Nov 7th - MA, OH, PA, GA, ME - Mayor, Referendum, PA Supreme Court ONLY

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

*Please discuss any Mayoral Races/Ballot Measures in VA/NJ/NY/WA on the threads dedicated to those states (NYC thread = NY thread). Please discuss state legislative special election results in the thread specifically for that. *

This is the thread to discuss, predict, and cover the Mayoral Results and Ballot Measures for the five lesser known states holding elections on 11/7 that will be covered by AP(/NYT). This includes the following races:

Boston, MA Mayor
Framingham, MA Mayor
Lawrence, MA Mayor
Newton, MA Mayor
Ohio Ballot Measure 1 - Expand Crime Victim Rights
Ohio Ballot Measure 2 - Cap State Agency Drug Costs
Pennsylvania Ballot Measure 1 - Expand Homestead Tax Exclusion
Allentown, PA Mayor
Erie, PA Mayor
Lancaster, PA Mayor
Scranton, PA Mayor
State College, PA Mayor
York, PA Mayor
PA Supreme Court
Altanta, GA Mayor (Jungle Primary)
Maine Ballot Measure 1 - Allow York Casino Slots
Maine Ballot Measure 2 - Expand Medicaid Eligibility
Maine Ballot Measure 3 - Allow Infrastructure Bonds
Maine Ballot Measure 4 - Stabilize Pension Funding

Results Pages:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/ME_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/GA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/PA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/OH_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/MA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Post any predictions and pre-game discussion here. Results coverage will begin once polls close on the 7th - at 7 ET in GA, 7:30 ET in OH and at 8 ET in MA, PA, and ME.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, really looking forward to some of those races as well.

Do the Republicans have a realistic chance of winning the Maine House District 56 seat? Gina Mason (R) won it by 16 (58-42) in 2016, but given how Democratic-friendly the electorate will be in 2017, I have my doubts.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, really looking forward to some of those as well.

Do the Republicans have a realistic chance to win the Maine House District 56 seat? Gina Mason (R) won it by 16 (58-42) in 2016, but given how Democratic-friendly the electorate will be in 2017, I have my doubts.

Thread for state legislative results is here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264656.600

Ebsy's overview on Page 25 of the thread actually lists the Maine seat as Likely R.

[MAINEiac4434]

Question 2 should pass, the rest are up in the air. A lot of money flowing in from shady sources that are both pro- and anti-1.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thanks for this! Rooting for Bottoms and Jen Jordan for State Senate District 6.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cleveland and Cincinnati are also having Mayoral elections.

The Cleveland mayoral looks like a snooze fest, as the incumbent is cruising toward -- what I believe to be -- and unprecedented 4th term. The Cincinnati mayoral, on the other hand, is being quite bitterly contested between two Democrats, and it seems quite likely the incumbent, John Cranley, will lose.

[Brittain33]

Boston Mayors don't lose reelection, and any chance this race had of being interesting died when Walsh realized he could rally people against Trump and suck up all the oxygen in the room.

[Kevinstat]

Yeah, really looking forward to some of those as well.

Do the Republicans have a realistic chance to win the Maine House District 56 seat? Gina Mason (R) won it by 16 (58-42) in 2016, but given how Democratic-friendly the electorate will be in 2017, I have my doubts.

Thread for state legislative results is here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264656.600

Ebsy's overview on Page 25 of the thread actually lists the Maine seat as Likely R.

The Republicans are running Gina Mason's widower (their son is Senate Majority Leader and a candidate for Governor).  The Democrats are running their 2016 nominee.  Widows almost never lose special elections to replace their late spouses (although the Republicans defeated a Democratic widow in a Sanford districts in November 2015; he had come far closer in 2014 than the Lisbon Democrat had come in 2016 though) and I don't see why it would be any different for widowers.  Lisbon, once a Democratic town, seems to have gone completely to the dark side.  I'd personally rate this race as Safe Republican, although I wouldn't mind being wrong.

[Anna Komnene]

New York has three statewide propositions too in addition to mayoral races and supreme court justices up for election. The big one is the referendum on whether to hold a constitutional convention that happens once every 20 years. It's likely to get voted down because the no campaign has outspent the yes campaign by about 3 - 1.

Prop 2 is about whether public officials convicted of felonies should be stripped of their state pension rights. It's going to pass easily. Prop 3 is about whether to make a land bank for towns to make use of protected land in cases where they need the land for health/infrastructure concerns and then protect other land to make up for the taking. It's probably going to pass but it might be close.

[GlobeSoc]

Will NYT have results for these races, or nah? Also, will they have maps for all of the statewide ballot measures?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Will NYT have results for these races, or nah? Also, will they have maps for all of the statewide ballot measures?

The NYT will have pages for Maine, Ohio, and Georgia. For Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, just use the AP links I posted in the OP.

Re: Maps: The NYT pages don't go live until a few hours before polls close, so we don't yet know what races they'll have maps for.

[Virginiá]

Wulfric: Do you mind if we stuff the Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections in here as well? There is Woodruff (D) vs Mundy (R-Inc.) and Saylor (R) is up for a retention vote. If so could you add it to your list?

[BuckeyeNut]

I hate Issue 1 so much. It makes me livid. And I expect it to pass overwhelmingly.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wulfric: Do you mind if we stuff the Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections in here as well? There is Woodruff (D) vs Mundy (R-Inc.) and Saylor (R) is up for a retention vote. If so could you add it to your list?

Go ahead.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Not that it matters, but Texas is voting for constitutional amendments on Tuesday too

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not that it matters, but Texas is voting for constitutional amendments on Tuesday too

For the sake of not having a gigantic list of races to follow, I kept it to states that have a results page on the AP, and Texas does not.

[Anna Komnene]

I can't find the NY thread (only an NYC thread....) so I'm going to post this here. There could be a major upset brewing in the Syracuse mayoral race.

Siena released a new poll with Ben Walsh, the Independence Party candidate, leading by 2 but within the MoE.

Ben Walsh (Independence) 36%
Juanita Perez Williams (D) 34%
Laura Lavine (R) 7%
Joe Nicoletti (WF) 6%
Howie Hawkins (G) 5%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SyrMay1117_Crosstabs.pdf

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is the independent a conservative?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is the independent a conservative?

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2017/10/ben_walsh_balances_republican_name_democrat.html

He is part of the Walsh dynasty. So probably in a different world, he would be a moderate Republican.

[Anna Komnene]

Pretty much what Yankee said. I'm not sure how to label him really. Interestingly enough, he was going to be the Reform Party candidate (and still is) but he "stole" the Independence line from Lavine by mounting a write-in campaign against her in the primary and winning. That was probably a big moment for him because being able to say he's the "independence" candidate is a lot more convenient than being the reform party candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can tell you that Woodruff will win the court seat.

[Virginiá]

I can tell you that Woodruff will win the court seat.

How come? I'm pretty curious about this seat, but this seems like the kind of election you can't really predict unless the choice is very blatantly lopsided. I'm pretty sure PA judicial races are partisan so that is a plus I guess.

Either way if Democrats can pick up this seat then they should control the PA Supreme Court through 2030, cementing their power over legislative maps for the next generation. Well, assuming everyone sticks around that long, anyhow.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can tell you that Woodruff will win the court seat.

How come? I'm pretty curious about this seat, but this seems like the kind of election you can't really predict unless the choice is very blatantly lopsided. I'm pretty sure PA judicial races are partisan so that is a plus I guess.

Either way if Democrats can pick up this seat then they should control the PA Supreme Court through 2030, cementing their power over legislative maps for the next generation. Well, assuming everyone sticks around that long, anyhow.

Woodruff is a former Steelers player and has been heavily campaigning in Western PA, specifically in Pittsburgh. I know it sounds ridiculous but people are going to vote for him just because he was a Steelers player. My Parents, who both vote republican, voted for him for that reason today. Philly and specifically Pittsburgh will carry him over. I’ve also seen no Mundy campaign signs. She’s been running a very quiet campaign.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT pages are up for OH and ME, links are on the OP of the Virginia thread. There should be a page for GA as well, but it isn't published just yet. Just use the AP links for PA and MA.

For non NYC NY, I will be using the NYC thread to cover those races, and suggest that others do the same.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Any PA posters have any knowledge on the Homestead Exemption vote?

From what little I've read on the subject, the availability of the extended exemption would hinge significantly on the discretion of local bureaucrats which would seem to indicate the not indistinct probability that such a system would be extraordinarily vulnerable to horse trading / corruption.