VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Brittain33]

Those Ben Tribbett tweets are fun to read but I can't let myself believe them.

[BigSkyBob]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

And, I seem to remember an election 52 weeks ago today in which the Democratic candidate had had a bit of bad news which lead to the Republican candidate surging in the polls. Around the final weekend, the polls suggested that the Democratic candidate had stabilized her position with a small, but, significant and persistent lead. The Republican candidate won.

If Gillespie wins tomorrow, some folks are going to be howling at the moon a night early.

Bob, Virginia doesn't have an Electoral College....

The RCP polling average for Virginia, and Michigan was what again???

Uh, 5% Hillary lol plz wipe your butt

Is he insinuating Hillary underperformed in VA because she most certainly did not.

Given Tim Kaine was on the ticket, and, Trump pulled out of Virginia while Romney did not, Hillary Clinton underperformed in Virginia badly.

You can't keep on saying things that are not true as if they were true.

Virginia on Clinton ticket, none on Obama ticket.

Trump pulled out of Virginia.

Romney did not.

Which is untrue?

That Hillary Clinton underperformed in Virginia.

That is objectively false.

"You can't keep on saying things that are not true as if they were true."

But, that simply isn't what I did. I said three new things which you acknowledge were all true.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

How did those RCP averages work out for you folks?

[Hindsight was 2020]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yup Gillespie gonna win. Minorities aren't voting

12% at 9 am is good

[BigSkyBob]

Heavy SW Virginia rain seems to have not materialized. Heavy band in North Carolina. SW Virginia fairly dry. Northern Virginia under heavy rain.

Seems fast moving though. Bummer.

[Holmes]

From Nate Cohn's twitter, the METER is back

Dead heat.

[InheritTheWind]

Massive grain of salt as this guy is a Democratic operative, but:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I feel like I heard the same noise about Florida this time last year from Dem operatives, so I'm going to temper any excitement for a bit.

Edit: Notice that he's followed by Obama and Kaine on Twitter. Helps me put a bit more faith in his word, but still cautious. Am I just shell-shocked from 2016? Probably.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This should sum it up.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[swf541]

Massive grain of salt as this guy is a Democratic operative, but:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I feel like I heard the same noise about Florida this time last year from Dem operatives, so I'm going to temper any excitement for a bit.

According to Daily Kos he is a well known virignia political blogger

[KingSweden]

This should sum it up.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Heh

[Gass3268]

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

[Jeppe]

The 10am check with City of Richmond, Virginia has 17% turnout on average #VirginiaElections #VAGovRace #Election2017 

[Brittain33]

According to Daily Kos he is a well known virignia political blogger

This is accurate, but these people can get excited, too. Looking at this recent tweet—how can he know this? "One other interesting thing- NOVA R base has always been nat security heavy (Pentagon, def contractors, CIA, etc). They dont seem R today."

[Jeppe]

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

[Hindsight was 2020]

According to Daily Kos he is a well known virignia political blogger

This is accurate, but these people can get excited, too. Looking at this recent tweet—how can he know this? "One other interesting thing- NOVA R base has always been nat security heavy (Pentagon, def contractors, CIA, etc). They dont seem R today."

he explained "The reason I say that- those are usually the voters stacked at 6 am in the outer suburbs to vote first and not seen much today"

[Roronoa D. Law]

Not sure if anyone posted this but Dave Wasserman has put out benchmark table. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sqPqFtJl2gxjAUR076E2M8-jpgOOct07FKx08zuP4bM/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0

[Tender Branson]

Didn't follow the VA, NJ etc. races at all so far, but I'd find it extremely shocking if Gillespie wins today.

Or comes even close to winning ...

It's an off-year election with an incumbent President stuck at a 40% approval, or below.

At least in the past 30 years, in such a case, the opposition party has always won in VA and NJ ...

[Jeppe]

Fairfax City voters are turning out to vote today. 3,412 voters before 11 a.m. We are at 29% including absentee. Impressive #ElectionDay 

[Holmes]

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

Seems a bit low?

[Jeppe]

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

Where you getting the rural thing from? I haven't seen any tweets on that

Somebody posted about Bristol, a small 70% Republican southwest Virginia city. Their turnout was half of Fairfax City at 11 am.

[Tender Branson]

Fairfax City voters are turning out to vote today. 3,412 voters before 11 a.m. We are at 29% including absentee. Impressive #ElectionDay 

Turnout in the US is always relative(ly) low compared with much of Europe though ...

By saying "turnout is massive today !", you are probably talking about 45-50% turnout.

In Austria it was 80% a few weeks ago, in Germany 76%.

[Holmes]

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

Seems a bit low?

If a heavily Trump town is lower at 11:15 than heavily Dem Richmond is at 10 am that would be something. Still skeptical it means much.

It could mean something if surrounding SW VA areas have equally bad turnout. Just gotta wait and see.

[Oryxslayer]

Just in case anyone didn't know - Today Ed Gillespie will either get the best or the worst birthday gift imaginable.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Might be early but my prediction is Ed will jump out to an early lead due to rural reporting first leading to some over actions but by 10:30 thanks to NOVA Ralph will win

[Jeppe]

So, from the very little data we have, it seems like turrnout is very high in NoVa, staggering in black areas, and really staggering in rural white areas.

Where you getting the rural thing from? I haven't seen any tweets on that

Somebody posted about Bristol, a small 70% Republican southwest Virginia city. Their turnout was half of Fairfax City at 11 am.

Staggering means overwhelming

It also means unsteady too, but you’re right, bad choice of words.

[Jeppe]

James City County (Williamsburg area) in Virginia had 12.69% turnout @ 9 Next check noon. #Election2017  #VirginiaElections