Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Brittain33]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Madison County = Huntsville = highly educated. Good sign for Jones if it's disproportionately represented.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing that Jones would need support from there to win, but this is a county that voted SOLIDLY for Donald Trump ... "educated county = Democratic county" is ridiculous.

Sure, and I'm not saying it's a "Democratic county" by most normal standards. It swung significantly away from Trump vs. Romney and it's an area where given the special circumstances of the Moore-Jones race I'd expect Jones to run especially strong. It's about the margins. Obviously higher turnout in largely Af-Am counties would be more unequivocally helpful for Jones.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Madison County = Huntsville = highly educated. Good sign for Jones if it's disproportionately represented.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing that Jones would need support from there to win, but this is a county that voted SOLIDLY for Donald Trump ... "educated county = Democratic county" is ridiculous.

True, but "educated" may well mean "less Moore-friendly".  In the first-round R primary, Moore got only 19% of the Madison County vote, compared to Brooks's 50% and Strange's 27%.  Strange also won the county in the runoff.

[Pericles]

My home-brew polling average(which includes internal polls) has Jones up 0.2%, 46.6% to 46.4%.

[Former Kentuckian]

For those asking about the straight ticket option on the ballots, there are special elections in State Senate District 26 and State House District 4 on the same day so some places will have other races to vote for, too. That could also affect the vote as well. Senate District 26 is in Montgomery and House District R is in the Huntsville area.

[Bidenworth2020]

My home-brew polling average(which includes internal polls) has Jones up 0.2%, 46.6% to 46.4%.

Internals from both sides

[Gass3268]

Jeff Flake donated $100 to Doug Jones

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For those asking about the straight ticket option on the ballots, there are special elections in State Senate District 26 and State House District 4 on the same day so some places will have other races to vote for, too. That could also affect the vote as well. Senate District 26 is in Montgomery and House District R is in the Huntsville area.

Ballotpedia lists both elections as happening next year: https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_state_legislative_special_elections,_2018

I don't feel like futher discussing this would be very fruitful, I'll just reiterate that only a few polls have shown the race outside the margin of error, and Washington Post and Gravis have Jones ahead. MA wasn't considered "elastic" at the senatorial level either before Scott Brown pulled off the upset.

Something to note: A week out from the 2010 race, Brown was ahead at RCP. Jones is not.

[Dr. Arch]

Jeff Flake donated $100 to Doug Jones

Surprising he actually did something.

[Former Kentuckian]

For those asking about the straight ticket option on the ballots, there are special elections in State Senate District 26 and State House District 4 on the same day so some places will have other races to vote for, too. That could also affect the vote as well. Senate District 26 is in Montgomery and House District R is in the Huntsville area.

Ballotpedia lists both elections as happening next year: https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_state_legislative_special_elections,_2018

I don't feel like futher discussing this would be very fruitful, I'll just reiterate that only a few polls have shown the race outside the margin of error, and Washington Post and Gravis have Jones ahead. MA wasn't considered "elastic" at the senatorial level either before Scott Brown pulled off the upset.

Something to note: A week out from the 2010 race, Brown was ahead at RCP. Jones is not.

The primaries are on December 12

Proof: http://www.alreporter.com/2017/12/04/special-election-guidance-for-voters-in-state-house-district-4-and-senate-district-26/

[Santander]

$100 by check a week before the campaign finishes. A lot of good that will do. If he really cared, he'd be in Alabama campaigning for Jones.

[Pericles]

“Men who hurt little girls should go to jail, not the US Senate,”-Doug Jones

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/05/roy-moore-doug-jones-alabama-senate-race

Other gems; “Roy Moore has never, ever served our state with honor," "He was already an embarrassment before nine courageous women chose to share their stories.”
“I have never lived off of donations from a so-called charitable foundation,”
When you see me with a gun, I’ll be climbing in and out of a deer blind,” “not prancing around on a stage in a cowboy suit.”

[The Other Castro]

Obvious grain of salt, but someone I know that works (low level) in the RNC says they decided to go back in for Moore because their data shows he is very likely to win.

[Santander]

Bannon is going to rally with Moore tonight.

[BudgieForce]

Obvious grain of salt, but someone I know that works (low level) in the RNC says they decided to go back in for Moore because their data shows he is very likely to win.

If hes likely to win, why bother embarrassing themselves and just let nature take its course? Moore could very well win, but I dont buy what your friend is selling.

[The Ex-Factor]

I don't feel like futher discussing this would be very fruitful, I'll just reiterate that only a few polls have shown the race outside the margin of error, and Washington Post and Gravis have Jones ahead. MA wasn't considered "elastic" at the senatorial level either before Scott Brown pulled off the upset.

I know it's been mentioned before, but given how this is a special election during the holiday season in an off-year, I trust the polling average less than usual; it's going to come down to turnout, and it's very difficult to predict how many squishy Republicans will show up at the ballot box to vote for Moore or to just stay home and not vote.

[junior chįmp]

Apparently the Moore campaign has released an official campaign song their going to use to open Trump's rally with:

Roy Moore Campaign Song - Moore 2018 YouTube

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Apparently the Moore campaign has released an official campaign song their going to use to open Trump's rally with:

Roy Moore Campaign Song - Moore 2018 YouTube

Very funny.

[Cactus Jack]

"When you see me with a gun, I’ll be climbing in and out of a deer blind, not prancing around on a stage in a cowboy suit.”

This may be Jones' funniest burn yet.

[mcmikk]

I'm a little late, but here's the full video of Doug's latest rally. He was pretty brutal to Moore here. The rally doesn't actually start until roughly 23 minutes in though.

[Kamala]

Anyone has any ideas how a Jones victory county would look like?

I honestly have no clue, but :

[Holmes]

Anyone has any ideas how a Jones victory county would look like?

I honestly have no clue, but :

No way Jones wins Shelby, but keeping the margin small is important in his path to victory.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Anyone has any ideas how a Jones victory county would look like?

I honestly have no clue, but :

Basically like this. Jones needs MASSIVE black turnout in the black belt + big margins out of Jefferson and Montgomery. he also needs to win Madison by about 5% and Mobile by 10%+

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

"When you see me with a gun, I’ll be climbing in and out of a deer blind, not prancing around on a stage in a cowboy suit.”

This may be Jones' funniest burn yet.

Yea he's from Alabama not Texas, very odd.

[Yank2133]

https://twitter.com/BenSasse/status/938201792705368064

There is no bigger fraud in politics then that ass clown Ben Sasse.

[Yank2133]

https://twitter.com/BenSasse/status/938201792705368064

There is no bigger fraud in politics then that ass clown Ben Sasse.

Guarantee you liberals on CNN will praise him though

No doubt.

He will say some witty thing on twitter about Trump and liberals and beltway pundits will applaud him. But when it is time to actually show some political courage he will whiff.

He is a much bigger fraud then Rubio, Flake, hell even Paul Ryan.