2018 New Brunswick election

[MAINEiac4434]

I always have a hard time telling the difference between Grits and Tories in Atlantic provincial elections. On some issues the Tories seem to run to the left of the Frits, and there was that NDP guy who defected to the PCs.

[Hatman 🍁]

There is quite a bit of a difference between the two, this time.

[JoeyOCanada]

Watching this debate and realizing how bad of a speaker Jennifer McKenzie is...

[Hatman 🍁]

Watching this debate and realizing how bad of a speaker Jennifer McKenzie is...

that's not the impression I got, but I didn't hear the beginning.

[RogueBeaver]

In the debate Higgs accused Gallant of offering him either minister or deputy minister of finance after the 2014 election, which Gallant denied. Higgs signed an affidavit and said he has texts. Unsure what kinda impact this has.

[the506]

Felt like Higgs was going for a knockout blow but it didn't come off that way.

Other than that and McKenzie not knowing when to shut up, not much happened. Don't see too many minds changing.

[DC Al Fine]

In the debate Higgs accused Gallant of offering him either minister or deputy minister of finance after the 2014 election, which Gallant denied. Higgs signed an affidavit and said he has texts. Unsure what kinda impact this has.

Interesting that he brought it up live in a debate instead of having a press conference.

[JoeyOCanada]

Watching this debate and realizing how bad of a speaker Jennifer McKenzie is...

that's not the impression I got, but I didn't hear the beginning.

She just didn't seem well prepared and they kept having to cut her off.

[DC Al Fine]

How did PA and Green leaders do?

[JoeyOCanada]

How did PA and Green leaders do?

David Coon was a very eloquent speaker and did well. Kris Austin just seemed out of place among the hard hitters like Gallant and Higgs.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger has 41L/32C/10PA/8GN. Full writeup is paywalled in a local paper.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger has 41L/32C/10PA/8GN. Full writeup is paywalled in a local paper.

You missed the NDP which is also at 8%.

And that's the real story of this poll. There's no way the NDP is tied with the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum has the Liberals up 37-32-15-11-4

[mileslunn]

People's Alliance seems to be gaining some momentum.  If Forum or Leger or correct this could be a case where split on the right lets the Liberals win.  If you are Maxime Bernier you probably are liking this while for Andrew Scheer quite worried.

[the506]

Interesting how this could shape up to be the 2nd NB election in a row that previews what happens federally the next year. In 2014 Liberals were very up front about using Gallant as a proxy for what works/doesn't with Trudeau.

This time around...a surging PANB only helps the Liberals on the vote split.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking like a minority could be a possibility. A 4-5 point Liberal lead could put them close to the PCs in seat count (the PCs have a seat advantage it seems, with the Liberal vote so concentrated in Franco ridings), and the Greens+PANB will likely win at least 2 seats put together.

[Hatman 🍁]

I really hope the 506 finishes his riding analysis. It would help me analyze our internal polls better

I won't divulge much except to say it looks like there are a few ridings the Greens and PA have a shot outside of the seats they are expected to win in the Fredericton area.

[mileslunn]

Looking like a minority could be a possibility. A 4-5 point Liberal lead could put them close to the PCs in seat count (the PCs have a seat advantage it seems, with the Liberal vote so concentrated in Franco ridings), and the Greens+PANB will likely win at least 2 seats put together.

My guess is in a minority parliament, Greens and NDP (if they win a seat) would back the Liberals whereas People's Alliance would back the PC's so if Liberals + NDP + Greens is over 24, Gallant remains premier, if PCs + PANB is over 24 seats, then Blaine Higgs becomes premier and PC's form government.

[the506]

I really hope the 506 finishes his riding analysis. It would help me analyze our internal polls better

I won't divulge much except to say it looks like there are a few ridings the Greens and PA have a shot outside of the seats they are expected to win in the Fredericton area.

Probably tomorrow!

Spoiler: PA's got a chance on the Miramichi. North shore is all Liberal with some where the PCs have a shot.

[the506]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

[MAINEiac4434]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

Booo

[mileslunn]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

Booo

That probably will help both PCs and Liberals in terms of numbers but not seats.  A weaker NDP should benefit the Liberals while weaker PANB should benefit the PCs.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is at rock bottom, there is no more room to hemorrhage to.

[mileslunn]

The NDP is at rock bottom, there is no more room to hemorrhage to.

What about the PANB, could they fall further.  I would tend to think that would benefit the PCs although being a populist party as opposed to establishment things don't always follow the left/right spectrum, you do get some crossover.  Your thoughts?

[the506]

Not sure if it will help or hurt anyone. Coon wasn't in the CTV debate in 2014 and he did fine.