For States That Got 1 Dem & 1 GOP Senator Each, How Would They Do Head To Head?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just make a prediction for states that have one democrat and one republican in the senate and how they would do in a head to head race. Pretend that each senator is the nominee for the presidency for each race, here is mine:

Nevada:
Cortez-Masto beats Heller 51-45

Montana:
Daines beats Tester 50-45

Colorado:
Bennet beats Gardner 53-42

North Dakota:
Hoeven smashes Heitkamp 56-40

Wisconsin:
Baldwin beats Johnson 49-48

Missouri:
Blunt beats McCaskill 54-43

Indiana:
Young beats Donnelly 52-45

Ohio:
Portman beats Brown 50-46

Pennsylvania:
Casey beats Tumor 51-46

West Virginia:
Manchin beats Capito 52-44 (I am the least confident in this one)

Florida:
Nelson beats Rubio 49-48

Maine:
Collins beats King 56-40

[Strudelcutie4427]

ME: Collins 55-43
PA: Casey 50-48
WV: Capito 49-48
FL: Rubio 51-47
OH: Portman 53-45
IN: Young 56-42
WI: Johnson 48-47
MO: Blunt 55-44
ND: Hoeven 59-39
MT: Daines 53-44
CO: Bennet 51-46
NV: Cortez 49-47

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

While this is true, I still think Bob Casey is still stronger.

[Strudelcutie4427]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

I'm a big fan of Toomey, I just dont know how strong the heir force is since Casey Jr never reallt had a serious race

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

He ran and barely won in two favorable cycles though

In all fairness, so has Casey, granted by much larger margins.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

He ran and barely won in two favorable cycles though

In all fairness, so has Casey, granted by much larger margins.

Katie McGinty and Bob Smith were of roughly equal caliber, and Casey outperformed Obama by a much more impressive margin than Toomey did Trump (in what was already a nailbiter Presidential race)

When did Bob Smith run for Senate in PA?

[Mr. Smith]

ME: Collins 52-46
PA: Toomey 48-48
WV: Manchin 53-46
FL: Nelson 51-47
OH: Portman 53-45
IN: Young 56-42
WI: Johnson 48-47
MO: McCaskill 48-47
ND: Hoeven 59-39
MT: Daines 49-46
CO: Bennet 51-46
NV: Cortez-Masto 49-47

[Kamala]

Hoeven is the one politician who’s more popular than Heitkamp in North Dakota. I don’t see how she’ll win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

[Rjjr77]

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

It'd be a close fight but Portman would probably win.

[Rjjr77]

If we want to continue this... here are the governor vs. Senator of the other party match-ups:

D Hold
North Dakota: 50-50 Heitkamp (D Hold) (Can you say SD-SEN 2002?)
Massachusetts: 57-41 Warren (D Hold), 59-38 Markey (D Hold)
Maryland: 60-36 Van Hollen (D Hold), 59-38 Cardin (D Hold)
New Jersey: 57-39 Menendez (D Hold), 59-37 Booker (D Hold)
New Mexico: 55-45 Heinrich (D Hold), 56-44 Udall (D Hold)
Nevada: 48-47 CCM (D Hold)
Vermont: 65-33 Sanders (D Hold), 61-37 Leahy (D Hold)
New Hampshire: 55-43 Shaheen (D Hold), 53-44 Hassan (D Hold)
Maine: 51-45 King (D Hold)
Michigan: 50-47 Stabenow (D Hold), 51-45 Peters (D Hold)
Illinois: 58-40 Durbin (D Hold), 55-42 Duckworth (D Hold)

D Pick-up
Colorado: 51-45 Hickenlooper (D Pick-up)
Montana: 48-47 Bullock (D Pick-up) (This race will either be a 2000-SEN or a 2012-GOV redux, but Bullock is a stronger candidate than Tester and Daines is a fairly weak incumbent, so I'll give it to Bullock)
Pennsylvania: 50-48 Wolf (D Pick-up)
North Carolina: 49-49 Cooper (D Pick-up)

No idea

Florida: Well, we're about to find out, no?

R Pick-up
Missouri: 52-44 Greitens (R Pick-up)
Indiana: 53-44 Holcomb (R Pick-up)
Ohio: 47-44-7 Kasich (R Pick-up)
West Virginia: 50-45 Justice (R Pick-up)
Wisconsin: 49-48 Walker (R Pick-up)

R Hold
Alaska: 52-43 Sullivan (R Hold)
Louisiana: 52-48 Cassidy (R Hold), 52-48 Kennedy (R Hold)
North Carolina: 50-47 Burr (R Hold)

Kasich would lose to Sherrod. some third party would come in and take 15+% of the vote.

[Kamala]

Hoeven is the one politician who’s more popular than Heitkamp in North Dakota. I don’t see how she’ll win.

You would have seen a sharp decline of his favorability numbers over the course of the GE campaign, and he could easily be portrayed as an opportunistic career politician climbing the political ladder. I think Racicot would have lost to Tester for that reason as well. Burgum would be a stonger candidate than Hoeven IMO.

Uhh... no. Hoeven's experience "career politician" makes him a political institution in North Dakota, and it's really no surprise why he's been elected in landslides in every major election since 2000, when he faced Heitkamp... and beat her by 11 points (the actual election does make me unhappy because Heitkamp lost due to causes beyond her control, but still). Hoeven is popular, inoffensive, and decently moderate for a ND Republican.

I get that you like Heidi, but Hoeven is the one Republican in North Dakota I would bet money on beating her. It would be closer than his usual elections, but I highly doubt Heitkamp would be able to pull it off.

Burgum would be seen as opportunistic since he literally took office 11 months ago.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kasich would lose to Sherrod. some third party would come in and take 15+% of the vote.

Quite possibly, but in this scenario he wins the R primary (which he probably wouldn't IRL), so I assume he would have made up at least some ground.

Not necessarily. A lot of D's are still registered R's from 2016, and assuming this was to take place in '18 -- 1) because that's when Sherrod's up again, and 2) because it's also the next Senate election, period -- they would still be eligible to vote in the Republican primary and could push Kasich over the top.

And while Kasich is a lot less popular then he used to be, him winning a primary over Mandel still wouldn't be that hard.

[IceSpear]

A lot of these would depend on the political environment, so for the purposes of this thread I'll just assume it's neutral.

CO: 49-47 Bennet
FL: 50-48 Nelson
IN: 55-45 Young
ME: 60-40 Collins
MO: 54-46 Blunt
MT: 48-47 Daines
NV: 50-45 Cortez Masto
ND: 59-41 Hoeven
OH: 51-47 Portman
PA: 51-48 Casey
WV: 63-37 Capito
WI: 49-48 Baldwin

[IceSpear]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

[RINO Tom]

Definitely just checked in to see IceSpear's WV prediction, LOL.

[Rjjr77]

Kasich would lose to Sherrod. some third party would come in and take 15+% of the vote.

Quite possibly, but in this scenario he wins the R primary (which he probably wouldn't IRL), so I assume he would have made up at least some ground.

Not necessarily. A lot of D's are still registered R's from 2016, and assuming this was to take place in '18 -- 1) because that's when Sherrod's up again, and 2) because it's also the next Senate election, period -- they would still be eligible to vote in the Republican primary and could push Kasich over the top.

And while Kasich is a lot less popular then he used to be, him winning a primary over Mandel still wouldn't be that hard.

Not with a 4 way primary for governor. I dont see a world where Kasich wins a statewide GOP primary for anything right now.

[IceSpear]

Definitely just checked in to see IceSpear's WV prediction, LOL.

It might be a bit generous to Manchin honestly, considering how popular Capito is. When he gets Blanched in a year by a Republican far less popular than Capito I'll look prescient.

[RINO Tom]

Definitely just checked in to see IceSpear's WV prediction, LOL.

It might be a bit generous to Manchin honestly, considering how popular Capito is. When he gets Blanched in a year by a Republican far less popular than Capito I'll look prescient.

I think Manchin will win re-election and think it's quite evident that a lot of West Virginians have no problem voting for a Democrat, but I do think Capito would beat him in a head-to-head matchup.  She is an exceptionally strong candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

Portman hasn't faced a strong opponent yet.

[IceSpear]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

Portman hasn't faced a strong opponent yet.

Remember back when Strickland was seen as a strong candidate? Lol, good times. But yeah, Brown's margin against Mandel in 2012 was more telling I think. Mandel was a weaker candidate than Strickland (and possibly even Fisher) and still "only" lost by 6 in a good year for Dems.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

Portman hasn't faced a strong opponent yet.

Remember back when Strickland was seen as a strong candidate? Lol, good times. But yeah, Brown's margin against Mandel in 2012 was more telling I think. Mandel was a weaker candidate than Strickland (and possibly even Fisher) and still "only" lost by 6 in a good year for Dems.

2012 was a neutral year and Brown is never going to win by landslides simply b/c it’s Ohio.  Democrats have a lower ceiling and a much lower floor than Republicans.  Also Strickland was seen as a strong candidate b/c 1) no one knew 2016 would be a Republican wave, 2) no one realized yet that he was likely suffering from early dementia, 3) those assessments were partly based on assumptions that Strickland would actually fundraise.  Strickland was an extremely strong candidate on paper, he imploded for unforeseeable reasons.

[krazen1211]

The Republicans would win all races easily except PA and CO.

[Rjjr77]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

Portman hasn't faced a strong opponent yet.

Remember back when Strickland was seen as a strong candidate? Lol, good times. But yeah, Brown's margin against Mandel in 2012 was more telling I think. Mandel was a weaker candidate than Strickland (and possibly even Fisher) and still "only" lost by 6 in a good year for Dems.

2012 was a neutral year and Brown is never going to win by landslides simply b/c it’s Ohio.  Democrats have a lower ceiling and a much lower floor than Republicans.  Also Strickland was seen as a strong candidate b/c 1) no one knew 2016 would be a Republican wave, 2) no one realized yet that he was likely suffering from early dementia, 3) those assessments were partly based on assumptions that Strickland would actually fundraise.  Strickland was an extremely strong candidate on paper, he imploded for unforeseeable reasons.

Strickland fundraised fairly well (over 10 million) Portman is just a fundraising machine. Hes quite a juggernaut with his campaigning style too