How will Shelby County AL vote?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss. I say 50-55% Moore

[Tintrlvr]

Shelby should swing harder than the state as a whole towards Jones, but probably not enough to actually flip even if Jones is winning by mid-single digits, so I say it ends up around 54% Moore.

[Hydera]

Roy Moore will probably get 55%-62%. Still huge but not as big as in usual elections. Nonreligious/atheist/non-practicing Shelby county republicans will swing hard to Doug Jones. But He'll still win it because of social conservatives and suburban republicans whose only reason for voting is lower taxes and that outweighs any distaste they might have for Roy Moore.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Depends on how serious the prospect of a write in campaign becomes. Shelby County will have one of the highest percentage of votes cast for somebody other than Moore or Jones either way, but a serious run by another Republican for a write in campaign could swing enough votes away from Moore (in conjunction with what will already be a boost to Jones' numbers above the usual Democratic performance here) and actually flip it for Jones. Otherwise, Moore will most likely win it, but just barely, with only a plurality, and quite plausibly by less than a 5% margin.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Wasn't there a big scandal in Shelby County about pedophiles having clout with county government?

[Adam Griffin]

Low 60s for Moore assuming no real write-in campaign.

[Del Tachi]

50-55% Moore

[smoltchanov]

About 55% Moore. And this will still be an achievement..

[Tartarus Sauce]

Depends on how serious the prospect of a write in campaign becomes. Shelby County will have one of the highest percentage of votes cast for somebody other than Moore or Jones either way, but a serious run by another Republican for a write in campaign could swing enough votes away from Moore (in conjunction with what will already be a boost to Jones' numbers above the usual Democratic performance here) and actually flip it for Jones. Otherwise, Moore will most likely win it, but just barely, with only a plurality, and quite plausibly by less than a 5% margin.

Actually, I rescind this prediction. For some reason, I thought Shelby was a 60s Trump/30s Clinton county and a boosted Jones turnout with enough third candidate votes/crossover votes could actually flip it for Jones. It's actually a consistently 70%+ Republican county that hasn't voted over 30% for a Democrat in a federal race for several decades.

I do still expect Jones to perform much better here than any recent Democrat and for a significant amount of crossover/other votes. Upper bounds I would expect to be Jones actually cracking into the low 40s, which would be a massive swing away from Shelby's usual crushing Republican margins, but not enough to win it.