MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[MarkD]

Anybody else think that Espy’s strength in the jungle primary and runoff might be underrated? He’s going to have a lot of African-American support in the primary even if Presley enters, and the optics of a McDaniel v. Espy runoff would pump up turnout.

MS isn't electing a black man statewide.

Espy would need something like only 20% of white voters with strong black turnout.

Exactly that. And both of those things are very likely when the most apparent GOP nominee is an out-and-out Neo-Confederate.

[McGovernForPrez]

If Presley runs and maybe Epsy mover over to the other race, I could see this being lean Republican against McDaniels. Easy running is important because he can boost black turnout while Pressley focuses on rallying rural white support.

[Doimper]

If Presley runs and maybe Epsy mover over to the other race, I could see this being lean Republican against McDaniels. Easy running is important because he can boost black turnout while Pressley focuses on rallying rural white support.

Espy can't run against Wicker, the filing deadline has passed. I agree that a Espy vs. Wicker and Presley vs. McDaniel scenario would've been best for Democrats, though.

[Badger]

Presley has shown he can win deep-red areas, and is also sitting in an office that serves a large chunk of Mississippi.

Don't forget, there's a HUGE difference e running and winning races for relatively non partisan offices like Public Service Board (right?), and U.S. Senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Espy is a C-list candidate at best (really D-list because he's such a nasty and notoriously corrupt individual).  The only way this could be competitive is McDaniel vs. Presley.

[Ye We Can]

Presley has shown he can win deep-red areas, and is also sitting in an office that serves a large chunk of Mississippi.

Don't forget, there's a HUGE difference e running and winning races for relatively non partisan offices like Public Service Board (right?), and U.S. Senate.

That's fair enough-but remember special elections in Mississippi are also non partisan.

[Cactus Jack]

Espy is a C-list candidate at best (really D-list because he's such a nasty and notoriously corrupt individual).  The only way this could be competitive is McDaniel vs. Presley.

Espy was exonerated of all wrongdoing in the corruption charges against him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Espy is a C-list candidate at best (really D-list because he's such a nasty and notoriously corrupt individual).  The only way this could be competitive is McDaniel vs. Presley.

Espy was exonerated of all wrongdoing in the corruption charges against him.

No, they couldn’t prove beyond reasonable doubt that he was guilty.  There’s a big difference.

[7,052,770]

A college professor of mine said back in 2007 that Espy is the only African-American who could have plausibly won a statewide election in Mississippi, but that he'd probably missed his window by 2007. 11 years later, does the electorate even remember who he is?

There were also rumors about 10 years ago that he might switch parties. He endorsed Barbour for reelection in 2007 and apparently really wanted to be appointed to Trent Lott's seat, but I haven't heard anyone referring to him as anything other than a Democrat for this race.

[OneJ]

A college professor of mine said back in 2007 that Espy is the only African-American who could have plausibly won a statewide election in Mississippi, but that he'd probably missed his window by 2007. 11 years later, does the electorate even remember who he is?

There were also rumors about 10 years ago that he might switch parties. He endorsed Barbour for reelection in 2007 and apparently really wanted to be appointed to Trent Lott's seat, but I haven't heard anyone referring to him as anything other than a Democrat for this race.

Well if it counts, my mother does and I'll say it's very likely she'll vote for Espy too. But other than some older and middle-aged black voters I doubt that he's remembered by many from back in the day.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy got a lot of white voters to vote for him back in the day (after he was already an incumbent), but he hasn't really been a notable figure in politics for about 20 years. Most people won't remember the great service he did for the agricultural community in Mississippi. The reactionary people will not give Espy much of a chance when they hear the corruption charges, even though he was acquitted.

Now, given how polarized Mississippi is, I'm not sure Espy can get much more than 15% of the white vote, even vs a controversial asshole like McDaniels. He's going to probably need at least 18% of the white vote even if there is a huge difference between black turnout and white.

He's definitely better than a generic D in Mississippi, but Jim Hood and Brandon Presley are stronger candidates. I'm not sure either could beat Espy in a primary, though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely R now.

[Canis]

Has the filing deadline passed? when will it be?

[OneJ]

Has the filing deadline passed? when will it be?

Yep. It was on March 1st.

[Blair]

Is there any news on Presley?

[edtorres04]

Is there any news on Presley?

Presley is likely going to run for Sec of State:

http://yallpolitics.com/2018/03/12/breaking-inside-sources-say-psc-brandon-presley-considering-run-for-ms-secretary-of-state-in-2019/

[YE]

Is Presley waiting for MS to become a blue state in say 2030 to run for a non-row office or something?  Otherwise, not sure why he isn't jumping into the Senate race.

[BuckeyeNut]

Is there any news on Presley?

Presley is likely going to run for Sec of State:

http://yallpolitics.com/2018/03/12/breaking-inside-sources-say-psc-brandon-presley-considering-run-for-ms-secretary-of-state-in-2019/

You know what, I'll take it. If Pressley wins and can break down the barriers to voting in MS that institutionally obstruct POC and the poor from voting, we can make MS damn near purple.

EDIT: The question is if Hood runs for Gov. and Pressley runs for SOS, who can we credibly field to hold the AG's office? We might as well go for a full court press if we're risking the offices of two of our best Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

Is there any news on Presley?

Presley is likely going to run for Sec of State:

http://yallpolitics.com/2018/03/12/breaking-inside-sources-say-psc-brandon-presley-considering-run-for-ms-secretary-of-state-in-2019/

You know what, I'll take it. If Pressley wins and can break down the barriers to voting in MS that institutionally obstruct POC and the poor from voting, we can make MS damn near purple.

EDIT: The question is if Hood runs for Gov. and Pressley runs for SOS, who can we credibly field to hold the AG's office? We might as well go for a full court press if we're risking the offices of two of our best Democrats.

Y’all Politics had a good rundown a while back. Several DA’s in very red territory to choose from.

Excellent.

[I’m not Stu]

Mississippi's next Senator will likely be Cindy Hyde-Smith or Delbert Hosemann.

[The Other Castro]

Mississippi's next Senator will likely be Cindy Hyde-Smith or Delbert Hosemann.

So, probably Hosemann.

[I’m not Stu]

Would McDaniel make the runoff against Hosemann?

[I’m not Stu]

Who would win a Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel runoff?

[The Arizonan]

Are we going to find out who the replacement is within a few days or are we going to wait until April 1 or close to it?

[Del Tachi]

Both great choices.  Hosemann is very statesmanlike and has great campaign infrastructure/fundraising ability.  He's very visible and well-liked across the states.  While Cindy Hyde-Smith is not as well known, she can rev up the ag community and cut into McDaniel's south Mississippi base.

I'd pick Hosemann, just because I'd call him favored over McDaniel.  I'd take the hit in potential seniority in order to avoid having a Senator McDaniel.