07:31:49 PM »
Oh, that guy is having a rally? Gross.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2018, 08:02:40 PM »
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2018, 08:10:34 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:06:17 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:02:40 PM
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2018, 08:12:07 PM »
Quote from: DTC on March 10, 2018, 08:11:21 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:10:34 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:06:17 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:02:40 PM
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll.

Can you uhh be a bit more specific?

Someone who works in data analytics.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #44 on: March 10, 2018, 08:20:29 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:18:39 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:10:34 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:06:17 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:02:40 PM
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s Tongue

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #45 on: March 10, 2018, 09:58:03 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on March 10, 2018, 09:49:59 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:20:29 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:18:39 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:10:34 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 10, 2018, 08:06:17 PM
Quote from: Holmes on March 10, 2018, 08:02:40 PM
There might be a good poll releasing for Lamb but I don't know when. It could be the Monmouth one.

You see that in a tweet?

I know someone. He's been right before, for example the Jones+10 Fox News poll. He also gave the heads up on that one recent Monmouth poll that was D+2.

Your reputation as a valuable Atlas poster is riding on this being true! /s Tongue

It's this same guy:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279249.msg5952465#msg5952465

It ended up being the Fox News poll.

So it's actually more on him.

I am praying that you are right. If it's Lamb +4, then I think he's going to win.

Smiley
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #46 on: March 11, 2018, 10:53:22 AM »
Trump should've done his rally in Greene or Washington. That's where Saccone needs to run up the margins.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #47 on: March 12, 2018, 10:25:12 AM »
Quote from: Gauche on March 12, 2018, 10:24:14 AM
What time do the polls close tomorrow?

Polls are open from 7 am to 8 pm EST.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #48 on: March 12, 2018, 12:06:04 PM »
I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,754
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
« Reply #49 on: March 12, 2018, 02:17:54 PM »
I can envision a 3-4 point Lamb win. This race really got away from Republicans in recent weeks (though I don't think they were always heavily favored as some people think). Saccone has been a poor candidate and Lamb's exceeded expectations.
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