2006 Predictions

[Ben.]

Overall I think 2006 will see some reversal of the recent trend where the incumbent majority party have been boosted over the minority party; indeed in 2006 I think there will be a anti-Majority mood which will play to the Democrats advantage.

However it can hardly be said that the seats being contested favour the Dems next year, in the end at the very most there are 3-5 competitive races in GOP held states (PA, OH, MO and then at a stretch TN and MT) but at the same time there are 2-4 competitive races in Democratic held states (MD and MN and then FL and perhaps NJ).

In PA, Santorum is the DSCC’s no1 target his opponent Bob Casey consistently leads him by margins of over 10%, Santorum’s cash advantage and the likelihood of a liberal third party candidate will narrow this margin but it  won’t be enough and Casey should be able to win.

In OH if Ryan runs we have a very competitive race if not DeWine wins by an unimpressive margin. DeWine has not only be tarred by the troubles of the state’s, once all powerful GOP, but is also one of the least popular incumbent senators in the country, his large cash advantage is likely to be undermined by what is likely to be an expensive primary while his own base appears weak with the NRA likely to endorse Ryan should he run. In the end as I’ve said before it’s a race between DeWine’s unpopularity and DeWine’s money with Ryan as his opponent and a costly primary DeWine’s money loses.   

Beyond those two states, Missouri is likely to be hotly contested but in the end I’d expect Talent to eek out a win (let me see more polls closer to the time before I’m set on that one though), the GOP also holds onto the MT Senate seat when the Democratic challenge fails to materialise… in TN Harold Ford fights a surprisingly close contests against Bryant but in the end loses by a slim margin. Rhode Island will be an interesting contest but until I can say weather Laffey could beat or seriously damage Chafee I’d call the state for the incumbent… but as I say that might change.     

In the competitive Democratic held seats, Harris proves unable to appeal beyond the GOP base while Nelson racks up big margins amongst democrats and moderates to secure a modest but comfortable win (say with 52-53% of the vote), In Maryland Steele fight an excellent campaign but the Democratic tilt of the state and the national trend of the election means another modest win for the Democrats in this case for Ben Cardin. In Minnesota a strong republican candidate and a strong GOP effort trumps a weak Democratic candidate and a national trend towards the Dems with a win for Congressman Mark Kennedy. Meanwhile in NJ a credible GOP challenge simply does not materialise and the Democrats hold the seat, the same is even truer in West Virginia where Robert Byrd wins a ninth term with yet another crushing victory. 



The outlook for the Dems is a good deal better than I had thought, last November had I been asked I’d have said Hafer would have run against Santorum and lost, Ohio wouldn’t have been in contention, together with Minnesota I’d have placed Florida as very likely GOP pickups, indeed the best the Democrats could have looked forward to then would have been a competitive race in MO and the very worst would have been powerful challenges in MI and WI… thankfully things appear much more positive, like Dean Schumer has done far better than I would have expected.

Its also fair to note that things could have been even better for the Dems, had Lott retired Mike Moore or Gene Taylor would have been a very competitive candidates and the same goes for Mark Warner in VA had he decided to challenge Allen… oh well…      

[Ben.]

I think the Dems will pick up PA and OH, and MN will go GOP.  It's very possible that the Dems could also pick up RI, MO, and MT.  I'll say Dems will pick up two seats, making it:

Senate:
GOP - 53
Dem - 46
Indie - 1

Pretty much as i see it.

[Keystone Phil]

At this point...

Dem pickups - PA

GOP pickups - NJ, MN


GOP - 56
Dem - 43
Ind - 1


...but this is very likely to change.

[Sarnstrom]

GOP pickups - NJ, MN

New Jersey!! Are you crazy? What makes Kean such a strong candidate? I'm guessing that Corzine becomes governor appoints Menendez and Menendez sweeps Kean 56-43%

[Jake]

... and that shows your ignorance of New Jersey politics. Menendez is a North Jersey bitch who will get smoked if he runs against Kean.

[Keystone Phil]

GOP pickups - NJ, MN

New Jersey!! Are you crazy? What makes Kean such a strong candidate? I'm guessing that Corzine becomes governor appoints Melendez and Melendez sweeps Kean 56-43%

The same thing that makes Casey strong in PA - His name! Plus, Kean is a good debater and a good public speaker. Do you know what you're talking about here? NJ is going to be one of the biggest Senate races in 2006. Plus, saying Menendez is going to beat Kean (and by 13 points) is laughable!

[Sarnstrom]

The difference between Casey and Kean is that Casey would actually represent his state well. A moderate-to-conservative Democrat representing a democratic state. New Jersey on the other hand still leans democrat by a comfortable margin, and the thought of New Jersey electing a republican to represent them in the senate is laughable!

[Keystone Phil]

The difference between Casey and Kean is that Casey would actually represent his state well. A moderate-to-conservative Democrat representing a democratic state. New Jersey on the other hand still leans democrat by a comfortable margin, and the thought of New Jersey electing a republican to represent them in the senate is laughable!

PA is not a Democratic state.

NJ almost elected a Republican in 2000. Corzine (D) - 50%  Franks (R) - 47%.

You are a real idiot. I honestly don't even expect this from people like Smash.

[Jake]

Forrester would've won in 2002 also, until New Jersey decided the law didn't apply to Democrats.

[Moooooo]

The difference between Casey and Kean is that Casey would actually represent his state well. A moderate-to-conservative Democrat representing a democratic state. New Jersey on the other hand still leans democrat by a comfortable margin, and the thought of New Jersey electing a republican to represent them in the senate is laughable!

Kean is a pretty moderate Republican.  Ive looked into his voting record and it seems like he is very pro-enviornment.  He fits the state pretty well and his last name doesnt exactly hurt.

[TheresNoMoney]

Democrats have to be careful or they could lose the New Jersey Senate seat in 2006.

Better they go with Richard Codey or Rob Andrews instead of Menendez. Kean, Jr. will be a fairly strong candidate.

[Moooooo]

You are a real idiot. I honestly don't even expect this from people like Smash.

Your girlfriend give you the boot or something Phil?  Youve been awful bitchy lately.

[Keystone Phil]

You are a real idiot. I honestly don't even expect this from people like Smash.

Your girlfriend give you the boot or something Phil?  Youve been awful bitchy lately.

No, we're fine. Thanks for asking. My response is how I react all the time to idiot hacks like yourself, Sarnstrom, Smash, etc. I love how you can't even point out that he's flat out wrong about Kean.

Hey Nick, are the Dems going to have a shot in Arizona, too?

[Moooooo]

No, we're fine. Thanks for asking. My response is how I react all the time to idiot hacks like yourself, Sarnstrom, Smash, etc. I love how you can't even point out that he's flat out wrong about Kean.

Hey Nick, are the Dems going to have a shot in Arizona, too?

Does it make you feel good about yourself when you call people 'idiot' over the internet?  Your pathetic.

I guess you missed this too.

Kean is a pretty moderate Republican.  Ive looked into his voting record and it seems like he is very pro-enviornment.  He fits the state pretty well and his last name doesnt exactly hurt.

AZ - I dont remember claiming that this race was going to be competitive.  Thanks for putting words in my mouth.  IDIOT!  YAY, IM LIKE KEYSTONE PHIL!!!! IDOIT.

[Keystone Phil]

No, we're fine. Thanks for asking. My response is how I react all the time to idiot hacks like yourself, Sarnstrom, Smash, etc. I love how you can't even point out that he's flat out wrong about Kean.

Hey Nick, are the Dems going to have a shot in Arizona, too?

Does it make you feel good about yourself when you call people 'idiot' over the internet?  Your pathetic.

Yet you can make comments about my girlfriend dumping me? Uh...yeah.

Kean is a pretty moderate Republican.  Ive looked into his voting record and it seems like he is very pro-enviornment.  He fits the state pretty well and his last name doesnt exactly hurt.

I saw it. That's not flat out telling him he's wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You're a hack. I'm surprised you don't think AZ might be close.

[Sarnstrom]

First of all Phil don't call me an idiot, there is no need to get personal. Second I'll agree that Kean will be a strong candidate (I think he is pro-choice?) but I just don't think he's got a shot. And third Phil as much as you don't want to admit it the truth is that Pennsylvania does lean democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

First of all Phil don't call me an idiot, there is no need to get personal. Second I'll agree that Kean will be a strong candidate (I think he is pro-choice?) but I just don't think he's got a shot. And third Phil as much as you don't want to admit it the truth is that Pennsylvania does lean democrat.

No, you don't think he's strong. Your first post asked how he was strong. You are uninformed when it comes to this race. I wouldn't have called you an idiot if you didn't patronize me in your post.

He's strong but doesn't have a shot? Uh...?

PA does not lean Dem.

PA AG - Republican
PA's Two U.S. Senators - Republicans
PA's Congressional Delegation - Republican majority
PA State Legislature - Republican controlled

The Dems have the advantage on the Presidential level and control the Governorship, State Treasurer and State Auditor offices. How does it lean Dem?

[Moooooo]

Does it make you feel good about yourself when you call people 'idiot' over the internet?  Your pathetic.

That was a complete joke.  I actually thought you would laugh, but I should have known better.

[Keystone Phil]

Does it make you feel good about yourself when you call people 'idiot' over the internet?  Your pathetic.

That was a complete joke.  I actually thought you would laugh, but I should have known better.

And I figured that people wouldn't look at me as some vicious person who has a strong hate for people when I point out something that is wrong. I should have known better.

[Sarnstrom]

Phil using your reasoning, wouldn't Arkansas be considered a Democratic state? Plus we are talking about Pennsylvania statewide which does lean democrat. Since 1992 PA has on the average cast 49% for the DEM and only 43% for the GOP. The GOP has been doing a lot better while the DEM % has flattened. While twenty years from now PA could be a GOP state (just like my native state) for now it remains leaning toward the Democrats.

[Jake]

By the barest of bare margins on the Presidential level and not at all on the state or local level.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil using your reasoning, wouldn't Arkansas be considered a Democratic state? Plus we are talking about Pennsylvania statewide which does lean democrat. Since 1992 PA has on the average cast 49% for the DEM and only 43% for the GOP. The GOP has been doing a lot better while the DEM % has flattened. While twenty years from now PA could be a GOP state (just like my native state) for now it remains leaning toward the Democrats.

In regards to Congressional representation and local offices, yes, Arkansas would be a Dem state.

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

[Sarnstrom]

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

Yes Phil but the last time I check the Senate races were held statewide.

[Keystone Phil]

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

Yes Phil but the last time I check the Senate races were held statewide.

And both are Republicans, genius. What is your point?

[Sarnstrom]

No, PA doesn't lean Dem. We're talking about Congressional races in the Congressional board. Not the Presidential races.

Yes Phil but the last time I check the Senate races were held statewide.

And both are Republicans, genius. What is your point?

Pennsylvania in statewide elections leans democrat.