Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone who thinks Trump has a prayer of winning Minnesota is in for a rude awakening.

[LimoLiberal]

Anyone who thinks Trump has a prayer of winning Minnesota is in for a rude awakening.

Lol.

PPP found his approval 44-53 in late November, at the height of his national unpopularity.

This poll isn't hugely different at 45-47, and makes perfect sense given Trump's bump in approval ratings since PPP's poll.

Obama won Ohio in 2012 with a 45% approval rating in the state.

Donald Trump can certainly win Minnesota in 2020.

[BudgieForce]

Anyone who thinks Trump has a prayer of winning Minnesota is in for a rude awakening.

Lol.

PPP found his approval 44-53 in late November, at the height of his national unpopularity.

This poll isn't hugely different at 45-47, and makes perfect sense given Trump's bump in approval ratings since PPP's poll.

Obama won Ohio in 2012 with a 45% approval rating in the state.

Donald Trump can certainly win Minnesota in 2020.

Trump had a slight uptick in November. His national low point was mid December.

[Arnaud]

No doubt Trump is trending up. i just saw on twitter than PPP has him at 42% (@politics_polls)

No doubt in my mind than come election day he can get back all the same voters as last time but honestly i don't see the dem turnout be as low as 2016.

If Trump is not at 48-50% come election day i don't think he can win.

For me the real dark horse will be Tim Ryan if he runs. If Tim Ryan is nominate no way Trump will win in my mind and certainly not in MN.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP for Progressive Change Campaign

Approve: 42 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

Surge continues

[BudgieForce]

PPP for Progressive Change Campaign

Approve: 42 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

Surge continues

Got a link?

[LimoLiberal]

PPP for Progressive Change Campaign

Approve: 42 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

Surge continues

Got a link?

sorry

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/12/oprah-2020-polls-336488

[Brittain33]

PPP for Progressive Change Campaign

Approve: 42 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

Surge continues

Got a link?

sorry

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/12/oprah-2020-polls-336488

Good find, thanks for sharing!

[Sir Mohamed]

PPP for Progressive Change Campaign

Approve: 42 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

Surge continues

Got a link?

sorry

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/12/oprah-2020-polls-336488

I wonder whether the orange clown makes a tweet about that.

[pbrower2a]

The old map (but updated!) showing approvals for all 50 states, but nothing to do with Cook PVI:



This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

The near-ties in Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi; and Tennessee;  the edge that I see against Trump in Louisiana; and his abysmal approval ratings in Georgia all suggest a collapse of Trump support within the Mountain and Deep South. This is before I discuss such states as Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia  that are or have been marginally "Southern" in their politics. This is more recent (no earlier than October) than what I see for thirty states for which I have not shown contrasts between 'normal' results in a 50-50 election according to their Cook

*((((((((( CV&U

(sorry, the cat jumped upon my keyboard)

PVI ratings in some more recent exercises.  This almost suggests a reversion to the situation with Carter in 1976, except that the demographic patterns of voting suggest something different.

The election of Senator Doug Jones suggests that a pattern of educated white suburbanites drifting away from the GOP in 2006, 2008, and 2012 in the North and West that did not happen in the South in those elections may be happening in the South. Jones did well among the presumable 'high-information' voters in such places as Huntsville and Tuscaloosa in December. To be sure, that is but one election, and any trend can reverse quickly.

Meanwhile, things are not going well for Trump 'Up North'. One poll of Iowa showed disapproval for Trump at 60% and another showed disapproval at 51%; were I to make a guess than to rigidly follow my model (which I must do for the sake of consistency) his disapproval in Iowa is probably about 55%, which suggests that Trump would get no more than about 45% of the vote in Iowa. That is about what John McCain got in 2008. Michigan and New Hampshire, the two closest states for Trump in 2016, show intense disapproval for President Trump.

Sure, I'd like more data. Texas, which is marginally "Southern" because it straddles cultural regions of America and is not a region in itself despite its size, might confirm or deny my conjectures. I have seen polls of Texas in which Trump is underwater, and I would not be surprised to see such again.  I still want to see new polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania, for which I have nothing, and for Arizona and Nevada, for which polling is old. Not that there are any big electoral prizes in the states of the High Plains and Badlands from Montana to Oklahoma, I have a big hole for recent polling in such states.

Would you be surprised to see South Carolina underwater for Trump at this stage? I wouldn't.

OK, you say -- maybe the Georgia poll is an exaggeration. Tough luck on that. It follows a shocking statement by the President with racist overtones about some countries and people from them. But in my experience in watching elections, shocks stick. Never mind that President Trump could hardly do worse with the black vote in 2020 than he did in 2016 -- the poll shows white people turning against him. Racism is a dying phenomenon in America, and the President should have kept his mouth shut in the presence of people who could confirm the "$#!+hole" remark. He can't quite lie his way out of it.  

At this point I see the 2020 election looking like one in which the Democrat has a chance of winning every state that any Democratic nominee for President since 1976, which implies a vote for even an average Democratic nominee that combines Carter and Obama wins while picking off Arizona.    

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota, Minneapolis Star-Telegram

45 approve 47 disapprove

(8% undecided).

Siena College New York: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/cuomo-starts-re-election-year-tough-budget-season-with-all-ratings-up-best

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 63%


Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.  
 
  

Twenty-two states with recent polls... now nearly half (44%) of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see.

The 2020  election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.

Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...

it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.  

*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.

[LimoLiberal]

Two new polls today.

Zogby (not a good polling outfit, last polled in late October)
Approve - 46 (+2)
Disapprove - 51 (-2)

Their highest number for him since late April, consistent with the large surge in approval he's had since the new year.

Rasmussen
Approve - 45 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (+2)

too early to see if it is noise or showing reaction to sh*thole comments, etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zogby, Jan 12-15, 847 LV (change from Oct)

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 41

[kph14]

Two new polls today.

Zogby (not a good polling outfit, last polled in late October)
Approve - 46 (+2)
Disapprove - 51 (-2)

Their highest number for him since late April, consistent with the large surge in approval he's had since the new year.

Rasmussen
Approve - 45 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (+2)

too early to see if it is noise or showing reaction to sh*thole comments, etc.

You're a hack. Small improvements are part of surge while a small decline is statistical noise...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Two new polls today.

Zogby (not a good polling outfit, last polled in late October)
Approve - 46 (+2)
Disapprove - 51 (-2)

Their highest number for him since late April, consistent with the large surge in approval he's had since the new year.

Rasmussen
Approve - 45 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (+2)

too early to see if it is noise or showing reaction to sh*thole comments, etc.

You're a hack. Small improvements are part of surge while a small decline is statistical noise...

[pbrower2a]

Two new polls today.

Zogby (not a good polling outfit, last polled in late October)
Approve - 46 (+2)
Disapprove - 51 (-2)

Their highest number for him since late April, consistent with the large surge in approval he's had since the new year.

Rasmussen
Approve - 45 (-1)
Disapprove - 54 (+2)

too early to see if it is noise or showing reaction to sh*thole comments, etc.

Is Sarah Huckster-be Sanders posting here?

[Ban my account ffs!]

That MN poll was awful.  Definitely not an accurate poll.  I think their methodology was off somehow.  They showed 70% approval for Trump in northern MN.  That should’ve been enough to make the Strib toss the poll in the garbage.

[LimoLiberal]

That MN poll was awful.  Definitely not an accurate poll.  I think their methodology was off somehow.  They showed 70% approval for Trump in northern MN.  That should’ve been enough to make the Strib toss the poll in the garbage.

Yes, because every good poll for Trump is "inaccurate".

[BudgieForce]

That MN poll was awful.  Definitely not an accurate poll.  I think their methodology was off somehow.  They showed 70% approval for Trump in northern MN.  That should’ve been enough to make the Strib toss the poll in the garbage.

Yes, because every good poll for Trump is "inaccurate".

When a C+ pollster releases an outlier, it's generally wise to be skeptical.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 11-15, 1641 adults

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 11-15, 1641 adults

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

More voters trust the GOP with foreign policy??

[pbrower2a]

That MN poll was awful.  Definitely not an accurate poll.  I think their methodology was off somehow.  They showed 70% approval for Trump in northern MN.  That should’ve been enough to make the Strib toss the poll in the garbage.

Outliers happen. But it is possible that the President's vague promises for infrastructure resonate well among iron and copper miners who expect to fare much better when there is a drive to build or rebuild infrastructure, even if such is at most a bubble, and even if it eventually turns into a pipe dream.

What is the infrastructure program? Is it nothing more than privatization of big chunks of the private sector, which is so raw a deal that it might not be worth the jobs? We do not know yet.

Remember: Donald Trump is at the level of morality of the most flamboyant televangelists, and what they say can sound very good before it falls apart.Donald Trump is little different; think of the border wall that Mexico is supposedly going to pay for. If you believe that, then I have a bridge to sell you. Excited? It's dental work from a dead man. Yuk!

This said, America has underinvested in infrastructure and had to settle for the model of private-public partnerships in which the government takes the risks and a monopolizing gouger takes the profits. If Trump fails, then someone else will succeed at it. President Amy Klobuchar, perhaps?

[King Lear]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 11-15, 1641 adults

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Wow, even Reuters has Trump hitting 40%. The surge is real folks, Sadly, Democrats are going to be slaughtered this November if these trends continue.

[BlueSwan]

Anybody have a reasonable explanation for the Trump surge. He help pass an unpopular tax bill before christmas and since then we have had "Fire and Fury", we have had the public Bannon feud, we have had "sh*tholes", we have had the "very stable genius", we've had the "bigger button" tweet and we have probably had a bunch of other idiotic stuff that I have already forgotten about.

Don't tell it is just statistical noise. There has definitely been a clear uptick in Trumps numbers.

So apparently the tax bill helped him instead of hurting him.

Apparently the Bannon feud didn't alienate the Deplorables.

Apparently the inane amount of hilariously idiotic events didn't hurt him either.

Instead he has surged.

The only reasonable explanation I can come up with is that Trump sceptics are returning BECAUSE of the tax cuts and the Bannon feud, while the deplorables remain loyal to their dear leader regardless of what happens. This further illustrates my point that you can't use Trumps poor approval numbers to predict a democratic 2020 landslide at all. The republican Trump sceptics will find their excuse to vote for him while holding their nose, just as they did in 2016.

[King Lear]

That MN poll was awful.  Definitely not an accurate poll.  I think their methodology was off somehow.  They showed 70% approval for Trump in northern MN.  That should’ve been enough to make the Strib toss the poll in the garbage.

Yes, because every good poll for Trump is "inaccurate".

You raise a very accurate point LimoLiberal, in that I fear many other Democrats here have a tendency to ignore date that conflicts with their preconceived notions. This behavior devastated our Party in 2010, 2014, and 2016, when Democrats put their heads in the sand and pretended that the Republicans couldn’t win, and then Election Day came and they were all so shocked that they lost.