Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Brittain33]

Looks like all that talk of "Moore momentum" in this race was basically just hot air, see also VA-GOV.

Different situation

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

True, but no one expects Jones to win by 9 points like Northam did. We'd be ecstatic if we won by 200 votes.

[TheSaint250]

Lol the RNC is only going back in w/ 50k per Twitter

That doesn't even seem worth the bad PR

Still they should keep him cut off

[Doimper]

Anyone else watch the Jones speech on CNN? Really good stuff; I hadn't heard him speak at length before and he hit all the right buttons. Also made sure to mention that he was "a strong supporter of the 2nd Amendment".

[MT Treasurer]

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

Polling underestimated Democrats by a lot in VA, it could easily happen again in this race. Almost no one predicted that McCaskill would win in a landslide either because the "state was just too Republican", and yet she outperformed her RCP polling average by 10 percentage points. Some posters also dismissed any poll that showed John Bel Edwards up significantly as junk because there was no way a Democrat could win over so many "racist LA hicks" in a special election, how did that turn out again?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Special elections are notoriously difficult to predict/poll, and it is not every day that a Republican candidate is accused of pedophilia. People also like to talk about how "inelastic" AL is, and yet a Democrat came within 3 points of winning in SC-05 (a district I wouldn't really consider that elastic).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not denying that, I was just talking about the supposed "momentum" of Roy Moore in this race, which IMO is basically non-existent.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's a sample ballot from Baldwin County.

What happens if a voter fills in the circle beside 'Republican' AND the circle beside 'Doug Jones'?  I can't find the answer.

snip

I believe Siren actually asked that question a while ago and found out that you can select straight ticket, but if you also fill in the option for a specific Senate candidate, it will count for that candidate.

It's bizarre that they include the straight-party voting option at all when there is literally only one race on the ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a sample ballot from Baldwin County.

What happens if a voter fills in the circle beside 'Republican' AND the circle beside 'Doug Jones'?  I can't find the answer.

snip

I believe Siren actually asked that question a while ago and found out that you can select straight ticket, but if you also fill in the option for a specific Senate candidate, it will count for that candidate.

It's bizarre that they include the straight-party voting option at all when there is literally only one race on the ballot.

There's probably a requirement that it be printed.

[junior chįmp]

Anyone else watch the Jones speech on CNN? Really good stuff; I hadn't heard him speak at length before and he hit all the right buttons. Also made sure to mention that he was "a strong supporter of the 2nd Amendment".

I loled:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Kamala]

Anyone got a link to watch the speech?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

Polling underestimated Democrats by a lot in VA, it could easily happen again in this race. Almost no one predicted that McCaskill would win in a landslide either because the "state was just too Republican", and yet she outperformed her RCP polling average by 10 percentage points. Some posters also dismissed any poll that showed John Bel Edwards up significantly as junk because there was no way a Democrat could win over so many "racist LA hicks" in a special election, how did that turn out again?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Special elections are notoriously difficult to predict/poll, and it is not every day that a Republican candidate is accused of pedophilia. People also like to talk about how "inelastic" AL is, and yet a Democrat came within 3 points of winning in SC-05 (a district I wouldn't really consider that elastic).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not denying that, I was just talking about the supposed "momentum" of Roy Moore in this race, which IMO is basically non-existent.

1.Sure they could be off but this situation is different in that the Republican candidate is actually leading in most of the polls; also polling misses are inherently tricky to predict. Polls underestimated Republicans slightly n GA-6 as an example earlier this year. In Louisiana and I believe Missouri the Democratic party candidate was also consistently in the lead also:
-McCaskill    was the incumbent in Missouri along with the fact Missouri is much more favorable to Democrats then Alabama is statewide.
-As for Louisiana governors races are much less partisan then senate races.

2. SC-05 actually has a recent history of voting for Democrats; it had a Dem. rep from 1883-2011; unlike Alabama where Democrats have not won a statewide race since 2006 and haven't won a senate race since 1992. Also no one is saying Democrats can't come close but actually winning is much harder in a very polarized inelastic state (we have seen the same thing play out in many southern states before actually)

3. I was more emphasizing that Moore regaining a lead was effectively returning this race to the point where it was for much of the fall. If anything Republicans getting more involved in great news for Moore.

[Gass3268]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[gerritcole]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Libs love to throw around buzz words; where does Moore degrade Soros for being of Jewish heritage?

[The Other Castro]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

[riceowl]

Well you see where this is going from 0:06

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/12/05/leave-my-child-out-of-this-cnns-poppy-harlow-admonishes-roy-moore-spokeswoman/?utm_term=.958fdebd987e

[Greedo punched first]

There are now 9 candidates, an unusually high number for Alabama.

Candidates:
Roy Moore (R)
Doug Jones (D)
Mack McBride (I)
Ron Bishop (L)
Eulas Kirtdoll (I)
Mac Watson (R)
Chanda Mills Crutcher (I)
Lee Busby (R)
Jeff Coggin (I)

[InheritTheWind]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Libs love to throw around buzz words; where does Moore degrade Soros for being of Jewish heritage?

Have you ever heard of a "dog whistle?"

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

There are now 9 candidates, an unusually high number for Alabama.

Candidates:
Roy Moore (R)
Doug Jones (D)
Mack McBride (I)
Ron Bishop (L)
Eulas Kirtdoll (I)
Mac Watson (R)
Chanda Mills Crutcher (I)
Lee Busby (R)
Jeff Coggin (I)

Is there a runoff if neither candidate crosses 50%?

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are now 9 candidates, an unusually high number for Alabama.

Candidates:
Roy Moore (R)
Doug Jones (D)
Mack McBride (I)
Ron Bishop (L)
Eulas Kirtdoll (I)
Mac Watson (R)
Chanda Mills Crutcher (I)
Lee Busby (R)
Jeff Coggin (I)

Is there a runoff if neither candidate crosses 50%?

No.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

There are now 9 candidates, an unusually high number for Alabama.

Candidates:
Roy Moore (R)
Doug Jones (D)
Mack McBride (I)
Ron Bishop (L)
Eulas Kirtdoll (I)
Mac Watson (R)
Chanda Mills Crutcher (I)
Lee Busby (R)
Jeff Coggin (I)

Is there a runoff if neither candidate crosses 50%?

No, so hopefully the write-ins take enough support from Moore for Jones to win with ~45% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

I still believe that the % of the write-in votes will be no higher than 1% to 1.5% combined.

Nobody knows these people, they have announced late and get virtually no media coverage (or if they do, no voter cares about them, because everyone is focused on Moore vs. Jones).

[Usili]

I'm waiting any day now for the cops to bust down his door for possession of child pornography and for him to still refuse to drop out while getting booked at the county jail.

FAKE POLICE!! FAKE CHARGES !! RIGGED SYSTEM!!

Doug Jones put those there man....I swear!

No, it was (((Soros))).

Roy Moore goes full anti-Semite:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Libs love to throw around buzz words; where does Moore degrade Soros for being of Jewish heritage?

I'm going to point out that as someone who is Jewish, that is as obvious as a dog-whistle as you are going to get for someone who is an anti-semite.

[Beet]

This race is over. Oh well, at least the Crimson Tide lost the Iron Bowl. God won’t make a choice for the voters but he will intervene in sports. That was His signal the accusers are truthful. Auburn’s loss to Georgia was the signal that Moore will be elected.

[Brittain33]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Madison County = Huntsville = highly educated. Good sign for Jones if it's disproportionately represented.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't feel like futher discussing this would be very fruitful, I'll just reiterate that only a few polls have shown the race outside the margin of error, and Washington Post and Gravis have Jones ahead. MA wasn't considered "elastic" at the senatorial level either before Scott Brown pulled off the upset.

[Pericles]

Indeed Doug has this in the bag.

[RINO Tom]

Kaitlan Collins‏ @kaitlancollins 31 minutes ago
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.

Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins 7 minutes ago
Replying to @kaitlancollins
Officials in Mobile County, the second most populated, tell me they have sent out nearly 2,000 absentee ballots.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/938132179170873349

Madison County = Huntsville = highly educated. Good sign for Jones if it's disproportionately represented.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing that Jones would need support from there to win, but this is a county that voted SOLIDLY for Donald Trump ... "educated county = Democratic county" is ridiculous.