End of 2017: Is Trump favored to be re-elected?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

At this point, he's favored to lose decisively, but I don't know what's going to happen between now and 2020.

[Arkansas Yankee]

No. Every time he puts out nasty tweets he drives the center of the electorate toward the Democrats.

It did not hurt in fly over country in 2016, becacause Hillary was such a horrid candidate in that area. Also very few people thought Trump would win.

This also assumes the Democrats do not renominate Hillary or go wacko left.  I am sorry and I am sure I will be called a bigot, but Picking a LGBT candidate is going wacko left.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Yes, with ~350 electoral votes.

In 2016, Trump won with 306 electoral votes (not including the rouge electors). Let's see what path to victory is most likely, assuming he holds onto all of his 2016 electoral votes, shall we?
- +New Hampshire: 310
- +Nevada: 316
- +Minnesota: 326
- +Maine At-Large: 328
- +Colorado: 337
- +Virginia: 350

Do you seriously think that Trump will win Colorado/Virginia? Or do you think he'll lose Virginia but win some combination of Rhode Island and Oregon? What?

I think TexArkana is right for once.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Yes, with ~350 electoral votes.

In 2016, Trump won with 306 electoral votes (not including the rouge electors). Let's see what path to victory is most likely, assuming he holds onto all of his 2016 electoral votes, shall we?
- +New Hampshire: 310
- +Nevada: 316
- +Minnesota: 326
- +Maine At-Large: 328
- +Colorado: 337
- +Virginia: 350

Do you seriously think that Trump will win Colorado/Virginia? Or do you think he'll lose Virginia but win some combination of Rhode Island and Oregon? What?

I think TexArkana is right for once.

Yeah, a President with approval ratings this poor has never won re-election, period. let alone in a near-landslide.

[King Lear]

Yes, I believe he'll win all his 2016 states plus New Hampshie, Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

He's in a much stronger position than he looks like. The Democrats so relentlessly hammering him and catastrophizing everything he does means that if things don't actually turn out all that bad (if the economy stays strong and no wars break out), they'll look rather silly.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

He's in a much stronger position than he looks like. The Democrats so relentlessly hammering him and catastrophizing everything he does means that if things don't actually turn out all that bad (if the economy stays strong and no wars break out), they'll look rather silly.

I don't think so. people strongly dislike who he is as a person, even disregarding his policies.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If the election were held now, he'd be screwed, but I won't underestimate the possibility of him rebounding for 2020. I mean, we've been underestimating Trump from the day he declared till the day he was actually elected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, he's screwed. Trump has an approval rating south of 40%, that would cause him to lose decisively to whoever the Democrat nominee is.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

At this point, he's screwed. Trump has an approval rating south of 40%, that would cause him to lose decisively to whoever the Democrat nominee is.

"At this point" being the key part here. We don't know what will happen between now and 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, he's screwed. Trump has an approval rating south of 40%, that would cause him to lose decisively to whoever the Democrat nominee is.

"At this point" being the key part here. We don't know what will happen between now and 2020.

Yes. The title is: "End of 2017: Is Trump favored to be re-elected?"

[junior chįmp]

Of course not. The fat pig is on his way out

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Cmon, your delusional to think that he is favored. He can still certainly lose, but its the Democrats' race to blow.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't think so. people strongly dislike who he is as a person, even disregarding his policies.

This. That's why his approvals are so terrible, even with a "booming economy". I saw a prediction that Trump will survive even if there is a "blue wave" because he can paint the other side as obstructionists like Clinton and Obama. It is hogwash because Clinton and Obama were popular, and their first elections were mandates. They could afford to lose some votes by mobilizing their base and being relatively well liked by the public. Trump is an awful person, his win was weak, and he was against a candidate with high unfavorables and a depressed base. Trump can win against someone like.... Andrew Cuomo or something, but he is toast against a popular D or generic D. If he can't paint them as corrupt and dishonest to demoralize Democratic voters, there's no path to victory because he is a fundamentally mean person.

[Xing]

At this particular point I'd say he's more likely to lose, since I have no doubt he'd lose at least WI/MI/PA if the election were held today, but a lot can happen in three years.

[The Mikado]

He'd lose if the election were November 2018. November 2020 is a long way off, and Trump's numbers could theoretically benefit from the loss of Congress. Playing off of Speaker Pelosi might make him more popular, like Newt Gingrich did to Clinton or John Boehner did to Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

Conditional on him actually being the GOP nominee in November 2020, I'd say his chances of winning the election are about 50/50, but that's because Trump is weird, and some of the scenarios in which things go south for him politically involve him dropping out of the race for reelection or resigning the presidency altogether.  So the overall chance of him winning the general election is less than 50%, because there isn't a 100% chance that he'll still be running in November 2020.

Also, I'm curious about what you folks think about the idea I suggested here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273950.0

Yes, Trump's job approval is currently bad.  But other presidents have had bad job approvals and rebounded.  Does the fact that a president is up for reelection in itself actually cause his job approval to trend close to 50/50, on the reasoning that once a presidential election is approaching, people's partisan loyalties kick in, and so people who typically vote Republican but disapprove of Trump's job approval will become fans of him again once the election is upon us, and there's a Democratic challenger to contrast him to?

[Bojack Horseman]

Nobody with a 32% approval rating gets re-elected. If that were the case then Jimmy Carter would have won by a landslide in 1980.

[KingSweden]

I don’t think it is likely he is re-elected. There are scenarios where he could, but there are more paths to him losing than to him winning, IMO

[Pericles]

He's absolutely not the favorite. He could win, but it's stupid at this point to think he is likely to win.

[Arkansas Yankee]

He's in a much stronger position than he looks like. The Democrats so relentlessly hammering him and catastrophizing everything he does means that if things don't actually turn out all that bad (if the economy stays strong and no wars break out), they'll look rather silly.

I actually agree with you, if he stops the nasty tweets.  If he keeps them up he will lose as I said unless the Democrats nominate Hillary or go wacko left.   The nasty tweets even get on my nerves.  You can say the same things without being nasty.

[CookieDamage]

No. Every time he puts out nasty tweets he drives the center of the electorate toward the Democrats.

It did not hurt in fly over country in 2016, becacause Hillary was such a horrid candidate in that area. Also very few people thought Trump would win.

This also assumes the Democrats do not renominate Hillary or go wacko left.  I am sorry and I am sure I will be called a bigot, but Picking a LGBT candidate is going wacko left.

This is absolutely a bigoted thing to say. There's nothing "wacko" about being gay, lesbian, bi, or transgender. And if you think that nominating an LGBT dem is an unwise political move, say that, don't resort to petty and homophobic remarks like calling it "wacko left".

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No. Every time he puts out nasty tweets he drives the center of the electorate toward the Democrats.

It did not hurt in fly over country in 2016, becacause Hillary was such a horrid candidate in that area. Also very few people thought Trump would win.

This also assumes the Democrats do not renominate Hillary or go wacko left.  I am sorry and I am sure I will be called a bigot, but Picking a LGBT candidate is going wacko left.

This is absolutely a bigoted thing to say. There's nothing "wacko" about being gay, lesbian, bi, or transgender. And if you think that nominating an LGBT dem is an unwise political move, say that, don't resort to petty and homophobic remarks like calling it "wacko left".

This and your Kamala picture shows how blind you are to middle american ideals.

[super6646]

At this point, he's screwed. Trump has an approval rating south of 40%, that would cause him to lose decisively to whoever the Democrat nominee is.

"At this point" being the key part here. We don't know what will happen between now and 2020.

This

Also, I just have to comment on that sig of yours. What exactly was your inspiration to start it, and since when did you start doing rotations on the pictures? The last one was certainly the most... well how to put it... adult like. XD