VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[swf541]

Honestly the most encouraging news I've seen in the past few hours is Fairfax County hitting its 2013 levels.

Arlington and Alexandria breaking 2013 too is also good

@question about new york primary
Bernie would win or get close

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Have heard surprisingly little about SWVA county #'s.

I'd imagine things aren't looking too good down there for Gillespie.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

If Virginia Beach went to Northam tonight that would be sweet.

[BudgieForce]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

They under sampled NYC and showed a tied race between Hillary and Sanders.

[Kamala]

Fairfax turnout must be good for NOVA HoD seats too.

[henster]

If Virginia Beach went to Northam tonight that would be sweet.

I'd LOVE that.

[swf541]

Fairfax turnout must be good for NOVA HoD seats too.

Definitely very interested in seeing those

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Have heard surprisingly little about SWVA county #'s.

I'd imagine things aren't looking too good down there for Gillespie.

I hate to make this kind of comment because a lot of people just make this kind of thing up for the lulz, but I have a friend who lives in Dickinson County and he says his neighbors aren't that enthused for Gillespie.

[Dr. Arch]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

They under sampled NYC and showed a tied race between Hillary and Sanders.

Absolutely not. I cannot imagine how any poll would show Sanders remotely close to winning NYC especially against Hillary Friggen Clinton. She's like the patron saint of New York. They worship her there. Plus New Yorkers wouldn't stomach Sanders' economic policies.

[The Other Castro]

Not sure if this was posted earlier, but in the first wave of VA exits:

"Democrats accounted for 39% of voters in Virginia, vs. 31% Republicans and 29% independents, per preliminary exit polls."

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/928027732000296961

[swf541]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

Over 325k as of 5

@ElectProject
Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go

[DFL]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

They under sampled NYC and showed a tied race between Hillary and Sanders.

If you remove superdelegates and apply a couple of algorithms to the delegate counts Sanders STILL has a chance at winning the primaries!!!

[Dr. Arch]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

Over 325k as of 5

@ElectProject
Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go

Those are actually amazing numbers.

[swf541]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

Over 325k as of 5

@ElectProject
Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go

Those are actually amazing numbers.

Agreed esp with alexandria and arlington also breaking 2013 numbers

[BudgieForce]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

They under sampled NYC and showed a tied race between Hillary and Sanders.

Absolutely not. I cannot imagine how any poll would show Sanders remotely close to winning NYC especially against Hillary Friggen Clinton. She's like the patron saint of New York. They worship her there. Plus New Yorkers wouldn't stomach Sanders' economic policies.

You misunderstand. The exit polls for the state over-sampled Buffalo and Albany where it was somewhat close and under sampled NYC where Hillary performed strongly. Thats why the exit polls showed such a close race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are the actual turnout numbers in NOVA right now?

Over 325k as of 5

@ElectProject
Fairfax County with about 325,000 votes surpasses 2013 votes for gov of 306,430 with 2 hours still to go

Yeah, I will be shell shocked if Northam loses tonight.

[Matty]

How much of the increase is due to population increase?

[swf541]

How much of the increase is due to population increase?

Good question, another issue is the pop decline in swva

That one county from earlier today lost 5% of its pop in the last 4 years

[TheSaint250]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

They under sampled NYC and showed a tied race between Hillary and Sanders.

If you remove superdelegates and apply a couple of algorithms to the delegate counts Sanders STILL has a chance at winning the primaries!!!

"Ralph Northam is the Democratic nominee in VA. Here's how Bernie can still win"

[Hydera]

Not sure if this was posted earlier, but in the first wave of VA exits:

"Democrats accounted for 39% of voters in Virginia, vs. 31% Republicans and 29% independents, per preliminary exit polls."

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/928027732000296961

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html


37% back in 2013, now 39% for dems.


32% back in 2013, now 31% for reps.

31% for independents back in 2013 and now 29%.

[Matty]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

[henster]

NOVA #'s are GREAT, but want to see more on turnout in Richmond & Hampton Roads those are just as crucial. And why is nobody talking about SWVA?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

Yes, but I think Northam is definitely going to outperform McAuliffe

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

Yeah, a 2-3% Northam win is probably the most likely outcome.