2006 Predictions

[True Democrat]

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

Yes Phil but the last time I check the Senate races were held statewide.

And both are Republicans, genius. What is your point?

Pennsylvania in statewide elections leans democrat.

Even I have to say that's retarded.  In state races, Pennsylvania leans (just ever so slightly) Republican.  Specter isn't that good of an example though because he attracts a lot of Democrats.  On the Presidential level, Pennsylvania leans a tiny bit to the Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

Yes Phil but the last time I check the Senate races were held statewide.

And both are Republicans, genius. What is your point?

Pennsylvania in statewide elections leans democrat.

I actually proved you wrong and you still insist with me.

[Smash255]

Dems have an excellent shot in PA, good shot in OH especially if Ryan runs, decent shot in RI if Chafee wins the primary, in the bag for the Dems if Laffey knocks off Chafee.  Ok shot at MT & MO, outside shot at TN.

Republicans have a fairly decent shot at MN, decent shot at FL if Harris is not the nominee,  decent shot at MD if Cardin is not the nominee for the Dems (ok shot but unlikely if cardin is the Dem nominee, outside chance at NJ (Bush backlash could hurt them here)

One thing which will have a pretty big impact is Bush.  If his approval is back around 50, probably will see little change in the balance of the Senate (even to a seat or so to the Dems) ), if his approval is up a bit higher possibly 1-2 seat pickup for the GOP, if Bush's approval is still hovering in the low to mid 40's a year from now, Dems could pick up 3-5 seats.

Overall at this point I pick a 2-3 seat Dem pickup

[TeePee4Prez]

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

Yes Phil but the last time I check the Senate races were held statewide.

And both are Republicans, genius. What is your point?

Pennsylvania in statewide elections leans democrat.

I actually proved you wrong and you still insist with me.

Again I will back up Sarnstrom given the fact Democratic districts are MUCH more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.  Due to the land area of the GOP, it is much easier for you guys to draw up more GOP leaning districts statewide.  Before the last gerrymander, PA only had a 5 seat GOP advantage in the House, now they have 20.  Also the CD advantage was only 11-10, now 12-7.  Hopefully it will be 10-9 GOP or even Dem after 2006. 

[Keystone Phil]

Again I will back up Sarnstrom given the fact Democratic districts are MUCH more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.  Due to the land area of the GOP, it is much easier for you guys to draw up more GOP leaning districts statewide.  Before the last gerrymander, PA only had a 5 seat GOP advantage in the House, now they have 20.  Also the CD advantage was only 11-10, now 12-7.  Hopefully it will be 10-9 GOP or even Dem after 2006. 

Before redistricting, the GOP was still in control so tell me how we are lean Dem?

And how do you expect the Dems to make it even in 2006? Let's say you win PA 6 and PA 8 (not happening). Where else do you expect to win? What's your latest fantasy?

[Jake]

Flyers is looking for a pickup in PA-10 or PA-18

[Keystone Phil]

Flyers is looking for a pickup in PA-10 or PA-18

Yeah, that PA 18 race will be something.    I loved when they all thought Hafer, who is now loathed by the GOP and cannot connect with conservative Dems, would win the seat.

I seriously want to know what seats he thinks the Dems will win to make the delegation evenly split. I need a good laugh.

[Keystone Phil]

I really want to know how the Dems could gain control in 2006, Flyers.


Give PA 6 and PA 8 to the Dems (though I believe neither will flip). That now gives the Dems nine seats. You need one more seat to gain a majority. Which seat do you win?

PA 3 - Phil English
PA 4 - Melissa Hart
PA 5 - John Peterson
PA 7 - Curt Weldon
PA 9 - Bill Shuster
PA 10 - Don Sherwood
PA 15 - Charlie Dent
PA 16 - Joe Pitts
PA 18 - Tim Murphy
PA 19 - Todd Platts


Come on, Flyers, amuse us. The chances of the Dems winning any of those seats are slim to none.

[MissCatholic]

Right now only Pa will flip.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats have a good chance to keep the Minnesota seat. Bush is very unpopular in Minnesota (39% approval?) and Kennedy votes with Bush something like 97% of the time. He is a total Bush clone and that won't play well in Minnesota.

100% correct. I have never heard anyone explain why Kennedy is such a great candidate.

At least Phil admitted Kennedy is only average. It'll be interesting to see how he runs a campaign, since he can't exactly run from Bush too easily.

[ian]

bump.
Any more predictions?

[Flying Dog]

dems-50
reps-49
ind-1

[Jake]

LOL

The Democrats get six seat where exactly?

PA - alright
RI - possible of course
MT - possible
OH - doubtful w/Hackett
MO - y'all wish
TN - stretching it badly
VA - now you're making me laugh

For amusement purposes though, which seats?

[Frodo]

Key:

Pink -Democratic holds
Deep Red -Democratic gains

Light Blue -Republican holds
Dark Blue -Republican gains

Pale Green -Bernie Sanders, 'nuff said.

The composition of the Senate in January, 2007 will remain numerically the same as it is now, with 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and one independent.  So, though the states may change colors now and then, I predict that the balance of power will remain the same in the 110th Congress as it is now. 

[© tweed]

GOP Pickups: Minnesota, Maryland
Dem Pickups: None (I counted Bernie in VT as a Dem)

Right now I'm inclined to give Maryland back to the Dems and give NJ to the GOP.  So still a +2 for the GOP in 2006, making the next Senate makeup 57-42-1 D-R-I.

[Emsworth]

Republicans: 56
Democrats: 43
Independents: 1

Republican pickups: New Jersey, Minnesota
Democratic pickups: Pennsylvania

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Republicans: 56
Democrats: 43
Independents: 1

Republican pickups: New Jersey, Minnesota
Democratic pickups: Pennsylvania

DINO

[© tweed]

Republicans: 56
Democrats: 43
Independents: 1

Republican pickups: New Jersey, Minnesota
Democratic pickups: Pennsylvania

DINO

Aww, don't call him a DINO for his predictions!  Mine actually play out worse for the Democrats than Emsworth's.  I don't have a problem with you criticizing him for wanting 20804323 Scalias on the court, but pessimistic predictions do not the DINO make.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

OMG Jfern RUpUBlikAnZ r sooo Ded!

Rupublikanz: 0
Democrts: 1286
Inds: -3

[Q]

OMG Jfern RUpUBlikAnZ r sooo Ded!

Rupublikanz: 0
Democrts: 1286
Inds: -3

lol

[nini2287]

PA and MN flip-that's it

>30% Tossup
>50% Slight
>70% Lean
>90% Solid

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Right now, I think the only seat which is more than 50% likely to change parties is Pennsylvania. 

Other seats will change, but we don't know which ones it will be at this point, and I would bet on the incumbent party if given a chance in every other state. 

But the Democrats have a lot more states that they are about 30% likely to win than the GOP does right now.

[Joe Republic]

Republicans: 56
Democrats: 43
Independents: 1

Republican pickups: New Jersey, Minnesota
Democratic pickups: Pennsylvania

DINO

Don't be such a joke.  Anybody with a brain can make sensible predictions that so happen to not coincide with the party's wishes.

[Virginian87]

If the New Jersey State Democratic Party has a brain, they will put up Andrews against Kean instead of that tool of the political machine Menendez.  The last thing we need are more Bob Torricelli-type candidates. 

I also feel that Kean would win if Menendez were nominated.  Keystone Phil is right in that Kean has huge recognition in the state (thanks to his Dad.  Sound similiar, Pennsylvania Democrats?) and will not be easy to beat.  However, I think that Andrews could have a fair chance against Kean next year.

And good lord, jfern!  I see you haven't changed in the last two months that I've been away.  You call someone who thinks that we'll lose a seat a DINO.  Real clever.  I suppose you're going to call him a "spineless moderate" next.

[AuH2O]

Republicans: 56
Democrats: 43
Independents: 1

Republican pickups: New Jersey, Minnesota
Democratic pickups: Pennsylvania

DINO

Clear marxist thinking by jfern. Emsworth is contradicting his perverted little dialectic, thus Emsworth is a "DINO."

By jfern's "logic," if Noam Chomsky predicted Republican gains in an election, he would then be a rightist.

Clinically, such thought processes are termed "insanity," though various PC terms are now used additionally (chemical imbalance in the brain, etc.).