MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[I’m not Stu]

I tried putting it on Wikipedia, but the poll was removed for supposedly being fake.

[Sestak]

Take note:

PA-18: D+11
MS-AL: D+9

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/HindsPolling/status/973710497450201088

Btw, it's a google survey. Ugh...

For the lazy, here's some interesting stuff (not the whole poll though):

Trump Job Approval:
46% Approve
52% Disapprove

Who would you vote for if these were the candidates?:
Presley: 42%
McDaniel: 39%

Who would you vote for if these were the candidates?:
Hood: 41%
McDaniel: 41%

Who do you plan to vote for in the Senate General Election for the regular election?
Wicker: 53%
Baria: 42%

Would you rather Democrats or Republicans to control congress this year?
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

What party do you plan to vote for in the House of Representatives this year?
Democrats: 48%
Republicans: 49%

60%-36% voted for Trump in 2016, but in 2012 they claim to have voted for Romney 51%-47%

What race do you identify with?
Black: 36%
White: 61%

[Usili]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[KingSweden]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My shocked face

[Hindsight was 2020]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Save us Bradon Presley. You're our only hope

[I’m not Stu]

If the runoff is R vs. R, I think the appointed incumbent beats McDaniel.

[Del Tachi]

I'm interested in seeing how McDaniel will portray such blatant opportunism to the electorate.

He's was being pretty tough on Wicker, but he's now suddenly uninterested in taking him out because there's opened up an easier path to the Senate?  I think the people of Mississippi are smarter than that  

[Del Tachi]

If the runoff is R vs. R, I think the appointed incumbent beats McDaniel.

Best chance of that is if no other Democrats jump into the special, its hard to see the DSCC letting that happen.

[Landslide Lyndon]

 I think the people of Mississippi are smarter than that  

[Alabama_Indy10]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please somebody run against this guy.

[Alabama_Indy10]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please somebody run against this guy.

I hope Baria switches here

Either that or another Republican enter the race.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please somebody run against this guy.

I hope Baria switches here

Either that or another Republican enter the race.

The governor is going to appoint a Republican into the seat, but there is a very good chance that McDaniels is able to beat whatever Republican is appointed in a primary.

[Sestak]

And there we go!

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/974028345527685121

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please somebody run against this guy.

I hope Baria switches here

Either that or another Republican enter the race.

The governor is going to appoint a Republican into the seat, but there is a very good chance that McDaniels is able to beat whatever Republican is appointed in a primary.

Primary is top two blanket nonpartisan, so it depends on the Dem(s) as well.

[Del Tachi]

I think the people of Mississippi are smarter than that 

I mean, MS Republicans didn't nominate Chris McDaniel when he had a lot less baggage...I think we're safe here too.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Pressley doesn't run, I think Espy would be solid against McDaniel, he's giving me Doug Jones vibes.

*clapping* Doug Jones didn't win, Roy Moore lost

And Ralph Northam didn't win, Ed Gillespie lost. And tomorrow it won't be Conor Lamb who would have wom but Rick Saccone who would have lost.
Democrats never win, it's the Republicans who lose.

You're delusional if you don't believe Roy Moore was the reason that seat was lost. It was 100% him. Literally ANY other Republican would have won easily.

But the point is that Roy Moore would have won against a weaker candidate than Doug Jones.

Well yeah. I definitely agree with that.

So it's ridiculous to say that Jones's victory had nothing to do with Jones. Or that a candidate being similar to Doug Jones wouldn't be good news for that person's chances.

Jones was a great candidate. That doesn’t change the fact that a normal Republican (Luther Strange) would have beat him.

I think the argument is that Espy would be a good candidate in case the Republicans nominate another Roy Moore type. It's like, we probably can't bake a cake but we at least might have one ingredient.

1. Even McDaniel isn't a Roy Moore (no known "sexual harrasment" accusations).
2. Espy is far less "a great candidate", then Jones was, with it's own "skeletons".

At this point, I would not be surprised at all.

[7,052,770]

Here's a map I put together of what a super competitive 4-way race might look like. This assumes that all 4 candidates are taken seriously, and that the national environment and/or personal qualities allow for the Democratic candidates to perform very well.

This is just for fun - I didn't spend all that much time on it. I fed some numbers from recent elections into a spreadsheet, and this is what came out. I didn't closely check the results, so I don't doubt there are oddities/improbabilities.

[I’m not Stu]

Bryan Fischer endorses McDaniel again. Not surprising.

[Del Tachi]

Here's a map I put together of what a super competitive 4-way race might look like. This assumes that all 4 candidates are taken seriously, and that the national environment and/or personal qualities allow for the Democratic candidates to perform very well.

This is just for fun - I didn't spend all that much time on it. I fed some numbers from recent elections into a spreadsheet, and this is what came out. I didn't closely check the results, so I don't doubt there are oddities/improbabilities.

Great work Harry.

The toughest sale here, though, is Presley winning >50% in those northeastern counties.  Understandably he's very popular there, but I just don't see him being able to get the level of support he's use to getting in a federal race featuring multiple candidates (a lot of the crossover appeal that Presley has would be "wasted" on Hosemann, at least in the first round).   

If the DSCC is serious about this race, they need a unified Democratic front.  I wonder if Espy would step aside for Presley or Hood.

[Doimper]

Anybody else think that Espy's strength in the jungle primary and runoff might be underrated? He's going to have a lot of African-American support in the primary even if Presley enters, and the optics of a McDaniel vs. Espy runoff would pump up turnout.

[YE]

MS isn't electing a black man statewide.

[Doimper]

MS isn't electing a black man statewide.

Alabama wouldn't, but the black voting bloc in Mississippi is much stronger. We'll see.

[MAINEiac4434]

MS isn't electing a black man statewide.

Espy would need something like only 20% of white voters with strong black turnout.

[Cactus Jack]

MS isn't electing a black man statewide.

Espy would need something like only 20% of white voters with strong black turnout.

Exactly that. And both of those things are very likely when the most apparent GOP nominee is an out-and-out Neo-Confederate.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

From what I have gathered on Wikipedia, Espy was ultimately acquitted of any wrongdoing with a gifts scandal. I was worried before that the whole thing may have made him damaged goods, but... well.. it was a nothingburger in relation to Espy.

Espy could be a strong candidate. It is hard to tell right now; he has the disadvantage of not having been in office for quite some time, yet he could bring up black turnout- vital for the state with the largest black population by percentage in the US.

Presley has shown he can win deep-red areas, and is also sitting in an office that serves a large chunk of Mississippi.

Don't know! We have not had many competitive statewide races in Mississippi for quite some time.