Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope
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  Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope
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Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope  (Read 68307 times)
Maxwell
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« Reply #275 on: December 14, 2017, 06:37:13 PM »

Arkansas Yankee, are you having a stroke? do you smell burning toast?
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Blackacre
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« Reply #276 on: December 14, 2017, 06:49:26 PM »

It's still hitting me that Alabama just elected a liberal Democrat. A pro-choice liberal Democrat, who managed to win 30% of whites in a deep south state. That's honestly amazing.

But yeah there's not going to be any major error that will change the result. The difference is too high. I do enjoy reading conspiracy theories about how Democrats stole elections (that they won fairly) for the lulz though.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #277 on: December 14, 2017, 08:03:04 PM »

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #278 on: December 14, 2017, 08:13:00 PM »

Jesus effing Christ, what a moron.



Someone inform her white affluent privileged ass that while blacks and the "crooked" DNC were busting their asses to elect Jones, her far-left comrades were badmouthing him and calling progressive Alabamians to stay home because he was insufficiently liberal.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #279 on: December 14, 2017, 08:29:32 PM »

her far-left comrades were badmouthing him

Source? TYT, PFB, etc. were all pushing hard for Jones.
'
I recall one Medium article from some far lefty saying Jones shouldn't be supported.

But that was a huge outlier from what I can tell.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #280 on: December 14, 2017, 08:34:17 PM »

her far-left comrades were badmouthing him

Source? TYT, PFB, etc. were all pushing hard for Jones.
'
I recall one Medium article from some far lefty saying Jones shouldn't be supported.

But that was a huge outlier from what I can tell.

There were enough Bernie bros on twitter who denounced Jones as another corporatist Dem. Even today, while Sanders himself comically tried to take credit for his victory, many of his supporters were bemoaning the fact that another "centrist" Dem won instead of a "true progressive". They even said that him winning by "only" 1.5 point against a child molester proves that they were right and Jones was a terrible candidate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #281 on: December 14, 2017, 08:44:26 PM »

her far-left comrades were badmouthing him

Source? TYT, PFB, etc. were all pushing hard for Jones.
'
I recall one Medium article from some far lefty saying Jones shouldn't be supported.

But that was a huge outlier from what I can tell.

There were enough Bernie bros on twitter who denounced Jones as another corporatist Dem. Even today, while Sanders himself comically tried to take credit for his victory, many of his supporters were bemoaning the fact that another "centrist" Dem won instead of a "true progressive". They even said that him winning by "only" 1.5 point against a child molester proves that they were right and Jones was a terrible candidate.

Huh

Have you read his statement about Jones' win?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #282 on: December 14, 2017, 08:46:04 PM »

her far-left comrades were badmouthing him
He must have... I imagine he reads every tweet or statement that Sanders puts out, religiously.
Source? TYT, PFB, etc. were all pushing hard for Jones.
'
I recall one Medium article from some far lefty saying Jones shouldn't be supported.

But that was a huge outlier from what I can tell.

There were enough Bernie bros on twitter who denounced Jones as another corporatist Dem. Even today, while Sanders himself comically tried to take credit for his victory, many of his supporters were bemoaning the fact that another "centrist" Dem won instead of a "true progressive". They even said that him winning by "only" 1.5 point against a child molester proves that they were right and Jones was a terrible candidate.

Huh

Have you read his statement about Jones' win?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #283 on: December 14, 2017, 09:41:51 PM »


Have you been to college or are you still in middle school?

Assuming the latter:

A transposition would involve an 11,000 figure of votes in Jones column, when itnshould have gone in Moore’s column.  Thus, Jones down 11,000 and Moore up 11,000.  Oops!  Moore is now ahead.

Can you give an example of something like this happening in our country's history?  lol

First time for everything, of course, but still....
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Kamala
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« Reply #284 on: December 14, 2017, 09:54:25 PM »


Have you been to college or are you still in middle school?

Assuming the latter:

A transposition would involve an 11,000 figure of votes in Jones column, when itnshould have gone in Moore’s column.  Thus, Jones down 11,000 and Moore up 11,000.  Oops!  Moore is now ahead.

Can you give an example of something like this happening in our country's history?  lol

First time for everything, of course, but still....

Funnily enough, it happened in Alabama, Baldwin County in 2002. Somehow, the error was only misattributing Riley votes for Seigelman, and there were zero votes that were mistaken the other way! Interesting...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #285 on: December 14, 2017, 10:05:34 PM »

OK, I'm literally crying from laughter right now.




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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #286 on: December 14, 2017, 10:16:47 PM »

During the certification process Moor will find an 11,000 transposition mistake in Jefferson county that will put him ahead.
None of this makes sense. The Baldwin County fiasco happened after midnight on election night. Not a week and a half later.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #287 on: December 14, 2017, 10:23:03 PM »

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #288 on: December 14, 2017, 10:24:33 PM »

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?

You forgot the dead people who voted.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #289 on: December 14, 2017, 10:33:18 PM »

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?

You forgot the dead people who voted.

That would explain all the Kennedy write-ins...
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Sestak
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« Reply #290 on: December 14, 2017, 10:35:00 PM »

Republicans:

->Scream voter fraud when they lose

->Impose incredibly restrictive, suppressing voter ID laws which they claim will fix voter fraud

->Lose anyway

->Scream voter fraud when they lose
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #291 on: December 14, 2017, 10:47:31 PM »

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?

You forgot the dead people who voted.

That would explain all the Kennedy write-ins...

Go to the al.com facebook page and read some of the comments. You'll see some other interesting theories.
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Intell
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« Reply #292 on: December 15, 2017, 12:41:52 AM »

Clinton supporters are still there with their usual incoherent takes. Your candidate lost the general election, get over it. The people are sick of the establishment, and yes, it is good that Jones won, and yes every progressive should have voted for him (and most progressives did support him). And yes, Jones is not a perfect politicians in terms of ideology and saying that doesn't mean progressives didn't support his victory.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #293 on: December 15, 2017, 12:53:49 AM »

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?

You forgot the dead people who voted.

That's an old favorite.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #294 on: December 15, 2017, 04:00:21 AM »

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?

You forgot the dead people who voted.

That's an old favorite.

I think Jesus Christ might have voted 12 times...

Running through the voter registration files from Franklin County Alabama, this guy called Jesus Christo, aka Juan Chavez, and Jesus Rodriguez voted multiple times.

Now after doing a bit more research on the Internet, I discovered that he worked at the largest employer in the County, the Pilgrim Poultry Processing plant, lost his finger in an industrial accident, was fired from his job despite following all safety protocols because he was considered a Union Agitator, and the Trump Administration went down hard on him because his paperwork was out of status even though he was married to a White Woman with two kids together both Born in the USA....

Now seriously, unless some of the Wackos out here try to post this as a legitimate report, it is 100% satire.

That being said, most Political observers and Atlas posters tend to focus on the "Black"/ "White" voting dichotomy in Alabama (And most parts of the South), while also neglecting the growing Latino section of the population that not only live and work in "Urban Areas" of the State/Region, but actually are most concentrated in the "Poultry Belt" of the Deep South....

How did Latino-Americans vote in Alabama in 2017?

We will likely never know without being able to at least pull up a few precinct numbers from heavily Latino-American precincts to compare/contrast with previous elections...

How did Asian-Americans vote in Alabama in 2017?

We will likely never know the numbers considering that we have a handful of Counties where this is 2-3% of the Vote (So precinct level data overlapped with Census Data is virtually meaningless).

How did Jewish-Americans and Muslim-Americans vote in Alabama in 2017?

We will likely never really know, although at least I can pull up a few precincts around Schuls in the larger Cities in 'Bama once the SoS results are certified to see those numbers.

How did Catholic voters in 'Bama vote in '17?

Again, we likely will never know the answer, but considering that 40% of Alabama White voters did not self-identify as White Evangelicals (60-40 Jones Huh), the White Catholic Vote was likely a significant component of the Jones win, especially around places like Mobile and Baldwin County (Cajun Vote Huh).

Despite the fact that 59% of Alabama voters 65+ voted Moore, which is actually remarkable considering the extremely large percentage of African-Americans 65+ that also vote with extremely high turnout (Civil Rights Movement anyone???), the numbers from those under the age of 45 should be shocking numbers for any 'Pub wanting to run for any office in the Great State of Alabama.

The days of the White Crazy Grandparents who backed George Wallace back in the days are:

"Gone with the Wind...   Nobody looking back again....  Song, song of the South, a sweet potato pie and a shut my mouth"

After we defeated the White Supremacist rule in the Jim Crow Deep South, and Jimmy Carter becomes Pres, the sneaky weasels devised another strategy...

LBJ famously said when he signed the Civil Rights Voting Act into law (Which he personally believed was a moral imperative as a 'Po White from the Hill Country of Central Tex, and honestly Kennedy's assassination gave him enough of a majority to get the job done).... 

Paraphrase here...

"We have lost the South for at least a Generation or more"

So what do the 'Pubs do under the "Party of Reagan"?

Double down on the White Evangelical Vote, so Reagan can pay his debts from the '76 failed Primary challenge against Ford, and successful victory in the 'Pub Primary in '80.

At this point the 'Pubs have front-loaded Southern Primaries (Other than the obvious IA and NH), which gives a disproportionate influence to what is actually a relatively smaller sliver of the US Electorate (Evangelical White Christians---- Sorry Dad Sad   ).

So what happens when you have on the one hand a dramatic age voting gap between Senior Citizen voters and Middle-Age and Younger voters?

The flawed and failed strategy of Dick Nixon and Ronald Reagan to pander to the vestiges of the White Supremacist vote in the Deep South is rapidly coming to an end....

Might have worked as a medium term political strategy for quite a few decades (God, Gays, Guns) and the 'Pubs pretty much controlled the Presidency between '68-'04 with a few exceptions here and there, flipped the US-SEN and US-House over time, after many Working Class Southern Democrats and other parts of the Country rolled with that train for various reasons.

Reality is that as the old racist folks gradually passed away, religion replaced racism as the reason to vote 'Pub in state like Alabama, which Carter won in '76 and narrowly lost in '80 against Reagan.

Now, I get the anger against the whole Establishment "Country Club" Republican Party in Alabama and nationally at the hands of older, rural, and working-class Republicans out there...

The Textile manufacturing industry in NE ' Bama was virtually destroyed not that many years back.

Where were the 'Pubs to protect those jobs while they were busy ramming through Free Trade agreements when Bill Clinton was Pres?

Where was Bill Clinton to stand up for American Workers, while our Factories and Mills were getting shut down and jobs shipped overseas when he signed NAFTA into law with a Republican House and enough Democrats to pass it down the line in the Senate?

Is it any wonder that the "Republican Civil War" narrative is heavily focused on the Bannon/Trump wing representing the "Populist Wing" of the 'Pubs vs the "Establishment Wing" (Country Club style 'Pubs)?

It is actually fascinating that although many on this Forum are obsessed with the Bernie/Clinton division in the '16 Dem Primaries, we are ignoring the big Story, which are the massive schisms now that the 'Pubs in theory have absolute control of all branches of Government.

Sort of reminds me of this old Punk Classic song from the UK band "The Subhumans": Subvert City, which if one listens the soundtrack closely talks about totalitarianism from both the Left and the Right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMGPs_b2Gu8
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #295 on: December 15, 2017, 04:54:56 AM »

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.



Where did you find this glorious info?

Although Landslide Lyndon apparently still has some residual issues from the '16 Dem Primary, I believe he likely pulled it from here, and somehow converted the unofficial election results from a PDF, and summarized the numbers....

http://jeffcoprobatecourt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Unofficial-Precinct-Report-12-12-17.pdf

Still, Landslide Lyndon seems like a pretty chill and cool cat overall, and A+ poster to the Forum, and Mountain Brook (Pop 25k ?)  was considered to be "Ground Zero" (Most educated City, Wealthy White Suburban Birmingham voters, etc) as to where one might expect some of the biggest swings towards Doug Jones....

Seem to recall reading elsewhere that HRC only captured something like 35% of the vote out there in '16 (Haven't run the '12 > '16 numbers yet for this City), but yeah if you are looking at 60% swings between the '16 Pres and '17 Sen, this is obviously a major issue for Republicans in suburban Birmingham.....

(Hint is overwhelmingly White 95%, 30% of households have income > $200k, 61% of househols > $100k/Yr)

This is actually a bit interesting in that I'm not convinced we saw the same margin swings among Upper-Incomes White in Alabama and Mississippi between '12 and '16 towards HRC that we saw in major suburban areas of other Southern States, including Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina, para ejemplo....

Never ran precinct numbers on the Upper Income precincts in 'Bama nor Mississippi, but did chip in a small number of precinct level consolidation summary reports on this thread...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0

I'm actually suspecting that the White Wealthy suburban vote swing that we saw in 'Bama in the US-SEN special election, might be a bit of a delayed reaction to Trumpism (Combined with the alleged Felon they selected as their candidate) among certain populations within the State.

Needless to say the Jones winning Dem coalition had tons of legs to stand on in a State that is actually much more electorally complex and versatile than the main stream media narrative of the race.



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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #296 on: December 15, 2017, 06:28:18 AM »

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.


Again, don't let RINO Tom see this lol
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Gustaf
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« Reply #297 on: December 15, 2017, 08:01:27 AM »

I know I'm late to the party but Ben Kenobi's "model" is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on this forum.

Also very happy to see Jones pull this out. Insane that Moore could get as close as he did but I guess we have to take what we can get from Alabama. Tongue
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #298 on: December 15, 2017, 08:06:34 AM »

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.


Again, don't let RINO Tom see this lol

You're actually the third one to make that joke.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #299 on: December 15, 2017, 08:11:26 AM »

I know I'm late to the party but Ben Kenobi's "model" is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on this forum.
it was and the fact he was so confident made it so effing hilarious
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