MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[SCNCmod]

Why doesn't Espy just agree to debate McDaniel?  It would elevate McDaniel's profile... and could potentially give McDaniel's a chance to edge out Hyde-Smith. Could be a win-win for Espy & McDaniel.

[OneJ]

According to polls- Espy would have at least an even shot against McDaniel in a run-off.

The last poll taken was in September and McDaniel was only 5% behind Hyde-Smith. (Espy: 25, Hyde-Smith: 24, McDaniel 19).  Is there any chance something like this video could motive McDaniel supporters to turn-out in large enough number to eek ahead of Hyde-Smith (especially is Hyde-Smith was dinged a little by the tape)?

That very last poll was conducted by SurveyMonkey, which isn't a very good pollster by any means (it was rated a D- from 538). I would take it with a grain of salt. Especially considering how far he's been behind Hyde-Smith all of this time.

Why doesn't Espy just agree to debate McDaniel?  It would elevate McDaniel's profile... and could potentially give McDaniel's a chance to edge out Hyde-Smith. Could be a win-win for Espy & McDaniel.

You know, that's actually a good idea. Beats me. I guess Espy just wants to take the "high road".

[Del Tachi]

You know, I've really been disappointed in CHS' campaign and I don't like the idea of Gov. Bryant being able to "pick" our senator for what is probably the next 20-30 years.

So, I've decided that I will either be voting for Espy or McDaniel.  Espy is definitely closer to me ideologically and while I don't support McDaniel at all, a vote for him would be much more detrimental to CHS' chances of winning.

I wish Jason Shelton would have stayed-in.  I would definitely be supporting him and I know a lot of moderate Republicans who would be as well.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

You know, I've really been disappointed in CHS' campaign and I don't like the idea of Gov. Bryant being able to "pick" our senator for what is probably the next 20-30 years.

So, I've decided that I will either be voting for Espy or McDaniel.  Espy is definitely closer to me ideologically and while I don't support McDaniel at all, a vote for him would be much more detrimental to CHS' chances of winning.

I'd encourage McDaniel primary and Espy runoff, personally.

[SCNCmod]

Now Hyde-Smith is lying saying ... she knew all along she was being secretly recorded- she suspected it from the moment the person (or people?) walked in- and that she doesn't care if anyone know what she is thinking/ something like she is honest and an open book or something?

Hyde-Smith should at least not make a comment... or agree to debate. But don't lie about the whole thing & then come up with a new excuse of why you can't debate--> because she just planned a bus tour around the state that she will be tied up with until election day.

Even if some people think McDaniel is nuts- I would rather him win than Hyde-Smith...if she is anything like her actions of late (surrounding the Debate/secret video/ subsequent excuses and lies) are making her look.  And she has voting 100% with Trump- so how could McDaniel be any more detrimental to Dems?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You know, I've really been disappointed in CHS' campaign and I don't like the idea of Gov. Bryant being able to "pick" our senator for what is probably the next 20-30 years.

So, I've decided that I will either be voting for Espy or McDaniel.  Espy is definitely closer to me ideologically and while I don't support McDaniel at all, a vote for him would be much more detrimental to CHS' chances of winning.

I'd encourage McDaniel primary and Espy runoff, personally.

[KingSweden]

You know, I've really been disappointed in CHS' campaign and I don't like the idea of Gov. Bryant being able to "pick" our senator for what is probably the next 20-30 years.

So, I've decided that I will either be voting for Espy or McDaniel.  Espy is definitely closer to me ideologically and while I don't support McDaniel at all, a vote for him would be much more detrimental to CHS' chances of winning.

I wish Jason Shelton would have stayed-in.  I would definitely be supporting him and I know a lot of moderate Republicans who would be as well.

Better yet - if Brandon Presley had run

[7,052,770]

I myself am considering voting McDaniel on 11/6 because I am tired of Cindy and all her BS. Calling 1,000,000+ of her constituents "evil" for opposing the Kavanaugh nomination was way over the line.

Even if McDaniel won the runoff, he's likely primaried out in 2020 or may lose to a stronger Democratic candidate in the 2020 general, and I don't see any noticeable difference in McDaniel and Hyde-Smith in their voting records over the next 2 years.

If I see there's even the fainest hope of Espy getting 50% on 11/6, I'll obviously back him, but if the entire contest is to see which Republican makes the runoff, it's tempting to vote for the one I'd rather have in the Senate, if forced to choose.

[gespb19]

Anyone following this guy's feed? Johns Hopkins PhD candidate (originally from MS) convinced we're headed for an Espy/McDaniel runoff based on Google trends, GOTV, and enthusiasm.

https://twitter.com/Yoknapatawpha86/status/1052768200344199169

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Anyone following this guy's feed? Johns Hopkins PhD candidate (originally from MS) convinced we're headed for an Espy/McDaniel runoff based on Google trends, GOTV, and enthusiasm.

https://twitter.com/Yoknapatawpha86/status/1052768200344199169

That would be Lean D.

[TarHeelDem]

I'd really love to see some polling here. But no, let's have yet another Nevada poll because UTDH.

[IceSpear]

Anyone following this guy's feed? Johns Hopkins PhD candidate (originally from MS) convinced we're headed for an Espy/McDaniel runoff based on Google trends, GOTV, and enthusiasm.

https://twitter.com/Yoknapatawpha86/status/1052768200344199169

I'm pretty sure "Google Trends forecasting" has failed miserably every single time it is tried.

[Mr. Smith]

It'd be hilarious if it came to that after two of Beto/Bredesen/Rosen/Sinema don't quite make it, all while Heitkamp still loses.

Or if Beto and Bredesen do make it, but McCaskill (or one of Rosen/Sinema don't make it) joins Heitkamp.

Crazy yes, but so was the idea of Kander or Hassan outperforming Feingold once too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'd encourage all the dems to vote for McDaniel in the jungle.

[7,052,770]

I'd encourage all the dems to vote for McDaniel in the jungle.

It's definitely something to consider. As long as Cindy is playing the "I'm 100% Trump and everyone who disagrees is evil" card, I don't know that he's any worse.

And if he did beat Espy in the runoff, he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2020 or a general election challenge if the MS Democratic Party can find their own Beto.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'd encourage all the dems to vote for McDaniel in the jungle.

It's definitely something to consider. As long as Cindy is playing the "I'm 100% Trump and everyone who disagrees is evil" card, I don't know that he's any worse.

And if he did beat Espy in the runoff, he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2020 or a general election challenge if the MS Democratic Party can find their own Beto.

Pressley, and if not then Hood. Might as well make some use of him after he loses to Tate Reeves next year.

[7,052,770]

Anyone following this guy's feed? Johns Hopkins PhD candidate (originally from MS) convinced we're headed for an Espy/McDaniel runoff based on Google trends, GOTV, and enthusiasm.

https://twitter.com/Yoknapatawpha86/status/1052768200344199169

Imagine how embarrassing it would be for Phil Bryant if the voters reject his chosen Senate candidate like that. Especially after, like, every single pundit and insider in the state (and the White House too) told him, either publicly or privately, that Cindy was a bad choice.

[gespb19]

My projection for tomorrow: Espy 37, Hyde-Smith 35, McDaniel 25, Bartee/write-in 3



dark red: Espy 50%+
red: Espy 40-50%
light red: Espy under 40%

dark blue: Hyde-Smith 50%+
blue: Hyde-Smith 40-50%
light blue: Hyde-Smith under 40%

dark orange/brown: McDaniel 50%+
orange/brown: McDaniel 40-50%
light orange/brown: McDaniel under 40%

Best counties for each candidate

Espy: 1) Jefferson, 2) Claiborne, 3) Holmes
Hyde-Smith: 1) Lincoln, 2) Itawamba, 3) Tishomingo
McDaniel: 1) Jones, 2) George, 3) Pearl River

[OneJ]

Looks reasonable to me.

[Pollster]

I believe many pundits/observers are missing the very possible scenario that this runoff could decide control of the Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe many pundits/observers are missing the very possible scenario that this runoff could decide control of the Senate.

I've seen several of them mention it.  Just today:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1059578951843094528

[Progressive Pessimist]

I believe many pundits/observers are missing the very possible scenario that this runoff could decide control of the Senate.

I've seen several of them mention it.  Just today:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1059578951843094528

Espy vs. McDaniel would be the cherry on top of what would almost have to be a fantastic night for Democrats. I don't think Espy is guaranteed to beat him, but the fact that there's a chance of Mississippi electing a Democrat is good enough for me.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Chris McDaniel vs Mike Espy would be Lean/Likely D.

[Oryxslayer]

Chris McDaniel vs Mike Espy would be Lean/Likely D.

You really think GOPers wouldn't consolidate if the Senate was on the line?

[RI]

I'm not convinced MS would vote for a Dem, especially not a black Dem, barring a Roy Moore situation. MS is extremely inelastic.