Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Not only Salzburg-City is still carefully counting their votes, but also Innsbruck (the capital of Tyrol) - which had municipal (mayoral & city council) elections today.

A close race for mayor between FI, Greens and FPÖ was expected.

Full results should be out in the next hour.

[DavidB.]

Annoyed with all the idiots voting for the FPS. Why would you risk it?

[MAINEiac4434]

Annoyed with all the idiots voting for the FPS. Why would you risk it?

Maybe they’re upset with the way FPÖ are performing at the federal level?

[Tender Branson]

Annoyed with all the idiots voting for the FPS. Why would you risk it?

Karl Schnell still has a big voter base here in the Pinzgau (I strongly underestimated him and his chances).

Schnell is also a doctor for more than 40 years who treats patients in Saalbach-Hinterglemm, one of Austria's most famous ski reorts. Naturally, he got his best results in the Glemm-Valley and Pinzgau.

Also, many older FPÖ-voters remember him well and still like him it seems (they didn't vote for him in the federal election because they knew he had no chance).

Also, it seems Schnell attracted many SPÖ-voters as well because his posters focused on "social warmth" and "care for the elderly" (which plays well with older voters).

Still, the 4.5% are wasted votes because of the 5% threshold.

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the map, the ÖVP has won 114/119 cities today, the SPÖ 4, the FPÖ 1.

The capital Salzburg-City also voted for the ÖVP it seems.

http://news.orf.at/wahl/salzburg18/#globus/sbg18/winner

[Tender Branson]

Not only Salzburg-City is still carefully counting their votes, but also Innsbruck (the capital of Tyrol) - which had municipal (mayoral & city council) elections today.

A close race for mayor between FI, Greens and FPÖ was expected.

Full results should be out in the next hour.

Full results are out:

MAYOR

Georg Willi (Grüne) 30,88 % => runoff
Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI-Incumbent) 24,28 % => runoff

Rudi Federspiel (FPÖ) 21,17 %
Franz X. Gruber (ÖVP) 9,12 %
Irene Heisz (SPÖ) 6,98 %
Dagmar Klingler-Newesely (NEOS) 2,63 %
Gerald Depaoli (Gerecht) 2,33 %
Thomas Mayer (Fritz) 2,16 %
Heinrich Stemeseder (Pirat) 0,43 %

CITY COUNCIL:

Grüne – Georg Willi (Grüne): 24,16%
FPÖ – Rudi Federspiel (FPÖ): 18,56 %
Für Innsbruck – Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI): 16,15 %
ÖVP – Franz X. Gruber (ÖVP): 12,17 %
SPÖ – Irene Heisz (SPÖ): 10,32 %
NEOS Innsbruck (NEOS): 4,73%
Liste Fritz (Fritz): 3,23%
Gerechtes Innsbruck (Gerecht): 3,10 %
Tiroler Seniorenbund (TSB): 2,72%
Alternative Liste Innsbruck (ALI): 2,38%
Bürgerinitiativen Innsbruck (BI): 2,08%
Inn-Piraten (Pirat): 0,39%

---

BIG win for the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

SORA "exit poll" for Salzburg:

http://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2018_LTW-Sbg_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

By a 55-37 margin, Salzburg voters today approved of the federal ÖVP-FPÖ government.

ÖVP-voters approve 85-10, FPÖ-voters by 88-8.

SPÖ-voters are opposed by 18-81, Green-voters by 17-82.

[Tender Branson]

Innsbruck seems to be frozen in a 2016-like state of mind:



Greens and FPÖ gain heavily, everyone else lost today.

[jaichind]

The FPÖ plus FPS vote share seems very impressive.  I always figured they would over-perform this election but this level of performance, especially by FPS, is quite surprising.   

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ plus FPS vote share seems very impressive.  I always figured they would over-perform this election but this level of performance, especially by FPS, is quite surprising.   

True, it's impressive.

But I thought they would do badly today. I thought the SPÖ would be on the upswing and that they finally got their act together after all the nice state election results recently. And then this.

[DavidB.]

So I guess Stronach's voters mostly went to the ÖVP (and, less so, FPÖ/FPS and perhaps even NEOS), while the SPÖ gained votes from the Greens but lost them to ÖVP and NEOS, and NEOS won votes from the Greens, the SPÖ and Stronach, probably in that order. What % of the NEOS votes would you expect to come from which parties?

[Tender Branson]

So I guess Stronach's voters mostly went to the ÖVP (and, less so, FPÖ/FPS and perhaps even NEOS), while the SPÖ gained votes from the Greens but lost them to ÖVP and NEOS, and NEOS won votes from the Greens, the SPÖ and Stronach, probably in that order. What % of the NEOS votes would you expect to come from which parties?

Here is the actual voter stream analysis (election 2013 vs. election 2018):

http://news.orf.at/wahl/salzburg18/#migration/ltw13

Looks like former TS voters mostly went to the FPÖ this time and into the non-voter camp.

The SPÖ gained a bit from the Greens, but lost many to the ÖVP and to non-voters.

NEOS gained many former Greens.

[Tender Branson]

The state is now fully counted and an end result has been released:



There are some 500-800 postal votes to be counted on Wednesday (those that were cast in a precinct other than the own).

Turnout was a low 65% (as expected, because the outcome was certain and 85% of voters are happy with how things are going in the state).

[Tender Branson]

I'm still trying to fully understand why the SPÖ crashed and burned so badly today, instead of gaining.

I have come up with 2 major reasons for that:

* looking at the voter streams, it seems the SPÖ lost many voters to the ÖVP today. Why is that ? I think many retired voters (a typical SPÖ-constituency) still remember the 2013 gaffe from SPÖ-leader Steidl very well: "I can't make a living with only 8.000€ per month. I need 4.000€ more." (the SPÖ then granted him a 3.000€ raise or something). A typical retired SPÖ-voter earns a pension of just 1.200€ a month though. Might have been a reason, because today some 60% of retired voters opted for the ÖVP.

* another reason might be the fact that Salzburg is now the wealthiest state in Austria, having the highest GDP per capita and the lowest unemployment rate. The SPÖ does well with the unemployed and generally in regions that are economically behind (such as Carinthia or parts of Vienna).

[Tender Branson]

As for coalitions, I'm hoping for an ÖVP-SPÖ or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government.

ÖVP-FPÖ is not needed, because of the federal government.

Astrid Rössler, the Green leader and Vice-Governor, has offered her resignation to the party leadership (which is understandable if you drop from 20% to 9.5%), but it's not really her fault that the party dropped back so hard. 2013 was a real outlier election and the Greens just dropped back to their normal level. If Rössler indeed steps down, I could see Martina Berthold as the new leader.

[Tender Branson]

Updated my Wiki page with all the results + maps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_state_election,_2018

[TheSaint250]

Updated my Wiki page with all the results + maps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_state_election,_2018

I just moved the FPÖ into the third spot.

Thanks again!

[Tender Branson]

Updated my Wiki page with all the results + maps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_state_election,_2018

I just moved the FPÖ into the third spot.

Thanks again!

Ah yeah, I missed that.

Anyway, thanks for following the election, guys.

It was a cool, but surprising day. Now I need some sleep.

[Tender Branson]

With the important Salzburg state election over, the federal ÖVP-FPÖ government (which got strong approval by voters yesterday), will now apparently focus on the more "nasty" and "controversial" policy areas.



Considering there are no major elections until 2020, this is the right time for them (the Vorarlberg state election is next year, as is the EU election, but those are not considered bellwethers: the former not, because it is a strong ÖVP-state and the latter not because EU elections are for posts far away with low turnout).

ÖVP-FPÖ will now focus on such things as reforming and streamlining welfare (especially for foreigners => lower payments and tougher requirements). Currently, each state has their own welfare system, which creates welfare tourism (see Vienna as an extreme example).

Other measures include merging and eliminating certain healthcare carriers, so that in the end just 5 decentralized ones of them remain (compared with the current 20).

The 3rd major issue will be reforming unemployment money, to make work more attractive again: more unemployment money for those who have paid into the system for a long time and better training courses, while those who have never paid much into the system so far (= foreigners, the young) will get just a basic amount and gradually lower payments over time (so that they are not making themselves comfortable in the social welfare hammock).

https://derstandard.at/2000078425721/Tuerkis-Blau-kann-Wahlpause-fuer-heikle-Reformen-nuetzen

[Tender Branson]

Here in Salzburg, Governor Haslauer (ÖVP) has said he wants to start coalition talks "within the next 10 days".

He could invite either the SPÖ, the FPÖ or Greens+NEOS for intensive talks. All of them are interested, especially NEOS (which would be their first state government participation ever).

According to the SORA/ORF election day analysis, ÖVP-voters by far favour a coalition with the FPÖ and FPÖ-voters do so with more than 80% vice-versa. But Gov. Haslauer has strong reservations about working together with the FPÖ, calling them too radical and undisciplined many times.

[Tender Branson]

Johann Gudenus (FPÖ), son of the late Holocaust-denier John Gudenus and the FPÖ's current parliamentary club leader, created controversy over the weekend when he supported Orban's arguments on Soros meddling in Hungary and enabling and supporting mass immigration:

https://derstandard.at/Gudenus-springt-auf-Orbans-Anti-Soros-Kampagne-auf

For these comments, he received strong attacks from SPÖ, NEOS, LiPi, Greens and even from within the ÖVP:

Martin Engelberg, a Jewish MP for the ÖVP in parliament, said "it would have been better if Gudenus shut up on this topic, rather than spreading anti-semitic conspiracy theories and meddling in issues that are not the Austrian government's official policy and involve other countries."

https://derstandard.at/2000078447653/OeVP-Abgeordnete-Engelberg-Waere-besser-gewesen-Gudenus-haette-geschwiegen

[DavidB.]

It is unfortunate that "Soros" is indeed a huge dogwhistle and that the Hungarian government clearly uses him like that as well, but judging by the article in Der Standard, nothing what Gudenus said was actually untrue. The Open Society Foundation does appear to support and promote mass immigration. Not every criticism of Soros and the OSF is antisemitic (though it is very difficult to tell where the line is), and I think what Gudenus said falls well within acceptable boundaries.

It is also curious for this ÖVP MP to suggest that an MP not voice his own opinions, but instead slavishly follow the government in everything. Dualism, anyone?

[Tender Branson]

After losing more than half of their support yesterday, Green Party leader Astrid Rössler announced her resignation today. First, the Green Party leadership tried to convince her to move on as leader - but her decision was clear and they accepted it. Rössler still agreed to lead the first talks with the ÖVP (if invited) because of her experience, but will hand the party leadership over to someone else before the summer.

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2908723

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP was meeting yesterday evening and announced first exploratory talks with the SPÖ in the morning, followed by the FPÖ in the afternoon.

Talks will continue tomorrow morning with the Greens and NEOS in the afternoon.

Early next week, the ÖVP will announce who they are starting in-depth coalition talks with.

Gov. Haslauer wants to have a new government in place by the end of May and the new state parliament will convene no later than June 13.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/salzburgwahl2018/VP-Chef-Haslauer-startet-erste-Gespraeche/331079544

As a result of the Salzburg state election, the Greens also lost another seat in the federal Bundesrat, the 2nd chamber of parliament - representing the states.

The new composition there after all 4 state elections (61 in total):

22 ÖVP, 21 SPÖ, 16 FPÖ, 2 Greens

[Tender Branson]

The "Kurier" reports that the SPÖ-Green government in Vienna is badly damaged and showing signs of deep cracks:

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/mit-ludwig-wird-das-klima-in-der-koalition-wieder-rauer/400025668

The incoming new mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) - who will take over from long-time mayor Michael Häupl in roughly a month - apparently wants to get rid of the Greens as coalition partner as soon as possible.

Recently, it was announced that the Ludwig-led government will introduce an alcohol ban at one of Vienna's biggest drug and crime hotspots, the Praterstern, which regularly sees knife-fights, heavy injuries and drug-dealing by foreigners and alcohol-related excesses (also by Austrians). The Greens have attacked Ludwig's plans as "populist" and "FPÖ-lite" to win back some of their voters.

Ludwig, unlike the current mayor Häupl, has no real concerns about embracing a more FPÖ-like policy (but has so far ruled out a coalition with them after the next election, due in 2020).

But carrying on with the disintegrating Greens could also be pretty nasty for Ludwig, so he might call a snap election next year. An election this fall already is unlikely, because it takes some time to achieve a certain "incumbency bonus".