2018 New Brunswick election

[mileslunn]

Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...

I believe the leader is running in Saint John Harbour which is probably the most NDP friendly riding in the province so certainly possible.  Heck maybe even the People's Alliance leader will win his riding although skeptical.

[the506]

Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...

It might be all they have. Though she's up against formidable Liberal and PC candidates.

[136or142]

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

[136or142]

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

Well, where is the 24/7 coverage of the New Brunswick election that I desire then?

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

Well, where is the 24/7 coverage of the New Brunswick election that I desire then?

Unfortunately not a lot of media coverage, but once party announcements perhaps.  Also very little polling either although I suspect on September 23rd you will have a few polls in the field to try and claim bragging rights.

[adma]

Actually, this thread's been surprisingly *active" for a pre-election thread for a place as supposedly mundane as New Brunswick.

[DC Al Fine]

Grenier's projector has the People's Alliance at 7%

[the506]

Hey, we're used to being ignored by the rest of the country.

Doesn't help that the Quebec and Toronto municipal races are going on at the same time. If NB wanted any national attention at all for their elections, they couldn't pick a worse time.

Grenier's projector has the People's Alliance at 7%

Doesn't surprise me. Most of their candidates here in the Fredericton area have very active campaigns already.

[the506]

Mayor of Caraquet running for the PCs. Still not sure how well they'll do among Acadians, but they're sure trying.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-progessive-conservative-acadian-support-1.4792502

EDIT: on the other hand, Radio-Canada says they will not be able to do a debate in French because Blaine Higgs still isn't comfortable speaking it: https://twitter.com/roycomeau/status/1031522874958536704

[the506]

Writ drops today.

CRA: 50-30-7-7-6.
https://cra.ca/liberals-enjoy-sizeable-lead-at-the-start-of-nb-election/

For whatever reason, CRA always seems to overstate Liberal support compared to other pollsters.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you look at all the pollsters, the Liberals have been trending upwards throughout the campaign, so I guess it's possible.

[RogueBeaver]

Radio-Canada debate cancelled due to Higgs' unilingualism and Gallant's refusal to debate a surrogate.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

[Harlow]

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions?

[the506]

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions?

Oddly enough, the same kind of party minus the *overt* anti-Frenchness.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions?

Oddly enough, the same kind of party minus the *overt* anti-Frenchness.

L’ALLIANCE DES GENS

[136or142]

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions?

How about the Quantum of Solace Party?

[the506]

Over the next few days I’m going to do some profiles of each of the 49 ridings. Let’s begin, shall we?

Saint John / Fundy Coast

St. Croix
Formerly known as Charlotte-Campobello and Western Charlotte, this riding in the far southwest corner of the province contains the border town of St. Stephen, the resort town of St. Andrews and the village of McAdam. It’s voted with the government every time since it was created in its current form in 1995, with the exception of 2006 when PC Tony Huntjens barely held on.

The current MLA is tourism minister John Ames, who won a close race by less than 2% in 2014. He’s in big trouble this time, as the Tories have recruited longtime federal MP Greg Thompson, who has been uber-popular in that part of the province for years. My guess? If there’s only one PC pickup in the entire province, this will be it. A strong People’s Alliance campaign may be a spoiler, but not likely.
Likely PC

Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
This sprawling riding follows the Fundy coastline from St. Andrews to Saint John. It includes the towns of St. George and Blacks Harbour, Grand Manan and Deer Island, as well as exurban Saint John neighbourhoods like Lorneville and Martinon. The economy, as you might expect, is heavily based on fisheries and aquaculture. Connors Brothers, one of the largest sardine processors in the world, is based in Blacks Harbour. The Point Lepreau nuclear plant is also located in the riding. Voting patterns are similar to equivalent fishing areas in NS, PEI or NL, which means it tends to vote Liberal more often than the rest of rural English New Brunswick – in fact, factoring in boundary changes, the St. George area has been represented continuously by a Liberal since 1978.

Liberal MLA and energy minister Rick Doucet has been in the legislature since 1999, and won in a landslide over the late “maverick” PC MLA Doc Parrott in 2014, in a battle of incumbents forced by riding boundary changes. Doucet’s PC challenger this time is Andrea Anderson-Mason, who’s been regarded as a strong campaigner, but I can’t see her overcoming Doucet’s personal popularity.
Likely Liberal

Saint John-Lancaster
The very working class west side of Saint John, formerly known as Lancaster back in the day, is mostly found within this riding. It includes employers like the Irving pulp mill and Moosehead Breweries. In keeping with the neighbourhood’s culture, most of its MLAs over the years have been known for their strong personalities – McKenna-era cabinet minister Jane Barry, PC Norm McFarlane (who later became mayor), Liberal Abel LeBlanc (best known for challenging a Tory opponent to a fight on the floor of the legislature).

The MLA since 2010 has been PC Dorothy Shephard, who isn’t letting a little thing like breast cancer keep her from running again.  She’s up against B&B owner Kathleen Riley-Karmanos for the Liberals and perennial local NDP candidate Tony Mowery.
Leaning PC

Saint John Harbour
Running in this riding seemed like a good idea at the time for new NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie. Saint John Harbour is the riding covering the city centre, which is hipster-fying at a huge rate, not to mention two of the province’s poorest neighbourhoods in the north and south ends. It was the personal fiefdom of former NDP leader Elizabeth Weir for 14 years. The Liberal incumbent Ed Doherty isn’t even running again. In any other province this would be a slam dunk for the NDP.

But the NDP in this province still hasn’t recovered from the loss of the traditional left-wing voters caused by Dominic Cardy’s shift to the centre, and the subsequent loss of said centre voters caused by Cardy’s forcing out last year.  The Liberals and Tories have both nominated star candidates – city councillor Gerry Lowe and community activist Barry Ogden respectively. Polls have shown the NDP without any sort of boost in Saint John compared to the rest of the province. It’s become an uphill battle for McKenzie, and with basically zero prospects elsewhere, this is it for the orange team. David Coon won Fredericton South for the Greens under similar circumstances 4 years ago, maybe history will repeat itself? I have my doubts.
Liberal-PC-NDP tossup

Portland-Simonds
This is mostly the old money part of Saint John, consisting of the areas around Rockwood Park and Milledgeville, as well as smaller, poorer, immigrant-heavy sections of the North End (formerly called Portland in the 19th century) and East Side (Simonds) that trended Liberal 4 years ago but got outvoted. PC MLA Trevor Holder has been in the legislature since 1999, including a 15-point victory in 2014. I can’t see him losing in this political climate, even with city councillor John MacKenzie carrying the Liberal banner.
Likely PC

Saint John East
This middle-to-lower class suburban riding covers most of the city’s east side (as the name suggests), including the Irving Oil refinery. 4 years ago, Liberal Gary Keating survived a protracted recount battle and won by 9 votes, only to quit after 2 weeks because he couldn’t handle the workload. His PC opponent Glen Savoie easily won the by-election and is re-offering this year.  The Liberal campaign looks fairly weak this time.
Likely PC

Rothesay
By far the richest town in the province, Rothesay is home to the Irving family and the province’s only private boarding school. It’s that kind of place. The PC MLA is Ted Flemming, grandson of 1950s premier Hugh John Flemming, and he will undoubtedly have a senior cabinet position should the Tories win the election. He’s in a rematch against Rothesay High School principal Stephanie Tomilson for the Liberals, who he defeated by 18 points in 2014.
Safe PC

Quispamsis
Quispamsis is Rothesay’s more middle-class neighbour. It’s also Blaine Higgs’ seat. Enough said. His Liberal opponent is Saint John Sea Dogs play-by-play voice Aaron Kennedy.
Safe PC

Hampton
The Hampton riding includes both the town of the same name and some exurban Saint John suburbs reaching all the way down to the coast around Loch Lomond and Red Head. 4 years ago, longtime PC MLA Bev Harrison crossed the floor to run for the NDP, only to lose to new PC candidate Gary Crossman. Crossman's main opponent this year is Liberal Carley Parish, a young lawyer. The NDP candidate this time is Layton – Layton Peck that is, coach of the Hampton High School football team. Green candidate John Sabine had a decent showing 4 years ago and is running again this time.
Likely PC

Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
This riding is based around the town of Sussex, the dairy capital of Atlantic Canada. It also includes an area around the village of St. Martins on the shore, where tourism is the main draw (seriously, if you’re ever in NB, go to the caves – they’re breathtaking). PC Bruce Northrup, who served several cabinet positions in the Alward government, has represented the riding since 2006. The Liberal candidate is (who else) a cheese maker named Ian Smyth.

The People’s Alliance had a strong 3rd-place showing with former Liberal MLA Leroy Armstrong in 2014. He’s not running this time, but they could still play spoiler. Also running as an independent: David Raymond Amos, the province’s own resident conspiracy theorist who’s always good for comic relief at debates.
Likely PC

Kings Centre
Kings Centre is a weirdly drawn riding – in order to drive it from end to end, you need to take a ferry. It includes the Saint John suburb of Grand Bay-Westfield on one side, the farming village of Norton on the other and the scenic Kingston Peninsula in the middle.

The incumbent MLA is Bill Oliver, a former staffer to Blaine Higgs who is seeking his second term in the legislature for the PCs. (Fun fact: as of this writing, his Wikipedia article includes the following: “this year, the year of 2018, Oliver turned 6 years old. It was a very fun birthday with balloon animals, a bounce house, and a magic show. He was a very happy boy that day. Yes he was.”) The Liberal candidate is Bill Merrifield, active in the Saint John recreation community and whose daughter Shannon was the Liberal candidate in 2014. It’s Oliver’s race to lose given the demographics of this riding, but this is the kind of rural anglo Bible Belt seat without a strong incumbent where a good People’s Alliance campaign may upset the apple cart.
Likely PC

[DC Al Fine]

Excellent profiles. I learned a lot. Looking forward to the rest of them.

[the506]

How bout some more:

Moncton / Southeast New Brunswick

Albert
This mostly rural riding includes most of Albert County, parts of the Moncton suburb of Riverview and the village of Salisbury. Tourism and fisheries are among the big economic draws, with Fundy National Park and the Hopewell Rocks in the riding. It is very small-c conservative, even voting for COR in 1991. The only times the Liberals won Albert since 1948 were the sweep of 1987 and the near-sweep of 1995. From 1999 to 2014, Albert was represented by the popular Wayne Steeves.

After Steeves decided not to run again 4 years ago, Brian Kierstead became the MLA for the riding, however Kierstead inexplicably lost his nomination meeting in April. Carrying the Tory banner this time will be Mike Holland, who owns an outdoor gear business called The Resourceful Redneck and once got a deal on Dragon’s Den.

Running against Holland is Liberal Catherine Black (director of the local NB Community College campus), farmer Miranda van Geest for the Greens, school bus driver Betty Weir for the NDP and Sharon Buchanan for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Riverview
This riding includes most of the town of Riverview, a middle-class suburban community across the river from downtown Moncton. It’s the most anglophone part of the area, going so far as to vote COR in 1991. Like Albert, besides the Tories’ 1987-95 years in the wilderness, the riding has voted for them in every other election since it was created in 1974. At one point it was represented by Brenda Robertson, the first female MLA in New Brunswick.

Bruce Fitch has been the MLA since 2003, and he doesn’t seem to be in much trouble this time either. His biggest opponent is Brent Mazerolle, a former newspaper reporter running for the Liberals. Also running is perennial Green candidate Stephanie Coburn, Madison Duffy for the NDP and Heather Collins for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Moncton Southwest
Can I just say Moncton riding names are completely screwed up? The bulk of the population in Moncton Southwest actually lives due north of Moncton South, which should really be called Moncton Centre because it includes downtown, while the actual Moncton Centre includes the old north end….and on and on and on.

Anyway, Moncton “Southwest” includes some baby-boom-era suburbia along the Mountain Road corridor to the north of downtown, as well as a rural/exurban area to the west around Boundary Creek and Berry Mills. The riding as we know it was created in 2014, from portions of the old Moncton North (a fairly bilingual swing seat that has tilted slightly Liberal over the years), and two very Conservative rural ridings.

The MLA is PC Sherry Wilson, who formerly represented Petitcodiac. She held on by 4% in 2014 by racking up big margins in the rural parts of the riding while the urban parts voted Liberal. She’s being challenged this time by Liberal Suzy Campos, a well-known community activist. The strongest third-party campaign looks to be the Greens’ Sarah Colwell. Add in the NDP’s Hailey Duffy and all 4 confirmed candidates so far are women.
PC-Liberal tossup

Moncton South
This riding includes downtown Moncton and most of the inner city, as well as a more suburban neighbourhood to the west around Jones Lake and Centennial Park. It’s voted for both major parties over the years. 4 years ago, now-finance minister Cathy Rogers beat Alward cabinet minister Sue Stultz by a good margin.

This time around, it should again be one of the most closely watched ridings in the province on election night. Rogers is going up against Tory candidate Moira Kelly Murphy, a well-known lawyer in the area who the PCs regard as a star candidate – and oh, she just happens to be the wife of Graham-era Liberal cabinet minister Mike Murphy. I think whoever wins the province wins here. The NDP, Green and People’s Alliance candidates are all women too.
PC-Liberal tossup

Moncton Centre
Here’s another race that will be very closely watched. The riding includes most of Moncton’s old north end, the suburban neighbourhood of Sunny Brae and the Elmwood Drive corridor. Not exactly “centre”, but I digress.

The story of this riding centres on MLA Chris Collins. As a Liberal candidate, he almost knocked off premier Bernard Lord when he first ran in 2003, won the by-election after Lord left the legislature, and later became speaker. (He’s also often mistaken for the congressman on Twitter, but that’s a story for another day.) Then at the height of the Me Too movement, the Liberals kicked him out of caucus over unspecified harassment allegations. An investigation ruled them to be founded “in part”, but the details have never been made public. He’s running as an independent to try to clear his name.

How well is he doing? My sources in Moncton say he’s winning the sign war, but that might not count for anything. His supporters contend Brian Gallant forced him out in favour of his own pick, councillor Rob McKee. The Tory candidate is Claudette Boudreau-Turner, who runs several successful local businesses, and she could very well win on the vote split. It will be a tough 3-way race. But if his electoral history is any indication, you should never count out Chris Collins.
Liberal-PC-indy tossup

Moncton Northwest
This suburban and exurban riding is found, oddly enough, in the northwest corner of the city. It is mostly anglophone and includes the tourist traps around Magnetic Hill, as well as a small rural component to the northwest.

4 years ago, Tory candidate and former local radio personality Brian Steeves won a tight battle by 3% over councillor Brian Hicks. This year, his Liberal opponent is Courtney Pringle-Carver, a VP for Atlantic Lottery. The People’s Alliance candidate is Myrna Geldart, who once ran for…the NDP?

I’d tend to give this one to Steeves just based on the demographics of the riding, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t hold on.
Leaning PC

Moncton East
This bilingual riding consists of the neighbourhoods of Lewisville and Harrisville, as well as exurban communities like Irishtown and Lakeville. It was Bernard Lord’s riding when he was premier, but outside of that era has mostly voted Liberal.

Liberal Monique LeBlanc is seeking her second term in the legislature. She’s up against Marty Kingston for the Tories, the Moncton Wildcats play-by-play announcer. It’s another close race on paper that will probably go the same way it always does.
Leaning Liberal

Dieppe
The city of Dieppe is the most Acadian and francophone section of greater Moncton. The Dieppe riding includes most of the older parts of town.

Liberal Roger Melanson was first elected in 2010, was re-elected in a landslide in 2014 and has served several senior cabinet positions under Gallant. His PC opponent is Pierre Brine, a real estate agent. The NDP is running lawyer and former daycare owner Joyce Richardson, and the Greens still don’t have a candidate.
Safe Liberal

Shediac Bay-Dieppe
The riding of Shediac Bay-Dieppe has two components: the part fishing village, part exurban areas to the immediate north and west of Shediac, and the newer suburban neighbourhoods on the east side of Dieppe. Hence the name.

The Liberal candidate is Brian Gallant. That’s all you need to know.
Safe Liberal

Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap Pelé
The town of Shediac is known as the lobster capital of the world. Most of its residents are Acadian but are known to speak in a French-English mix called Chiac. The riding continues east from Shediac along the coast to the municipalities of Beaubassin-Est and Cap-Pelé. It has voted solidly Liberal ever since it was created in 1974.

The outgoing MLA, Victor Boudreau, has held senior cabinet positions in both the Graham and Gallant governments; most recently as health minister. He has come under fire in recent years for a major conflict of interest: a new campground in which he had a financial stake may have contributed to water quality problems at the popular Parlee Beach – and the fact that his department was responsible for conducting the water tests may have led to a cover up of the worst results.

With all that in the background, Boudreau decided not to run this year.  Now carrying the Liberal banner is Shediac mayor Jacques LeBlanc, who should easily hold it.
Safe Liberal

Memramcook-Tantramar
In the southeast corner of the province lies this riding, which comes across one of those seats that’s left over after all the others in the area are drawn. The town of Sackville (home of Mount Allison University), and the anglo rural area to the east, is lumped in with the very Acadian town of Memramcook, home to the federal LeBlanc family dynasty of Romeo and Dominic.

The Green party is targeting this riding as a possible second seat, and if it was still just the Sackville area I might have given them a chance. Memramcook was split away from Dieppe and added to this riding in 2014, which caused Liberal incumbent Bernard LeBlanc (no relation) to run against Tantramar PC incumbent Mike Olscamp. A look at the poll map reveals some sharp divides: Green around the Mount A campus, a narrow PC win over the Liberals in the rest of Sackville and the Port Elgin area, while Memramcook voted 70+% Liberal. It added up to a fairly comfortable win for LeBlanc.

LeBlanc is running again for his 4th term in the legislature, this time against retired military policeman Etienne Gaudet for the PCs. Green candidate Meghan Mitton and NDPer Helene Boudreau are both returning from 2014. Having a francophone PC candidate may eat into the margin in Memramcook this time, but I still expect another geographically polarized result.
PC-Liberal tossup

Kent South
Kent County, which is mostly francophone, is divided fairly neatly into two ridings. Kent South is centered on the towns of Bouctouche and Saint-Antoine.

4 years ago, Liberal Benoit Bourque knocked off Lord-era PC MLA Claude Williams. He became health minister last year. The fact PC candidate Ricky Gautreau doesn’t even have a bio on the party website probably explains their chances of taking this riding back.
Safe Liberal

Kent North
Kent North includes the Acadian towns of Richibucto, St-Louis-de-Kent and Rogersville, an Anglophone enclave around Rexton, the province’s largest first nation at Elsipogtog, and Kouchibouguac National Park.

Politically it’s been the fiefdom of the Graham family. Alan Graham served continuously from 1967 to 1999 and served several senior cabinet positions under Frank McKenna. Shawn Graham took over from there and of course was premier from 2006-10. He left politics shortly after his government was defeated. Bertrand LeBlanc, who was first elected for Rogersville-Kouchibouguac in 2010 and moved to Kent North in 2014 when that riding was eliminated, is not running again. His assistant, Emery Comeau, is carrying the Liberal banner this time.

4 years ago this area was the height of the fracking controversy that dominated the election campaign. The Green candidate actually finished 2nd, and when I was up there over Labour Day weekend their candidate Kevin Arseneau easily had the 2nd most signs again this time. (He was pictured wearing a Country Liberty hoodie, a clothing label based in Rexton – nice touch.) But this riding is still the Liberals’ to lose.
Safe Liberal

[Hatman 🍁]

Today was the last day of nominations. The PCs, Liberals and NDP are all running full slates; the Greens in all but two seats (missing Dieppe and Shippagan). The People's Alliance are running 30 candidates, mostly in Anglo ridings. There is also a party called "KISS" running 9 candidates.

[136or142]

Today was the last day of nominations. The PCs, Liberals and NDP are all running full slates; the Greens in all but two seats (missing Dieppe and Shippagan). The People's Alliance are running 30 candidates, mostly in Anglo ridings. There is also a party called "KISS" running 9 candidates.

So, I was wrong. The NDP did manage to pull together a full slate.

[the506]

Fredericton & the River Valley

Gagetown-Petitcodiac
When I was at one of the hearings of the electoral boundary commission, one presenter called this riding “the bit that was left over after they drew everything else”. It makes no geographical sense – the Gagetown area, which is economically and culturally tied to Fredericton; the Petitcodiac area is similarly tied to Moncton; with not much but a desolate stretch of the Trans-Canada Highway connecting the two.

Luckily, the economies are similar (a lot of mixed farming and some forestry), and the political culture is similar too. Both sides are very anglo and very Conservative. Ross Wetmore is seeking his 3rd term in the legislature. Brigitte Noel, who works in the Fredericton arts community, is carrying the Liberal banner, and farmer Craig Dykeman is running for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
This riding is based partly around the town of Oromocto, home of Canada’s largest military base. It also includes the Fredericton suburban neighbourhood of Southwood Park and exurb of Lincoln.

Jody Carr, one of the 3 Carr brothers that have dominated PC politics in the Oromocto area over the last 20 years, isn’t running this time. They had nominated former CPC MP and Lord-era cabinet minister Keith Ashfield as his replacement, but he suddenly passed away in April.

The new Tory candidate is Mary Wilson, who worked as a representative for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business for several years. Retired Colonel John Fife is carrying the Liberal banner, while Craig Rector, son of former COR MLA Ab Rector, is running for the People’s Alliance.
Likely PC

New Maryland-Sunbury
One of several “rurban” ridings in the Fredericton area, New Maryland-Sunbury stretches from the city limits almost to Saint John. Most of the population is in Fredericton/Oromocto suburbs and exurbs like New Maryland, Rusagonis and Geary; it also includes portions of Sunbury and Queens counties south and west of the CFB Gagetown boundary.

It is also part of the Carr fiefdom – after Keith Ashfield left to run federally, Jack Carr (Jody’s twin brother!) succeeded him; after he left in 2014, his older brother Jeff won the seat.  In this election, Jeff Carr’s chief opponent is Liberal Alex Scholten, who runs a chain of convenience stores in the Fredericton area. (Fun fact: during the Alward government, Scholten made a lot of noise in the media about Costco and gas taxes, liquor licenses, etc. After Gallant won, he got quiet about it all of a sudden. Weird, eh?)
Likely PC

Fredericton South
Your humble scribe’s home riding, Fredericton South includes the downtown area, the UNB and St. Thomas campuses, and an inner city area known simply as “the hill”.  As you might expect, it’s more left-leaning than the surrounding areas; for instance, it was the only riding in greater Fredericton to not vote COR in 1991. In 2014, Green leader David Coon won a 4-way battle royale against sitting PC cabinet minister Craig Leonard, ex-Liberal cabinet minister turned NDPer Kelly Lamrock, and a random Liberal candidate Roy Wiggins. Since being elected, Coon has followed the Elizabeth May playbook to the letter, showing up at an exhaustive number of committee meetings, town halls, etc.

The race this time isn’t as heated, but Liberal Susan Holt (former CEO of the local chamber of commerce) has a strong campaign, with PC Scott Smith not far behind. Lawyer Chris Durrant is running for the NDP and seems to have the only real active campaign for that party in the city. The sign war, for what it’s worth, is decidedly in Coon’s favour, and I see no reason to disagree.
Likely Green

Fredericton North
Another of this year’s most closely watched ridings, Fredericton North is made up of most of the middle-class neighbourhood of Nashwaaksis; the more working-class Devon; and the St. Mary’s First Nation. With the exception of the COR surge in 1991 and the close 2003 election, it has voted with the government the rest of the time since single-member ridings were established in 1974.

Deputy premier Stephen Horsman is the only sitting Liberal MLA in the Fredericton area, but came under fire earlier this year for not knowing details about child abuse cases, which fell under another department for which he was responsible. He’s up against Tory Jill Green, the CEO of an IT firm. NDPer Scarlett Tays is the first transgender candidate ever in the province. The sign war is close between Horsman and Green, and the Greens and People’s Alliance both also have strong campaigns that may play spoiler either way. My feeling? As usual, whoever wins the province should win here.
PC-Liberal tossup

Fredericton-Grand Lake
Another “rurban” riding made up of the working-class Fredericton neighbourhoods of Marysville and Barkers Point, some suburban subdivisions along highway 10, the former coal mining town of Minto and the forestry service centre of Chipman.

4 years ago, the top 3 candidates were separated by 73 votes. Tory Pam Lynch narrowly beat People’s Alliance leader Kris Austin, setting up a rematch this year. The poll-by-poll results tell the tale: Austin ran up landslide margins in his hometown of Minto, while getting creamed in the Fredericton parts of the riding where both the PC and Liberal candidates lived. He has to make up ground in the capital city, and Austin’s deciding to hold the party’s campaign launch in Marysville was a sign he knows that. I’ve seen a lot more Austin signs now in the city than I did then, but signs don’t vote.

I wouldn’t completely count out Liberal candidate Wendy Tremblay either, who runs an IT firm in Minto and may eat into Austin’s margin there. If the right-wing vote splits just right, she could squeak through. But in my opinion, Austin has raised his profile just enough to turn this riding purple for the first time.
Leaning PANB

Fredericton-York
This is a rural and exurban riding consisting of the Nashwaak river valley, the Douglas area to the west of Fredericton, and some growing suburban developments within city limits.

Kirk MacDonald has represented most of the area in the legislature for the PCs since 1999. With boundary changes taking away some rural and adding some suburban areas, he scraped by 4 years ago thanks to the Liberals splitting the vote with a surprisingly strong NDP candidate.

His Liberal opponent this time is school principal Amber Bishop. The People’s Alliance is also throwing some heavy muscle into this riding with their candidate Rick DeSaulniers, but this is still MacDonald’s race to lose.
Likely PC

Fredericton West-Hanwell
Home to New Brunswick’s most opportunistic election candidate! Fredericton West-Hanwell stretches from the city’s inner suburbs around Odell Park, through Hanwell and Kingsclear, to the rural cottage areas around Prince William and Yoho Lake. Former NDP leader Dominic Cardy called it a microcosm of the province, which is why he picked this riding to run in 2014. The riding’s demographics were a bad fit for the NDP (lots of old money in the city and camo wearers outside), but he didn’t care. He didn’t win either. Cardy, of course, joined the PCs after he was ousted by the NDP last year.

Who did win was Brian Macdonald, a PC party lifer who was re-elected to his second term.  After winning the nomination this time, he suddenly quit. (Rumour mill says he could go for the CPC nod next year.) So who stepped in to fill the PC void? Dominic Cardy, of course! Given the demographics and the competition (the Liberal candidate is Cindy Miles, wife of former MLA Rick), Cardy should finally get into the legislature - after his 4th try, in his 3rd riding, for his 2nd party.
Likely PC

Carleton-York
This large riding covers virtually the entire rural area between Fredericton and Woodstock, on both sides of the Saint John River. Towns and villages in the riding include Nackawic, Millville, Canterbury, Meductic and Harvey Station. Forestry and energy are the major economic drivers in the riding, including the Mactaquac hydro dam and a large pulp mill in Nackawic. There’s also a small amount of farming. Sabian Cymbals, which should be a familiar name to any rock drummer, is based in Meductic.

Carl Urquhart has been an MLA for the Tories since 2006, and should be easily re-elected. This area has long been one of the heartlands of right-wing populism in the province, and my moles have told me People’s Alliance candidate Gary Lemmon could very well place second.
Safe PC

Carleton
The heart of Carleton County is in this riding, including the towns of Woodstock and Hartland.  This is the southern end of potato country (see below). Several trucking companies are based in the area too, as it is located at the junction of the Trans-Canada Highway and Interstate 95.

Former premier David Alward represented Woodstock in the legislature from 1999 until shortly after his party’s defeat in 2014. PC exec Stewart Fairgrieve comfortably won the by-election, and should comfortably win again this time.

Carleton is also home to the first bozo eruption so far in the campaign, with PANB candidate Stewart Manuel comparing Liberals to Nazis on a Facebook post. Kris Austin has, in his infinite wisdom, decided to keep him on. 
Safe PC

Carleton-Victoria
The northern section of Carleton County and southern section of Victoria County make up this riding, Potato farming is the big industry, with McCain Foods world headquarters located in Florenceville. Forestry is also a big industry and there are several small hydro dams in the riding. Other towns include Bristol, Bath, Centreville, Perth-Andover and Plaster Rock; as well as the Tobique First Nation.

It’s not as Conservative as most of the rest of anglo rural New Brunswick, with Perth-Andover often voting Liberal (thanks to a string of popular local MLAs from the area), and educated left-wingers settling in Florenceville to work for McCain.

In 2014, the Liberal candidate Andrew Harvey survived fraud charges during the campaign to win by 83 votes. The charges were admittedly minor – passing off wood cut from Crown land as being from a private woodlot, and they were dropped with no explanation 10 days before the election. Harvey was named agriculture minister in 2017. Margaret Johnson, a supply teacher by trade, is his Tory opponent. By name recognition alone, Harvey should hold on, but I’m not sure you can count out any rural anglo PC candidate in this political climate.
PC-Liberal tossup

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CRA: 45-33-10-6-5.

https://cra.ca/liberals-lead-narrows-midway-through-2018-nb-election-campaign/