Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[DavidB.]

The Austrian government has refused to stand with the UK, the U.S., Australia, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Canada, Poland and a lot of other countries by not expelling one or more Russian diplomats. A coordinated EU response is the best signal, so this is disappointing. One of the clear disadvantages of the FPÖ in government.

This isn't the FPÖ's "fault," per se. The Austrian government's official position is that due to being neutral they won't cut off ties.

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https://www.thelocal.at/20180327/neutral-austria-wont-expel-russian-diplomats

If I were there, I'd want the Russian delegates kicked out, but I can see why they won't.

Nobody is asking them to cut off ties altogether. And countries like Finland and Sweden are also officially neutral and outside NATO, yet they did participate in this action. So this was a conscious political decision, probably influenced by the fact that the pro-Kremlin FPÖ is not only in government but actually controls the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

[TheSaint250]

The Austrian government has refused to stand with the UK, the U.S., Australia, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Canada, Poland and a lot of other countries by not expelling one or more Russian diplomats. A coordinated EU response is the best signal, so this is disappointing. One of the clear disadvantages of the FPÖ in government.

This isn't the FPÖ's "fault," per se. The Austrian government's official position is that due to being neutral they won't cut off ties.

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https://www.thelocal.at/20180327/neutral-austria-wont-expel-russian-diplomats

If I were there, I'd want the Russian delegates kicked out, but I can see why they won't.

Nobody is asking them to cut off ties altogether. And countries like Finland and Sweden are also officially neutral and outside NATO, yet they did participate in this action. So this was a conscious political decision, probably influenced by the fact that the pro-Kremlin FPÖ is not only in government but actually controls the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Ah ok, that does make a little more sense, too. Thanks.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian government has refused to stand with the UK, the U.S., Australia, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Canada, Poland and a lot of other countries by not expelling one or more Russian diplomats. A coordinated EU response is the best signal, so this is disappointing. One of the clear disadvantages of the FPÖ in government.

This isn't the FPÖ's "fault," per se. The Austrian government's official position is that due to being neutral they won't cut off ties.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.thelocal.at/20180327/neutral-austria-wont-expel-russian-diplomats

If I were there, I'd want the Russian delegates kicked out, but I can see why they won't.

Nobody is asking them to cut off ties altogether. And countries like Finland and Sweden are also officially neutral and outside NATO, yet they did participate in this action. So this was a conscious political decision, probably influenced by the fact that the pro-Kremlin FPÖ is not only in government but actually controls the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

That's typical Kurz- or Austrian policy: Trying to please everyone and therefore remaining popular. It doesn't necessarily have a whole lot to do with the FPÖ's pro-Russia position, but more with the general Austrian position of being a bridgebuilder between West and East. A few days ago, Kurz voted with the other EU-leaders to condemn the Russian poison attack, but today (at home) ÖVP-FPÖ say that Austria won't expell any Russian diplomats until the final results of the probe on who was responsible are known. Plus: the Foreign Ministry is not controlled by the FPÖ. Karin Kneissl is an independent, appointed by the FPÖ. And: I don't think another government would do things differently on this issue.

[TheSaint250]

General question: why didn't the right wing form a coalition after the 2013 election? ÖVP, FPÖ, and TS exceeded the majority number. Was Spindelegger not as right-wing?

[Tender Branson]

General question: why didn't the right wing form a coalition after the 2013 election? ÖVP, FPÖ, and TS exceeded the majority number. Was Spindelegger not as right-wing?

It had not much to do with Spindelegger.

It was more the fact that the FPÖ was considered too far-right and extremist and the Team Stronach was seen as unstable (in fact, they collapsed already in the days after the election).

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-Greens 2.0 government was sworn in today in Tyrol during the 1st session of the new state parliament. They have 21 of 36 seats in the new state parliament, but were elected with 23 votes.

Link

And SPÖ-ÖVP have finalized their coalition talks in Carinthia today with a positive outcome. The new government will be sworn in after the Easter holidays. Together, they have 24 of 36 seats.

Link

[TheSaint250]

General question: why didn't the right wing form a coalition after the 2013 election? ÖVP, FPÖ, and TS exceeded the majority number. Was Spindelegger not as right-wing?

It had not much to do with Spindelegger.

It was more the fact that the FPÖ was considered too far-right and extremist and the Team Stronach was seen as unstable (in fact, they collapsed already in the days after the election).

So what changed this time? Was it just Kurz's willingness, or did the FPÖ start getting rid of the bad elements more quickly?

[Tender Branson]

General question: why didn't the right wing form a coalition after the 2013 election? ÖVP, FPÖ, and TS exceeded the majority number. Was Spindelegger not as right-wing?

It had not much to do with Spindelegger.

It was more the fact that the FPÖ was considered too far-right and extremist and the Team Stronach was seen as unstable (in fact, they collapsed already in the days after the election).

So what changed this time? Was it just Kurz's willingness, or did the FPÖ start getting rid of the bad elements more quickly?

A combination of everything: The FPÖ appeared more and more centrist over the past years and that was most obvious with their Presidential candidate Norbert Hofer and a new party platform and election campaign programme that also put the focus on the economy and social issues instead of only focusing on foreigners like in previous election campaigns. They also learned more from past government experiences (2000-2006), which turned out to be chaotic (similar to Trump right now). Then, there was the immigration wave in 2015-16, which made voters more accepting of the FPÖ and the party more mainstream. And then there was Kurz's willingness to enter a coalition with them because A) he supported many of their policies personally and B) because he didn't like Kern and the SPÖ and wanted to end the constant fighting between the parties. And finally, FPÖ/Strache are more eager to kick out plain Nazis or radicals in the party now (with limited success).

[Tender Branson]

Here is a Reuters review of ÖVP-FPÖ's first 100 days in office:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-austria-politics/austrian-far-right-comes-off-worse-after-coalitions-first-100-days-idUKKBN1H42MQ

In short: the ÖVP is undamaged, while the FPÖ has already been damaged somewhat. Still, voters think the government is OK, because the economy is doing fine, the crisis management has been good and there's no infighting between the governing parties like it was the case in the SPÖVP government.

[TheSaint250]

Thanks for the detailed response!

[Tender Branson]

A new Salzburg state election poll by IMAS for the ÖVP:



The Greens still seem way too high ... I'd be surprised if they get more than 10-11% in the end.

[Tender Branson]

Strache (FPÖ) recently said that "the FPÖ is willing to think about a referendum on the smoking ban" if the current anti-smoking/anti-FPÖ petition drive gets more than 900.000 signatures (which is what ÖVP-FPÖ have agreed to in their coalition contract as a threshold for more direct democracy referendums).

After being asked by a reporter, if he meant "a referendum immediately" or "only after a few years", Strache said "immediately".

Currently, the petition drive by the opposition and cancer experts has the signatures of 600.000 people and is growing steadily. The anti-cancer organisation is starting a new push now to reach the 900.000 signatures.

A following referendum would almost certainly turn into a massive backlash against the FPÖ, because 2/3 Austrians support the smoking ban.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/anti-rauch-volksbegehrer-wollen-900000er-grenze-ueberspringen/400014082

The FPÖ could still flip-flop and wind themselves like a snake and try to delay it by a few years of course, but this issue is already starting to be a huge drag on them ...

[Tender Branson]

Ex-Chancellor and SPÖ-leader Kern (who's mother died a few days ago) is strongly attacking ÖVP/FPÖ in this weekend's newspaper interviews while also outlining his own plans and a comeback for 2022:



He likes the fact that all 3 state elections so far have resulted in gains for the SPÖ and will run again for SPÖ-leader in their fall convention, which will also deal with a new party platform on climate change, digital capitalism and injustice among social issues. Kern attacks the ÖVP for underfunding care for the elderly, while at the same time leaving big business untouched. Kern says that workers for business tax checks will be cut over the next years, so that big-business could avoid paying their fair share of taxes and that ÖVP-FPÖ increased the budget for PR and staff in their own ministries. Which is not "saving within the system", but "excessive spending within the system".

On the FPÖ, Kern says that the party is falling apart already and that their base is growing uneasy with Strache's governing. They have flip-flopped and betrayed their voters on all issues that they campaigned on, such as CETA/TTIP (against before the election, now in favour), the 12-hour-work-day (against, now in favour) and swift direct democracy (first in favour, now against). Their latest scandal in the EU-parliament just fits this: they ordered 300 champagne bottles for meetings and dinners worth 400€ per person, paid for by taxpayer money. Kern argues that the FPÖ has betrayed the "small working-class men and women".

On Russia, Kern would act similar to Kurz: While condemning the poison attack, it's also important to keep the channels to Russia open.

He also wants to increase funding for all-day comprehensive schools and that all kids are provided free, healthy meals if they are visiting these all-day schools. In return, he wants to scrap the tax cut that ÖVP-FPÖ recently passed for the tourism industry.

Kern also plans a "progressive alliance" with Macron, by holding a summit in Vienna with other Social Democratic leaders during ÖVP-FPÖ's EU presidency in the 2nd half of 2018.

Kern would also deliver a failing grade for the ÖVP-FPÖ government work right now, which is mostly based on "PR and a lot of talk only".

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kern-Koalition-verprasst-Millionen/328297023

https://derstandard.at/2000076959516/Kern-an-Kurz-Duerftige-Bilanz-nach-100-Tagen-Regierung

https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/eu/5397738/Progressive-Allianz_Kern-will-sich-mit-Macron-verbuenden

Also: the new Carinthia SPÖVP government will be sworn in on April 12.

The SPÖ will get 5 government members, the ÖVP 2.

[Tender Branson]

So... with their first 100 days over, what are ÖVP-FPÖ's main plans for the next 100 days ?

* reforming Austria's healthcare system, by apparently making it more efficient and less bureaucratic. Currently, Austria has a decentralized system with some 20 carriers (which are already pretty effective and run big surpluses every year). But the government wants to create a centralized single-payer system. Heavy resistance is already on the way, especially from the states (every state has their own healthcare carrier) and their governors (opposition also from ÖVP-governors).

* reforming the AMS (Job Agency), also to make it more effective. With their 2018-19 double budget, ÖVP-FPÖ have already significantly cut available spending for the AMS, especially for foreigners and asylum seekers. But considering there are a lot fewer unemployed this year and their base budget will rise, there will actually be more money per client available this year. Also, ÖVP-FPÖ want to restructure unemployment money: more money for those who have paid into the system for a long time already and who become unemployed, while people who just started their job careers (= foreigners and the young) will get less money or the basic minimum only. This will reward the "hard workers" of Austria and will encourage the others to take up jobs more quickly, they argue. Also, ÖVP-FPÖ wants to force especially younger unemployed in Eastern Austria to re-locate to Western Austria were unemployment is low and job offers are available in big numbers.

* ÖVP-FPÖ also want to reform the basic minimum income/welfare system, by cutting down significantly on benefits for foreigners and asylum seekers (they should only get basic welfare of say 300€ per month + housing + medical treatment). In general, less money paid directly to them and only their basic needs covered. The government also wants a uniform welfare system for the country. Currently, all 9 states have their own welfare systems with Vienna being the most generous. This has resulted in Vienna becoming a bloated welfare beast compared with the other states who have tougher restrictions. Vienna has 180.000 welfare recipients for example, compared to 10.000 for Salzburg (Vienna only has 3-times the population of Salzburg). No wonder many asylum seekers have moved to the capital with their more generous welfare payments. This system of course needs to be badly reformed IMO.

* On June 6, the whole Austrian cabinet will fly to Brussels for a joint cabinet meeting there to work our their plans for the Austrian EU presidency in the 2nd half of 2018 (which will focus primarily on security/anti-crime and terrorism measures and border control and how to cut wasteful spending) and Brexit of course.

* On June 13, Chancellor Kurz will meet PM May in London to discuss the future Brexit talks and the Russia controversy.

* On July 3 (and at the start of our EU-Presidency), Chancellor Kurz will deliver a speech to the EU parliament about the topics mentioned above and his plans.

[TheSaint250]

Tender, could you write a little bit about NEOS's core beliefs? I had been under the impression that they seemed to be more economic-liberal than social-liberal, but I am not too sure.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, could you write a little bit about NEOS's core beliefs? I had been under the impression that they seemed to be more economic-liberal than social-liberal, but I am not too sure.

Read more here:

2017 NEOS plans for better opportunities

2017 NEOS election platform

If you run these PDFs through Google Translate, you'll get a pretty good impression of what they want ...

https://partei.neos.eu/neos-english/

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In general, NEOS is "ÖVP-lite".

[Tender Branson]

On April 22, there's also another election (not as interesting as the Salzburg state election, but still worth following):

* the Innsbruck city council and 1st round of the mayoral election

Innsbruck is the capital of Tyrol and has some 135.000 people. They also have an unusually long 6-year term, so the last election was back in 2012.

The current mayor (since 2010) is Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI) and the city coalition originally was FI-Greens-SPÖ, but Oppitz-Plörer also invited the ÖVP to join their coalition later on in 2015.

According to polls, the city council election will be really tight because there are 12 parties running and FI, Greens, SPÖ, FPÖ and ÖVP can all expect somewhere between 15-20% of the vote.

The mayoral election is also expected to be tight with Oppitz-Plörer, the Green Willi and the FPÖ-candidate Federspiel all having chances to win the first round.

SORA poll for the city council:



SORA poll for the mayoral election (1st round):



Innsbruck has always been a Green stronghold (especially among the young => there are many students at the university) and Oppitz-Plörer is a strong critic of the FPÖ.

[Omega21]

Hey Tender, from 0 to 10, how would you rate the current government compared to the old one?

[Tender Branson]

Hey Tender, from 0 to 10, how would you rate the current government compared to the old one?

Current (ÖVP/FPÖ): 8/10

Old one (Kern-SPÖ/ÖVP): 8/10

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer (Infrastructure Minister, FPÖ) and Elisabeth Köstinger (Sustainability Minister, ÖVP) have presented the government's Environment and Climate Strategy for 2030 today:

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https://mission2030.info/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/mission2030_Klima-und-Energiestrategie.pdf

https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/energie/5399585/Energiestrategie_Die-gruene-Seite-von-TuerkisBlau

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ here in Salzburg is getting more and more nervous before the state election:

http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/2018/04/03/fpoe-wo-ist-svazek

I guess a loss compared with 2013 is possible ...

[Tender Branson]

A big surprise today:

The ÖVP state party leader in Carinthia stepped down today (apparently because of "sudden private reasons") !

And this only a week after SPÖ+ÖVP announced they have reached an agreement on a future coalition, after the March 3 state election.

Governor Kaiser (SPÖ) and his party are "shocked" by the news and he said that "he feels not bound any longer to any agreements with the ÖVP" (meaning that even new coalition talks could be likely).

During the coalition talks, it was indeed the ÖVP-leader who said that "he will definitely not step down". But who knows what was the real motive behind his resignation ... maybe it was Chancellor Kurz who was not happy with him and that the party only gained 1% in the state election. Or Kurz wanted the SPÖVP coalition to blow up, because Kaiser would have turned into a really powerful Governor over the next years ...

Anyway, I was kinda surprised that the SPÖ and Kaiser picked the nasty and backstabbing ÖVP as their coalition partner. I would have argued that by picking the smaller Team Carinthia, they would have received a less bitchy partner ...

https://derstandard.at/2000077296637/Nach-Benger-Ruecktritt-droht-Kaiser-der-OeVP-Das-ist-ein

[Tender Branson]

Also, I have received my absentee ballot today for the April 22 state election.

My vote chances are: 60% SPÖ, 25% NEOS, 15% ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Also, I have received my absentee ballot today for the April 22 state election.

My vote chances are: 60% SPÖ, 25% NEOS, 15% ÖVP.

And as I write this, I have found a new poll for the state election (GMK for the Bezirksblätter):

40% ÖVP (+11)
21% SPÖ (-3)
18% FPÖ (+1)
11% Greens (-9)
  6% NEOS (+6)
  2% FPS (+2)
  2% SBG (+2)

https://www.meinbezirk.at/pongau/politik/fuehrung-geklaert-der-rest-bleibt-spannend-d2477622.html

[Tender Branson]

A big surprise today:

The ÖVP state party leader in Carinthia stepped down today (apparently because of "sudden private reasons") !

And this only a week after SPÖ+ÖVP announced they have reached an agreement on a future coalition, after the March 3 state election.

Governor Kaiser (SPÖ) and his party are "shocked" by the news and he said that "he feels not bound any longer to any agreements with the ÖVP" (meaning that even new coalition talks could be likely).

During the coalition talks, it was indeed the ÖVP-leader who said that "he will definitely not step down". But who knows what was the real motive behind his resignation ... maybe it was Chancellor Kurz who was not happy with him and that the party only gained 1% in the state election. Or Kurz wanted the SPÖVP coalition to blow up, because Kaiser would have turned into a really powerful Governor over the next years ...

Anyway, I was kinda surprised that the SPÖ and Kaiser picked the nasty and backstabbing ÖVP as their coalition partner. I would have argued that by picking the smaller Team Carinthia, they would have received a less bitchy partner ...

https://derstandard.at/2000077296637/Nach-Benger-Ruecktritt-droht-Kaiser-der-OeVP-Das-ist-ein

It looks as if the new ÖVP-leader today accepted all 3 demands by the furious SPÖ and the coalition will likely be sworn in after all ... (just with the SPÖ now being even more powerful than before). The SPÖ has set an ultimatum to the ÖVP until 8pm tonight, to agree to their demands or the SPÖ was going to talk with the FPÖ or TK instead.

http://kaernten.orf.at/news/stories/2905206