Eras gone by: a 2020-? TL

[SamTilden2020]

2020 CA Primary Ballot (500 Delegates):
Delaney, John
Kildee, Dan
Warren, Elizabeth
Booker, Corey
Cuomo, Andrew
Dayton, Mark
Merkley, Jeff
Murphy, Chris
Baldacci, John
Bullock, Steven
Harris, Kamala

[SamTilden2020]

2020 California Primary Result (500 Delegates):
Jeff Merkley:23% (115 Delegates)
Kamala Harris: 20% (100 Delegates)
Dan Kildee: 17% (85 Delegates)
Elizabeth Warren: 16% (80 Delegates)
Steve Bullock:14% (70 Delegates)
Corey Booker: 4% (20 Delegates)
Chris Murphy: 3% (15 Delegates)
John Delaney: 0.6% (3 Delegates)
Dropouts: 2.4% (12 Delegates)

John Delaney to cheering crowd of 12 supporters: "I will not drop out!!!"
Murphy, Booker drop out

Map:

Key:
Blue=Merkley win
Red=Warren win
Gray=Result TBD

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Harris only got 20% of her home state and didn't drop out immediately? Honey it's time to go....

[SamTilden2020]

Harris only got 20% of her home state and didn't drop out immediately? Honey it's time to go....

Well it is still relatively early in the primary season, but I doubt she can go far if she can't even win her own state (let alone lose by a thin margin).

[SamTilden2020]

The rest of the primaries (as it got boring):
Kildee takes NV and SC, shocking all and forcing Harris to drop out

Merkley does excellent in Super Tuesday, along with Kildee wins in MN and TN.

Bullock drops out post-ST, citing lack of momentum and wins.

More Reps endorse Kildee, giving him more momentum.

Kildee abruptly drops out post-NY for "reasons"

Merkley dominates given that his momentum hasn't really stopped

Merkley finishes ahead of Warren in delegate count, and becomes nominee.

DNC 2020 (St. Louis):

Speakers:
Senator Bob Casey Jr.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Jon Ossoff
Khzir Khan
Congresswoman Chellie Pingree
DNC Chair Tom Perez
Congressional Black Caucus Chair Terri Sewell
Governor Jay Pritzker
Congressman Lacy Clay
Ex. AG Eric Holder

Nominees:
Senator Jeffrey Alan Merkley of Oregon (for president, nominated by Senator Jack Reed)
Congressman Daniel Timothy Kildee of Michigan (for vice president, nominated by Congresswoman Dina Titus)

Polls:
National:
Merkley/Kildee: 51%
Trump/LePage: 45%
Sarwark/Parsons: 2%

Map based on polls:

[SamTilden2020]

Editor's note: Henry Leip is the Nephew of Atlas Founder Dave Leip. You will eventually find out who "Wes" is.

June 25 2058: Office of Senator Chris Marshall of Pennsylvania (Lott Office Building)

"Senator, the schedule calls for some downtime. No events, no votes as of now."

"Thanks, Wes. You know, after all those years on that one obscure political site, you still seem to be the best choice for chief of staff."

Senator Marshall had needed this break. After he defeated (REDACTED), and had to cast a difficult vote on (REDACTED), he needed this break. He knew this year would be tough, given that he has such a strong challenger, in such a tough year. Now that he had downtime, all Senator Marshall had to do was to fill it. He had felt nostalgic toward the first election returns he had ever watched live, when he was two years old. He looked up the Henry Leip Political Atlas once more, found the election returns live topic, and selected the one he found most promising:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

End of Chapter 1

[SamTilden2020]

Chapter 2: Era of Power

CNN Election returns, election day 2020

6:00PM:

"Welcome to the 2020 election returns where President Donald Trump looks to hold on to his Pennsylvania Office, and Senator Jeff Merkley looks to get the office for himself. As of now returns from Indiana and Kentucky are in, and we have some projections:

CNN can project the state of Kentucky for President Trump, and the Indiana race remains too early to call. Additionally, in Kentucky the Senate race remains too close to call between Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell and Anti-Mcconnell fusion ticket candidate Jim Gray."

Electoral Totals:
Trump: 8
Merkley: 0

Senate:
GOP (Mcconnell or TBD): 33
DEM (Schumer): 33

[The Govanah Jake]

Come on Merkley

[SamTilden2020]

7:00 AM

"And Polls have closed in the states of Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. This brings us to another round of projections.

CNN can project that President Trump has won the states of South Carolina. CNN can also project that Senator Merkley has won the state of Vermont, home of the senator's closest and most known backer, senator Bernie Sanders. The states of Georgia and Virginia remain too early to call.

In the senate races now, CNN can project Senator Tim Scott has won reelection, and the races in Georgia and Virginia remain too early to call.

And for a key race alert, Trump has taken a slight lead in Indiana, though his lead is lower than expected. In the Kentucky Senate race, the race between Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell and former mayor Jim Gray remains too close to call."

7:30 PM

"With more polls closing, CNN has more projections. CNN can project that President Trump has won the state of West Virginia, and the races in North Carolina and Ohio remain too early to call.

On the senate side, CNN can project that Senator Shelly Moore Capito has won reelection in the state of West Virginia. However, in the state of North Carolina, the rematch between Senator Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan is still too early to call.

Map (Electoral Map):

Senate:
GOP (Mcconnell or TBD): 35
DEM (Schumer): 33

[SamTilden2020]

8:00 PM

"Polls have closed in a slew of states, and so CNN has more to project:

Cue cnn election day theme

"CNN can project that President Trump has won several states. CNN projects that he has won the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Also, CNN can project that Senator Merkley has won the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia. CNN remains unable to project the results in Florida, Maine, Missouri and Pennsylvania.

On the senate side, CNN projects incumbents Roy Moore, Susan Collins, Jim Inhofe, Lamar Alexander, and Former Governor Bill Haslam have retained their seats for the republicans, while Democratic Senators Chris Coons, Richard Durbin, Jeanne Shaheen, Cory Booker, and Jack Reed have kept their seats in Democratic hands for the 117th Congress.

Surprisingly enough, the senate race in Massachusetts between Senator Ed Markey and Political Analyst David Leip (wait Anderson is this even correct) is too close to call. This race may be the most odd of the Senate races this cycle."

Anderson Cooper in the back: "No really Wolf that is what the results show."

Senate:
GOP (Mcconnell or TBD): 40
DEM (Schumer): 38

[SamTilden2020]

8:30 PM:

"CNN can project that the state of Arkansas and its 6 Electoral Votes will go to President Trump. Additionally, CNN can now call the state of Indiana for President Trump.

However in the senate, the race between former Senator Blanche Lincoln and Incumbent Tom Cotton Remains too close to call."

9:00PM:

"CNN can project several states now. CNN can Project that President Trump has won the states of Kansas, Louisiana, the Majority of Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Additionally, Senator Merkley has won the states of New Mexico, and New York. The states of Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas, and Wisconsin remain too early to call.

On the senate side, CNN can project that Senators Pat Roberts, Ben Sasse, Mike Rounds, John Cornyn, and Mike Enzi have all won reelection for the republicans, and Senators Gary Peters, Al Franken, and Mark Udall have won reelection. The races in Colorado and Louisiana remain Too early to call.


Senate:
GOP (Mcconnell or TBD): 45
DEM (Schumer): 41

Map:

[SamTilden2020]

10:00 PM

"It's ten o'clock and CNN has more projections to make:

Cue cnn election day theme

"CNN can project that the states of Montana and Utah will go to President Trump. The states of Iowa and Nevada remain too early to call.

In terms of Senate races, CNN finds that the races in Iowa and Montana remain too close to call."

10:15pm

"CNN can project results in 3 key states:

CNN projects that President Trump will win the states of Ohio and Missouri, and that senator Merkley will win the state of New Mexico."

[SamTilden2020]

Editor's note: Steve Palazzo won the senate race in Mississippi. My Mistake not including him.

10:45: VA, CO projected for senator Merkley, Warner Reelected, Polis Defeats Gardner (DEM Gain)

11:00: CA, HI, OR, WA called for Merkley, Idaho Called for Trump,  OR House Speaker Kotek wins Merkley's seat, Risch Reelected

11:15: North Carolina called for Trump

11:23: Kentucky called for Gray, Mcconnell defeated (DEM Gain)

11:35: FL, IA called for Trump, Ernst wins reelection

12:05: NC Called for Hagan, Tillis Defeated (DEM Gain)

12:45: NV Called for Merkley

1:00: AK Called for Trump, AK Senate race remains too early to call

2:00: ME-AL, ME-1 for Merkley, ME-2 for Trump, NE-2 for Trump

2:15: Lincoln defeats Cotton, (DEM Gain)

2: 45: Sullivan Reelected in Alaska

3:00 Cassidy wins LA Senate Race narrowly

3:15: Merkley wins WI, MI by narrow margain

3:20: Trump wins AZ

3:25: Markey defeats Leip

GOP (TBD): 50
DEM (Schumer): 48

Senate TBD Races:
Montana (Daines vs Bullock)
Georgia (Perdue vs Barrow)

[SamTilden2020]

3:35: Montana called for Daines

3:40:

"In a stunning blow to the Merkley camp, President Trump will once again carry the state of Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. Now the state that will decide the election is Georgia."

3:45: Georgia called for Perdue

4:00:

"CNN can now project that Senator Merkley has won the state of Georgia, making him the 46th President of the United States."

Senator Jeff Merkley/Congressman Dan Kildee: 274
President Donald Trump/ Former Governor Paul Lepage: 264

[SamTilden2020]

Editor's note: Phil Scott won reelection in 2020, defeating congressman Peter Welch

117th Congress Leadership:

House:
Speaker: Adam Schiff
Maj. Leader: James Langevin
Maj. Whip: Clyburn

Min. Leader: Paul Ryan
Min. Whip: Kevin Mccarthy

Senate:
Maj. Leader: John Thune
Maj. Whip: Jim Risch

Min. Leader: Chuck Schumer
Min. Whip: Richard Durbin

Jan 20 2021: Merkley, Kildee inaugurated

Jan-April: Merkley Struggles to get his cabinet confirmed with the Narrow GOP majority in the senate.

June 13 2021: Controversial Merkley Doctrine Passed (Strong Consequences on those who undermine USA security (especially cybersecurity), will go hard on those who invade, Russia on embargo until further notice)

July 1 2021: Senator Sanders resigns due to ailing health

July 4 2021: Senator Leahy Dies at Burlington Fourth-Of-July Party

NEXT: The appointments

[SamTilden2020]

The Pavilion (VT Governor's residence) July 5 2021

"Madam Leahy, I extend my deepest condolences to your loss, Ma'am."

After his condolences call to the late Leahy's widow, VT Gubernatorial Chief of Staff Ben Bartley printed a list of names, of the GOP members of Vermont that would be eligible.

"I have an idea: For Leahy's seat, we name our friend Mr. Milne. For Bernie's seat, we name his house predecessor."

"Wait, wait, you seriously think you can run SMITH? For Pete's sake Phil, he's 76!"

"I know. It could be a nice retirement present."

"But Phil, he's 76!"

"I know exactly who will succeed him in the special election. Besides, DiFi's 88!"

"Who exactly do you plan for doing that?"

"You are looking at him!"

"Fine. Enjoy this moment. We'll do a press release later today."

NEXT: The 2021 Special Elections

[SamTilden2020]

2021 Vermont Senatorial Special Election Results:

Class 3 (Formerly Leahy's seat):
Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger (D): 61%
Incumbent US Senator Scott Milne (R): 35%
Some random VT Socialist (SVT): 4%

Class 1 (Formerly Bernie's seat):
Governor Phil Scott (R): 49%
Ex. Rep. Pete Welch: (D): 48%
Some random VT Socialist (No relation to Class 3 nominee): 3%

R+1 (Post-Congress Start), D+1 (Post-Appointments)

R: 53
D: 47

[SamTilden2020]

2021 Gubernatorials:
Scott Garrett defeats Phil Murphy (R+1)
Ex-Rep Randy Forbes defeats Mark Herring (R+1)

2022 Midterms:

Highlights:

Mike Coffman Defeats Michael Bennett (R+1)
Brian Sandoval Defeats CCM (R+1)
Bill Huizenga Defeats Sander Levin (R+1) (To succeed Sec of Labor Stabenow)
Erik Paulsen Defeats Keith Ellison (R+1) (To succeed Sec of Agriculture Klobuchar)

GOP wins house at 244 seats

US Senate Totals
GOP (NRSC Chair Josh Mandel) (Thune): 57 (+4)
DEM (DSCC Chair Maggie Hassan) (Schumer): 43

2024 Electoral Map (Based on the 2016 map):

2019 Gubernatorials:
Barr wins KY (GOP Hold)
Reeves reelected (R Hold)
Angelle Reelected (L Hold)

2024 Polls:
Generic R: 54%
Merkley/Kildee: 43%

[SamTilden2020]

Lt. Gov. Ralph Harrison Campaign Event, Philly, PA (March 28 2058):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2058 Senate Polls:
Lt. Gov. Ralph Harrison: 45%
Senator R. Chris Marshall: 44%

Class 3 PA Senators (Since 1950):
F. Myers
J. Duff
J. Clark
R. Schweiker
A. Specter
P. Toomey
(REDACTED)
(REDACTED)
(REDACTED)
R. Marshall
TBD

[SamTilden2020]

2024 Election: the wipeout
2024 Electoral Results:

Rand Paul/Josh Mandel: 55%
Jeff Merkley/Dan Kildee: 42%

2024 Senate Results:

Brian Fitzpatrick defeats Bob Casey (R+1)
Patricia Rucker defeats Joe Manchin (R+1)
Doug Ducey defeats Kyrsten Sinema (R+1)
Susanna Martinez defeats Martin Heinrich (R+1)
Cathy Mcmorris Rogers defeats Maria Cantwell (R+1)
Doug Burgum defeats Heidi Heitkamp (R+1)
Mike Gallagher defeats Tammy Baldwin (R+1)
Matt Gaetz defeats Bill Nelson (R+1)
Scott Taylor defeats Tim Kaine (R+1)
Tom Kean defeats Don Norcross (R+1)
David Castle (relative of Mike) defeats Tom Carper (R+1)
Bruce Poliquin defeats Chellie Pingree (R+1)

GOP:69
Dems:31

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

Aren't Booker and Coons Class 2 Senators?

[SamTilden2020]

Aren't Booker and Coons Class 2 Senators?

Fixed

[SamTilden2020]

Poll up on what I should cover next

[SamTilden2020]

Paul Midterms:

Kean Reelected in NJ (R Hold)
James McCall elected in VA (R Hold)

Special Elections (Sen):
Dave Reed defeats Dwight Evans (To succeed Sec. of Labor Pat Toomey)
William Ellison Defeats James Rudolph (R+1) (To succeed CIA director Ron Wyden)

US House (2026):
Republicans: 288 (+19)
Democrats: 145 (-21)
Libertarians: 2 (+2)

Notable Races:
Louisiana Second Congressional District Jungle Primary :
Cedric Richmond (I) (D): 36%
John LeMartin (L):34%
Joseph Cao (R): 30%

Louisiana Second Congressional District Runoff (L+1):
John LeMartin (L): 51%
Cedric Richmond (D): 49%

Pennsylvania Seventeenth Congressional District (L+1):
Larry Relindall (L): 36%
Ted Mcgovern (R): 32%
Matt Cartwright (D): 32%

US Senate 2018 Results:
Matt Bevin Defeats Jim Gray (R+1)
Bruce Westerman Defeats Blanche Lincoln (R+1)
Cory Gardner defeats Jared Polis (R+1)
Mark Walker defeats Kay Hagan and Jeff Jackson (R+1)
Jason Lewis Defeats Al Franken (R+1)
Jorge Gonzalez defeats Tom Udall (R+1)

GOP: 75 seats (R+6)
DEM: 25 Seats (R-6)

[SamTilden2020]

Jan 25. 2027: Sen. Kevin de Leon of CA (he succeeds Feinstein) proposes potential "Progressive Party", plans to form it when enough members in either house join it to force democrats into third-party status.

"It is no surprise that the Democrats are on the losing side of politics today. However, with a new party in place, the new generation of progressives can put their trust (and let's be honest, votes) into a more useful party".

Jan 26: Weinberger, Schatz, Murphy, Booker "open to a new party", 5 of 13 senators required to force Democrats to third-party status in the senate, the 63 Dems of the CPC support Leon's new party (10 more to force Dems to third-party)

March 3 2027: Paul admin. record approval:
Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 33%
Unsure: 11%

April: Harris, Hassan, Reed, Coons, Raskin (he succeeds Cardin) join de Leon's new "party", 10 of 13 required to be ahead of Dems, 5 dems join for house (68 of 73)

May: Gabbard (who succeeds Hirono), Udall join  de Leon "party", 4 more dems join de Leon's alliance

June 3: Adam Smith, Patty Murray resign from congress, Dem status is in the balance for the special elections

WA-9 special election polls:
Ellie Renton (P): 40%
Ted McMorton (D): 35%
Pete Moore (R): 11%
Undecided: 4%

WA-Sen special election Polls:
Pat Gregoire (D): 30%
Edwin Ross (R): 30%
Luke Quarton (P): 30%