VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Kamala]

Prediction: Fairfax total turnout over/under 50%? Over/under 55%? 60%?

[Gass3268]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

As Nate Cohen always like to remind us, whites with no degree are always under sampled in both regular polls and exits.

[henster]

I'm thinking 51-53% range hopefully.

[The Other Castro]

Fairfax County Votes‏ @fairfaxvotes  4m4 minutes ago
5 p.m. estimated voter turnout is 39.1% + estimated absentee at 7.7% = 46.8%. About 90 minutes to get to poll by 7 p.m. Drive safely please!

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/928025871079833600

[fhtagn]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

You can stop lying now. 

I am actually in Fairfax right now and it's still raining.

[swf541]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

You can stop lying now. 

I am actually in Fairfax right now and it's still raining.

Yea the clouds bit is a lie the turnout bit is right though

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

You can stop lying now. 

I am actually in Fairfax right now and it's still raining.

Yeah well turnout is exceeding 2013 and you can't deny that.

[Virginiá]

As Nate Cohen always like to remind us, whites with no degree are always under sampled in both regular polls and exits.

Probably, but it doesn't change the WWC dips in turnout in midterm/off-years vs presidential.

[Ebsy]

Forgive a little artistic license, will you.

[fluffypanther19]

I got an insider that says that Gillespie will win by 15% or more. believe me folks, I got the best insider info with the best polling methods. my guy polled his mom, a homeless dude wacking it in the street, his dirty socks, a dead raccoon rotting in his backyard; all the important focus groups and winners in life. thats why Northam will win by 30%. Why do I know you may ask, because this thread has descended into total trolling, bed-wetting, and hyper stupidity mode, thats why. have a good day folks, ill see you in a couple hours and remember to vote for the peace and unity ticket Trump/Warren 2020. PEACE

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This thread is giving me cancer.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Gillespie will not do as bad with upper income educated repubs as trump did

and Norham won't do as bad with WWC as Hillary lol

I'm really curious about how Northam does in Dickinson County, actually, since it was a traditional Democratic stronghold and it's been getting deeper and deeper red every election.

[Hydera]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html


Compared to 2013, the percentage of white voters went from 72% to 69% but its too early to know if Northam win just because of that.

[fhtagn]

Fairfax County turnout surging as the clouds lift.

You can stop lying now. 

I am actually in Fairfax right now and it's still raining.

Yeah well turnout is exceeding 2013 and you can't deny that.

I wasn't even addressing that.

Just simply pointing out that someone who doesn't even live here shouldn't be making false statements.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fairfax county's turnout is looking very promising for Northam.

[The Other Castro]

Reminder, Fox's experimental exit poll comes out at 6.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fairfax county's turnout is looking very promising fro Northam.

Possibly, but I'd be surprised if Gillespie does as poorly there as Trump did.

[BudgieForce]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

[swf541]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

LOL that was hilarious

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Who do you think feels more confident tonight? Northam or Gillespie?

[McGovernForPrez]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

As Nate Cohen always like to remind us, whites with no degree are always under sampled in both regular polls and exits.

Yeah but they under sampled white college voters both times around so the effect cancels each other out.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly the most encouraging news I've seen in the past few hours is Fairfax County hitting its 2013 levels.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Who do you think feels more confident tonight? Northam or Gillespie?

If I was Northam, I'd be fairly confident right now. but that might change before the night's over.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

[henster]

Have heard surprisingly little about SWVA county #'s.