Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Landslide Lyndon]

What happens if Moore never concedes?

The concession of the losing candidate is just convention, it doesn't actually matter

I'm pretty sure Marilyn Musgrave still hasn't conceded her 2008 race.

Alan Keyes never conceded to Barack Obama in 2004.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/940818742958870528

Nathan Mathis can tell himself tonight, "This time, it did avail."

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Where did you find this glorious info?

It was posted on twitter by a 538 guy.

[Landslide Lyndon]

College towns have been showing some interesting trends - especially college kids apparently starting to turn out more and more.

I'm really interested in the fact that white folks who live in the Black Belt are apparently more willing to vote for Democrats than those from neighboring counties.

This is a phenomenon I've observed across multiple elections in the rural Deep South. I initially considered that even small discrepancies in non-white support/turnout calcs could be having a disproportionate impact on white D projections in counties where whites are a small percentage (this definitely happens in the SW w/ Latinos). However, in the case of GA specifically, we have voter registration and turnout data by both race and county, and the trend still showed up even when maximizing black support. I ran some basic regression analysis awhile back and - to simplify - racial polarization among rural Southern whites tends to intensify substantially when blacks are between 25-55% of the population.

My amateur sociological guess is that when Southern whites aren't living alongside any meaningful number of blacks, they don't feel "threatened" politically (ergo, more willing to vote D); when they are beyond the point of being able to counter black political power, they're also more likely to vote Democratic due to a familiarity with black/Democratic local governance, and an understanding that the world isn't going to end. In between those two extremes exists an environment where the two groups can both wield political power and take it away from each other.

I will point out that 2 of the Black Belt counties in the AL projection were almost certainly being skewed by the initial concern I had in the first paragraph - both heavily-black counties (the heaviest-black 2 counties, IIRC). My calcs for Greene and Macon County suggested that 42 & 46% of whites there voted for Jones. I subsequently revised them using more detailed data.

That's pretty fascinating. Enough familiarity to breed contempt, but not enough to feel comfortable with. Monroe County immediately jumped out at me considering it was the closest county in the state and also had the lowest white vote for Jones.

That theory was first floated by Nate Silver during the 2008 Democratic primary. Silver observed that Obama won states which were blacks were either more than 20% of the electorate or less than 5%, but was losing states where they were in between.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Obviously ArkansasYankee thinks that elections in the US are managed the same way as in Russia, if you catch my drift.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jesus effing Christ, what a moron.



Someone inform her white affluent privileged ass that while blacks and the "crooked" DNC were busting their asses to elect Jones, her far-left comrades were badmouthing him and calling progressive Alabamians to stay home because he was insufficiently liberal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

her far-left comrades were badmouthing him

Source? TYT, PFB, etc. were all pushing hard for Jones.

'
I recall one Medium article from some far lefty saying Jones shouldn't be supported.

But that was a huge outlier from what I can tell.

There were enough Bernie bros on twitter who denounced Jones as another corporatist Dem. Even today, while Sanders himself comically tried to take credit for his victory, many of his supporters were bemoaning the fact that another "centrist" Dem won instead of a "true progressive". They even said that him winning by "only" 1.5 point against a child molester proves that they were right and Jones was a terrible candidate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

her far-left comrades were badmouthing him

Source? TYT, PFB, etc. were all pushing hard for Jones.

'
I recall one Medium article from some far lefty saying Jones shouldn't be supported.

But that was a huge outlier from what I can tell.

There were enough Bernie bros on twitter who denounced Jones as another corporatist Dem. Even today, while Sanders himself comically tried to take credit for his victory, many of his supporters were bemoaning the fact that another "centrist" Dem won instead of a "true progressive". They even said that him winning by "only" 1.5 point against a child molester proves that they were right and Jones was a terrible candidate.

Have you read his statement about Jones' win?

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, I'm literally crying from laughter right now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Again, don't let RINO Tom see this lol

You're actually the third one to make that joke.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm happy that the religious extremist and alleged pedophile didn't win, but Doug Jones isn't much to write home about. He hardly ever mentioned his positions on anything, and constantly focused on how bad his opponent was, and not what he wanted to do for Alabama. He had no substance to him, and that's why he only won by 1.5% against a known pedophile, despite having 10x more funding and the entire media system & politicians (including some Republicans) behind him.

Have you actually watched the race or did you just copy-paste this crap from www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/ ?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Listen how many Moore times do I need to say it? Yes Jones he did win an impressive victory, also doing a recount is pointless but the SOS should look into voter fraud.

Let me tell you a secret: the Alabama SoS is one of us. Master Soros has him in his back pocket.
So stop speaking or else a black helicopter will appear in the following hour and will take you to a secret FEMA reeducation camp where they will brain-wash you and suddenly you'll find yourself liking gay sex, arugula and Lena Dunham TV series.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The official Democratic line now is to ask for hearings and to give a chance to these women to tell their stories before congress.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What about CD results using 2010 districts?

Read message #376

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/943237485743755264

#ALSen: In Morgan County (Decatur), Luther Strange 215 write-in votes, Mo Brooks 72, Nick Saban 8
(PDF): http://www.morgancountyprobate.com/media/28474/write-ins-us-senate-general-121217.pdf … Write-ins 2.2% of Morgan vote

[Landslide Lyndon]

Limestone county write-ins fun.

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/decaturdaily.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/74/f74cabdf-d2eb-5ad0-acf2-181e2c865981/5a39b128db53e.pdf.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, you NEED to see the write-ins for Madison county.

https://www.madisoncountyvotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Write-In-Tabulation-12-12-17.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK, you NEED to see the write-ins for Madison county.

https://www.madisoncountyvotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Write-In-Tabulation-12-12-17.pdf

Only ONE vote for God? Smh, such "Christians"

There are 11 for Jesus.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A really classy fellow that Roy Moore is.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Doug has a gay son?


FF!!

Yeah and he's hot.

I knew you would say that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

Martha Coakley also sucked hard as a candidate but that didn't prevent Republicans from celebrating Scott Brown's win, or the media talking about "Democrats in disarray".

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir?

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir?

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

What would be the appropriate reaction for you, sir?

At the end of the day, the Democrats have an extra senate seat. How it was achieved is irrelevant at this point.

My point is, y’all are acting like this means the death of the Republicans and 2018 is going to be a blood bath. That isn’t true. It took everything the Democratic Party has to bet a child rapist.

Even if Republicans had nominated a normal candidate, Jones wouldn't have lost by more than 10 points. Which for a Democrat in Alabama would have been an amazing result.

Jones would have lost by like 20% against Strange.

No.
Strange was tainted by the shady way in which Bentley appointed him. Multiple polls around the time of the Republican runoff showed him performing worse than Moore against Jones.

Strange didn't sexually assault teens.