Which of these five Trump states is least likely to flip Democratic?

[TDAS04]

Which is most likely to stay Repiblican?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

From most to least likely to flip:

1. Michigan (Tilt/Lean D)
2. Florida (Tossup)
3. Pennsylvania (Tossup)
4. Wisconsin (Tossup)
5. Arizona (Tossup/maybe Tilt R)

I agree with this.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

From most to least likely to flip:

1. Michigan (Tilt/Lean D)
2. Florida (Tossup)
3. Pennsylvania (Tossup)
4. Wisconsin (Tossup)
5. Arizona (Tossup/maybe Tilt R)

I agree with this.

Me to.

[TDAS04]

I could see an argument for any of these, except maybe Michigan.

Many of you probably think Arizona is the obvious answer and doesn’t belong on the list, but many on Atlas underestimated how much the state would trend last time.  Even some posters who believed Hillary would win the election handily didn’t think Arizona would be close.  After all, it had remained pretty static the previous four elections right?  That reasoning didn’t seem to take into account the specific circumstances of 2008 and 2012—McCain was from Arizona, and Romney was a great fit for the state.  It’s more likely than not to vote Democratic next time, especially if there is decent Hispanic turnout (a big if, obviously, but I would image there’s quite a bit anger in the community at Mr. “ build the wall”.

[here2view]

1. Michigan
2. Pennsylvania
3. Wisconsin
4. Florida
5. Arizona

Florida typically votes +1 or +2 Republican when compared to the country as a whole. Obama edged out a victory by less than 1% in 2012 when he won the popular vote by 3.9%. You can make a case for PA, WI, and FL to be arranged in any order. I think it's that close - I wouldn't disagree with Florida being #2 instead.

Arizona in 2016 wasn't as close as it looks in my opinion. Democrats have been right around 44% or 45% in every election since 2000. There is room to improve, but Trump lost out with some voting third party. He's the only Republican to get below 51% there in the past 5 elections. I don't know whether that's an indictment on Trump or the Republican party for 2020 though.

[MarkD]

I could see an argument for any of these, except maybe Michigan.

Many of you probably think Arizona is the obvious answer and doesn’t belong on the list, but many on Atlas underestimated how much the state would trend last time.  Even some posters who believed Hillary would win the election handily didn’t think Arizona would be close.  After all, it had remained pretty static the previous four elections right?  That reasoning didn’t seem to take into account the specific circumstances of 2008 and 2012—McCain was from Arizona, and Romney was a great fit for the state.  It’s more likely than not to vote Democratic next time, especially if there is decent Hispanic turnout (a big if, obviously, but I would image there’s quite a bit anger in the community at Mr. “ build the wall”.

I would still say that Arizona is the obvious choice among these five, and not just because the state voted R in 2008 and 2012. It's because of 25 years worth of voting R for U.S. Senate and a predominantly R state legislature. Expecting a bigger turnout among Hispanic voters is tenuous because, no matter how angry they may be about Mr. "build the wall," if they are not U.S. citizens they are not eligible to vote. I expect the voter turnout in the predominantly Hispanic congressional districts (AZ-3 and AZ-7) to remain low.

[TDAS04]

But as more become citizens, and as more reach voting age...

Who 10 years ago could have imagined California being so lopsided now? 

[CookieDamage]

1. Michigan
2. Pennsylvania (turnout in Philly, Erie, Pittsburgh, and many of the smaller dem areas like Scranton, as well as depressed turnout amongst GOP areas can easily flip the state blue)
3. Florida
4. Wisconsin
5. Arizona

[TML]

Definitely Arizona.

Democrats should probably avoid investing in AZ unless they are on track to win 320+ EVs.

[History505]

Arizona. The other four are just your swing states, where no one Republican or Democrat has a lock a little less than 3 years away.

[NOVA Green]

Florida (Normal Vote)....

Whites/Anglos 65 + have been his largest demographic nationally, and the only reason he won Florida by reasonable margins in 2016...

Florida is much less elastic than the other states on the "poll" and has much fewer of the Obama/Trump cross-over voters than PA, MI, and Wisconsin....

Regardless of the much vaunted "Latino Surge" that does not appeared to have manifested in FL, as opposed to AZ, not to mention other states not on the poll such as CA and TX....

Still, there are enough Rust Belt retirees from Modest WWC backgrounds that voted Obama/Trump in Tampa- St Pete Alone to flip the state around, especially once the austerity from the 2017 Republican Tax bill hits home.....

[King Lear]

Arizona by far. As much as democrats think they can win it the only reason it was close was because of Gary Johnson taking republican votes from trump.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Arizona by far. As much as democrats think they can win it the only reason it was close was because of Gary Johnson taking republican votes from trump.

Not an Arizonan, I see.

[IceSpear]

Arizona by far. As much as democrats think they can win it the only reason it was close was because of Gary Johnson taking republican votes from trump.

Not an Arizonan, I see.

Probably fortunate for him, judging from the Atlas contingent of Arizona posters, lol.