Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Holmes]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

I don't know. I said everything I heard.

[Matty]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

I don't know. I said everything I heard.

Is this a 100% legit source or could you be being mislead?

[Badger]

I have about changed course.

I thought Moore could be expelled for denying writing part of the yearbook notation.  I believe he wrote the potion below the signature.  Still think there is a strong possibility Nelson manufactured the signature. After some research I have found that almost nothing during a campaign, except corruption can get a Senator expelled. I guess that is best.  If lying was a grounds, there would be no one in the Senate.

I am not sure there would even be grounds for an ethics hearing.  Would he lie under oath?

Moore is a nut.  I do not want him in the Senate. I also think he is mean personally and publicly. I hate Bannon.

I would now join Senator Shelby in casting a write in vote.

If people like me change, Jones may have a chance.  He needs to run ads that Moore, if elected, can not be expelled.

I do think you should have run a true Blue Dog.

There's Hope for everyone I guess

And In fairness oh, do you really think it would make a difference to 99% of more voters? I mean Christ, Trump called the man who spent his entire career enforcing the law rather than breaking it like his closest Chums and Roy Moore " bad on crime". We can run Richard Shelby changing back to a Democrat tomorrow and 99% of more voters would just consider him another Democrat who would support liberalism.

[Adam Griffin]

Moore won Etowah county in 2012 but it gave him some pretty weak numbers, especially for his home base. Since then, with the allegations, I would keep a close eye on that one Tuesday.

Yeah, and not only then, but it gave him a pathetic showing in the GOP primary run-off as well (57%). He did do pretty well there in the three-way in August, though (51%), but picked up less than half of the non-Moore/non-Strange vote in the run-off. In fact, he significantly under-performed IMO throughout most of rural NE AL.

[Santander]

The Hitler quote thing does need some context guys... he didn't mean it in a good way.

[Brittain33]

Emerson shows Moore reopening a lead of 9 points over Jones. Now, Emerson has always shown the biggest leads for Moore, but that's pretty sizable for the day before Election Day.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Credit were credit is due Icespear called this dead to rights

[BudgieForce]

Credit were credit is due Icespear called this dead to rights

The election hasnt actually happend yet.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

[BudgieForce]

Obama doing a robocall telling voters to reject Roy Moore.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/politics/barack-obama-alabama-senate/index.html

Ummmm, I’m hoping this robocall is being confined to the Montgomery CSA and the rest of the black belt.

Yeah, that might actually hurt Jones in most parts of Alabama.

[America Needs R'hllor]

“No matter how much money he’s got, he’s still going to the same place that people who don’t recognize God and morality and accept his salvation are going,” Moore said of Soros in an interview on American Family Radio earlier this week. “And that’s not a good place.”

That a**hole is an antisemite, as well. Seriously, there is NO justification to support Roy Moore- any one who endorses him is a pedopilia and sexual assault apologist, and endorses extreme, hateful homophobia and antisemitism.

[Brittain33]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Fox New has Jones up by 10.

Interesting if they are right.  They base it on Democrat enthusiasm.  I think they may be right.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/11/fox-news-poll-enthused-democrats-give-jones-lead-over-moore-in-alabama.html

[SteveRogers]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I feel confident in predicting that the final result will be somewhere between these two polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I feel confident in predicting that the final result will be somewhere between these two polls.

At this point, I'm not even confident in that.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Moving it from Lean to Likely D. Jones wins by 6.

That's... Bold.
Moving it from likely R to lean R, myself.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Pyro]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

[Sestak]

Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?

[Alabama_Indy10]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?

Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.

[Horus]

Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?

Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.

I thought FOX polls actually favored the Dem slightly, at least last year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?

Fox polls usually favor the republican slightly, so the fact Jones is up by nearly double digits in a poll by them is extremely good news for liberals, and most people on this site are liberals. Of course, overall these past two polls haven't changed the average, my best guess is that it was 2 polls in highly democratic or republican areas.

I thought FOX polls actually favored the Dem slightly, at least last year.

Fox polls conducted by Anderson & Shaw (as in this case) are rated A by 538 with a bias of D+0.4.  538 also has an entry for Fox polls conducted by Opinion Dynamics, which is rated B and R+0.5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you don't follow the polls board, you've missed that we have a Moore +9 poll from Emerson and a Jones +10 poll from Fox News today. Anyone's guess.

I am extremely ready for this election to be over.

Just try living here.. I can't wait for the constant commercials, phone calls, mail, etc. to stop.

Those of us in metro Atlanta sympathize (#ga06).  Cheer up, it will all be over soon.

[Holmes]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

Hey marty, it was Fox after all.