Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I too believe in the Blue Wave. That's been my thinking. I don't think it will be a blow out for Jones, but he could pull through. Less than 3 days.

[Mr. Smith]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

The AL SoS office disagrees

[Alabama_Indy10]

  All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.

For the 100th time, Mo Brooks is not very popular in Alabama. He strongly opposed Trump in the primary, why would Trump endorse him now? Makes no sense, especially since Brooks isn’t very popular to begin with.

[Matty]

Will there be any new polls released between now and tuesday?

[IceSpear]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide. The best Jones has gotten is a small lead in that Washington Post poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

[Doimper]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

[Landslide Lyndon]

To be fair, Gravis also hedged their bets. Their normal model showed Jones +2 but they also used a different one that shows Moore winning.

[IceSpear]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

They're a pretty awful pollster. SUSA is far from perfect, but it is established and credible.

Also, Jones is only up that amount if you assume the electorate that turns out on Tuesday gives Trump a net negative approval rating. I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.

[Holmes]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

[MT Treasurer]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

The Washington Post also has Jones up 3, and even they underestimated Northam in VA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Doimper]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

Yes, but half of those models used 2016 vote weights. A decent number of respondents aren't going to honestly answer that they voted for a president with a 36% approval rating, so using self-reported presidential vote as a way to weigh the results is inherently going to marginalize regretful Trump voters that are more likely to vote for Jones.

There's a lot of uncertainty involved with polling a race like this, but the complete and utter pessimism that a lot of people here are infected with is unwarranted.

[swf541]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

Yes, but half of those models used 2016 vote weights. A decent number of respondents aren't going to honestly answer that they voted for a president with a 36% approval rating, so using self-reported presidential vote as a way to weigh the results is inherently going to marginalize regretful Trump voters that are more likely to vote for Jones.

There's a lot of uncertainty involved with polling a race like this, but the complete and utter pessimism that a lot of people here are infected with is unwarranted.

[Doimper]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

People cherry pick to confirm their own narratives. Like LimoLiberal(R-VA) and the guy on RRH who posts only the best GCB and Trump approval polls that still are rough lol.

I'm not cherry-picking, you dingus, I'm using the model that SurveyMonkey themselves ended up going with. SurveyMonkey is obviously an outlier, and there's no way Jones is winning by eight, but it's still a data point.

[The Other Castro]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

[MT Treasurer]

Jones winning by 8 is pretty unlikely (though definitely within the realms of possibility), but I wouldn't simply dismiss the poll as junk (see also: Quinnipiac in VA). In fact, I would not be shocked if one of those "outliers" turned out to be pretty accurate in the end.

[Bidenworth2020]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

lol this is so random.

[The Other Castro]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

lol this is so random.

AP's test results appear fairly realistic for this race, though turnout seems too high. They should try to be more unrealistic in case anyone accidentally thinks the numbers are real.

[kyc0705]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

what if this turns out to be the exact vote total

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

lol this is so random.

AP's test results appear fairly realistic for this race, though turnout seems too high. They should try to be more unrealistic in case anyone accidentally thinks the numbers are real.

I remember on Super Tuesday one of the networks published test data for exit polls before polls closed and some users seemed to believe the data was legit.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

Didn't the Alabama AG predict 20% turnout?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

With all the headlines and hubbub, I wouldn't be so sure about that whole "low turnout" thing.

Didn't the Alabama AG predict 20% turnout?

He started at 25%, lowered it to 20% due to voter "frustration and exhaustion", then raised it to "at least 25%" due to the very high absentee ballot requests.