Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[IceSpear]

You guys still have two weeks of this, pace yourselves at least.

I still remember the sh**tstorm that happened here with the Gillespie polls. Good lord.

If anything Jones is the Gillespie here though.

[Kamala]

PC action like this

https://pjmedia.com/faith/archdiocese-washington-sues-transit-authority-rejection-christmas-ad/

cause white Christians to feel under attack and that they are a minority.  They then vote like a minority.  Huge majorities of the minority vote for the same party.  Which now means they vote for the GOP.

That is what is happening in Alabama. As blacks vote Democrat, white Christians are voting GOP

Christ, if white christians in Alabama decide to vote for a pedophile because the Seattle public transportation system rejected a church's ad, then they do deserve the characterization of being immoral hypocrites.

[Ye We Can]

You know what y’all can do with your moral judgements of Moore voters. I just want to scream whatabouts.  I don’t have to lay them out.  Before you go into your neighbors house to insist he clean up his mess, clean up your own first.  You just cannot grasp that concept.

I expect the Senate will investigate whether Moore was lying to the voters of Alabama.  The yearbook will be the center of attention.  The question will then be whether Gloria tried to pull a fast one for publicity. If the yearbook notation is fradulant, Moore is safe.  If it is legit, he is toast.  If it is 1/2 & 1/2, it is anyone’s guess.

Thank Gloria for the current situation.

Sooo your point is limited to whataboutism? Yup, Moore supporters remain terrible people.

[publicunofficial]

Trump's election set the precedent that if you win the women who said you raped them don't matter, so that will be fun to watch.

[Arkansas Yankee]

You know what y’all can do with your moral judgements of Moore voters. I just want to scream whatabouts.  I don’t have to lay them out.  Before you go into your neighbors house to insist he clean up his mess, clean up your own first.  You just cannot grasp that concept.

I expect the Senate will investigate whether Moore was lying to the voters of Alabama.  The yearbook will be the center of attention.  The question will then be whether Gloria tried to pull a fast one for publicity. If the yearbook notation is fradulant, Moore is safe.  If it is legit, he is toast.  If it is 1/2 & 1/2, it is anyone’s guess.

Thank Gloria for the current situation.

What does this even mean? This is a mess of a post, once again.

"Cleaning up our own mess" – what? If you're referring to Franken, nearly every D-avatar on this forum has called for his resignation, and a decent amount of Democrats did too. As for Conyers, I also believe he should resign.

Just because there are sexual harassers in the Democratic Party does not give the Republican Party or Alabama voters carte blanche to elect a pedophile.
 
When you yell "both sides" you don't actually make anything better. You end up justifying the status quo. Guess who loses? The women (and men) who are abused and exploited by these people in power. But who keep getting reelected.  

Stop trying to blame a lawyer for your own hackish beliefs. You should be ashamed of yourself.

I had lunch with a Presbyterian minister today. We live in the Arkansas delta.  So we cannot vote. However he expressed the view that Someone should be foregiven foractions that occurred 40 .years ago with no evidence of similar actions since that time.  I asked if the first 4 women were telling the truth, why his denial was not a lie, that would disqualify him?  He said Moore might have said it under pressure and there was no proof of lying.  He did say if notation in the yearbook was proven to be his, that would be disqualifying.

That is why Gloria’s notebook has become so important.  If you do not understand, I cannot educate you any further. Gloria made it validation issue.

Maybe you can judge someone else morality.  But do you think that wii change anyone’s mind.  Or, does it just give you a sense of superiority to a bunch of hicks.  Does it make you feel good.  Might it not be better to just tell them you think they wrong.  But I guess your jollies are more important.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

You know what y’all can do with your moral judgements of Moore voters. I just want to scream whatabouts.  I don’t have to lay them out.  Before you go into your neighbors house to insist he clean up his mess, clean up your own first.  You just cannot grasp that concept.

I expect the Senate will investigate whether Moore was lying to the voters of Alabama.  The yearbook will be the center of attention.  The question will then be whether Gloria tried to pull a fast one for publicity. If the yearbook notation is fradulant, Moore is safe.  If it is legit, he is toast.  If it is 1/2 & 1/2, it is anyone’s guess.

Thank Gloria for the current situation.

What does this even mean? This is a mess of a post, once again.

"Cleaning up our own mess" – what? If you're referring to Franken, nearly every D-avatar on this forum has called for his resignation, and a decent amount of Democrats did too. As for Conyers, I also believe he should resign.

Just because there are sexual harassers in the Democratic Party does not give the Republican Party or Alabama voters carte blanche to elect a pedophile.
 
When you yell "both sides" you don't actually make anything better. You end up justifying the status quo. Guess who loses? The women (and men) who are abused and exploited by these people in power. But who keep getting reelected.  

Stop trying to blame a lawyer for your own hackish beliefs. You should be ashamed of yourself.

I had lunch with a Presbyterian minister today. We live in the Arkansas delta.  So we cannot vote. However he expressed the view that Someone should be foregiven foractions that occurred 40 .years ago with no evidence of similar actions since that time.  I asked if the first 4 women were telling the truth, why his denial was not a lie, that would disqualify him?  He said Moore might have said it under pressure and there was no proof of lying.  He did say if notation in the yearbook was proven to be his, that would be disqualifying.

That is why Gloria’s notebook has become so important.  If you do not understand, I cannot educate you any further. Gloria made it validation issue.

Maybe you can judge someone else morality.  But do you think that wii change anyone’s mind.  Or, does it just give you a sense of superiority to a bunch of hicks.  Does it make you feel good.  Might it not be better to just tell them you think they wrong.  But I guess your jollies are more important.

Amerikkkan Christianity is all about moral superiority, friend.

[henster]

Part of me thinks Jones pro-choice stance is the sole thing costing him this race, but then I think if it wasn't abortion it'd be another issue people would use as an excuse. Gay marriage, taxes, Hillary, Obama people would look any excuse not to vote for a Dem.

[IceSpear]

You guys still have two weeks of this, pace yourselves at least.

I don't think there's much left to see. Moore will continue to lead in the polls. The usual suspects will unskew. Maybe one or two polls will still show Jones ahead. Atlas will cling to them like a mother to her newborn infant. Moore cracks the 80s on PredictIt. Then he wins. I'm curious what the margin will ultimately be though. I could see anything between a 5 and 15 point win. Were it not for Trump's re endorsement he probably would've been confined to a single digit win, but that has opened the door to double digits once again.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

i am a white christian who went to a school that was only 12% white and 50% black and never in my entire life have i been persecuted for being white, male, or christian

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Part of me thinks Jones pro-choice stance is the sole thing costing him this race, but then I think if it wasn't abortion it'd be another issue people would use as an excuse. Gay marriage, taxes, Hillary, Obama people would look any excuse not to vote for a Dem.

Agree.

[Pericles]

Don't be surprised if the polls underestimate Jones. You people all thought Gillespie would win.

[UncleSam]

Part of me thinks Jones pro-choice stance is the sole thing costing him this race, but then I think if it wasn't abortion it'd be another issue people would use as an excuse. Gay marriage, taxes, Hillary, Obama people would look any excuse not to vote for a Dem.

Abortion is a much more powerful wedge issue though, particularly among religious women. Many of my mom's friends, for example, are not particularly right-wing and actually like a lot of the Democratic party's policies, but view abortion as an ongoing genocide of babies on the level of the holocaust or worst so vote Republican every single time (or at least they say they do).

Sure it's possible that in the absence of this reason there would be a different reason manufactured, but I am inclined to believe when someone says they vote based on one issue and feel very passionately about that issue.

Like sure MOST eventual Moore voters would have voted for him no matter what, but all it takes is one in ten defecting to cause a solid win to turn into a razor thin loss for a polarizing candidate like him. I do think Jones' pro-choice stance will hurt him to the time of at least five points in the final outcome if not more, and will probably be the deciding factor if he does not win.

[IceSpear]

Don't be surprised if the polls underestimate Jones. You people all thought Gillespie would win.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2017/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15957

[Pericles]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

[IceSpear]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

Yeah, Moore would certainly be doomed in Virginia. And in at least 40 other states too. Sadly, this is Alabama.

[The Other Castro]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276155.msg5889394#msg5889394

[Pericles]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

Yeah, Moore would certainly be doomed in Virginia. And in at least 40 other states too. Sadly, this is Alabama.

Point is the Democrats could easily be underrated. People are overcorrecting for a tiny polling error last year.

[Cactus Jack]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

Not to toot my own horn or detract from your point, but I called exactly that.

[Pericles]

Just like maybe one or two people called the Northam landslide, I may well turn out to be one of the few who called the Jones win.

[Arkansas Yankee]

PC action like this

https://pjmedia.com/faith/archdiocese-washington-sues-transit-authority-rejection-christmas-ad/

cause white Christians to feel under attack and that they are a minority.  They then vote like a minority.  Huge majorities of the minority vote for the same party.  Which now means they vote for the GOP.

That is what is happening in Alabama. As blacks vote Democrat, white Christians are voting GOP

Are you dense. This only one of many stupid instances.  It would take me weeks to list.  

Anyways my point is when a group feels itself a minority, the minority voters tend to vote in unison.

[Pericles]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Nobody thought Northam would win by 9 points.

Yeah, Moore would certainly be doomed in Virginia. And in at least 40 other states too. Sadly, this is Alabama.

If it would have been one of the other states, Trump would not have picked a Senator from the State for a
Cabinet seat. I just want to puncture your balloon.

In a general election you are probably right.

[Pericles]

This is Atlas but still.
https://youtu.be/_j2H5Djy-aU

[Cactus Jack]

Remember Nate Silver's rule "When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction." Everyone thinks that there's a bunch of 'shy Moore' voters, even though there's no evidence for this and there never were shy Trump voters. It's also very possible the polls are underrating Jones.

One more thing to consider is that most of the firms that have polled this race have been inconsistent, complete garbage, or both. Fox News has been the only reputable pollster in Alabama for the last month.

In any case, my final verdict on the race is this: I refuse to believe any of the polling, be it in Moore's direction or Jones', and will only buy into the final results. And even if my instinct that Jones will win is proven wrong, IceSpear will still be trash.

[IceSpear]

This is Atlas but still.
https://youtu.be/_j2H5Djy-aU

Yes, Morning Joe pundits are almost always wrong. What have they been saying about the Alabama race?